The 2015 World Series will begin a week from today, October 27th in either Toronto or Kansas City. Free Agency will begin 5 days after the end of the World Series. If the Series were to go 7 games, Game 7 would be November 4th.

So, even if you have little confidence in the Baltimore Orioles being active Free Agent participants, we are likely now only days away until the O’s roster begins to change.

Below, Rob Shields and I trade some thoughts on the Birds.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

 

BSL:  How much confidence do you have that the Orioles are willing to give out a nine figure contract?

Shields: I am in the believe it when I see it mode in terms of his organization handing out a 9 figure deal and that includes the one I think they should be giving to Machado.  So, I have zero confidence that they will do this.  They may be willing to offer one to a player but its not a deal that will come close to signing the player, so what good does that do?

Stoner: I’ve been saying for sometime that I believe the O’s will be willing to make a roughly 5 year $100M offer to Davis; I just think that is going to leave them approximately 2 years and $40-$50M short of a truly competitive offer (compared to what I expect Davis to receive elsewhere).

BSL: Assuming Chen is elsewhere for ’16, the O’s need to replace his 190 innings. It seems realistic that the O’s would look to fill Chen’s spot with the best veteran they can find on a 1 or 2 year deal, 3 at the max. Let’s say that the O’s were able to sign Kazmir for 2 years (probably not realistic) to replace Chen. That would still have the O’s looking for the ACE Duquette identified as a need. David Price and Zack Greinke are not coming to Baltimore. Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann also seem unrealistic. So, where is this #1 starter coming from? With the system limitations, is a trade for a front-end starter (using only MiL talent to obtain) even plausible?

Shields: They won’t have an ace unless Gausman turns into one or they get lucky with a free agent signing.  A guy like Mat Latos has performed as a TOR starter in the past and he should be obtainable this off-season, so going after him makes sense.  Otherwise, with the injuries to Bundy and Harvey, Gausman is our only hope.

Stoner: I’m of the opinion that the O’s best chance for a legitimate front-end starter in ’16, is Gausman taking a leap with his production. I don’t see a match in Free Agency, nor do I think a trade for an ACE is really practical. If you could do a 5 for 1 of Reyes, Sisco, Wright, Walker, and Wilson for Sonny Gray; I’d be all for that. However, with Gray’s currently minimal salary (will be increasing in arbitration), that doesn’t seem realistic to me. Plus other teams would figure to trump that hypothetical O’s offer.

BSL: The Orioles need 2 new outfielders this off-season.  If they aren’t willing to sign a player to a 9 figure contract, how do they obtain the talent they need in the OF?

Shields: If it were me, I would make Heyward and Upton my top 2 FA targets but unless the price tags for either will be a lot lower than most believe, those guys are pipe dreams.  In my recent article, I suggested trading for Marcell Ozuna and signing Rasmus.  Ozuna would be a good move no matter what else you do but I would rather see them spend more on a better player than Rasmus.  A guy to watch could be Gordon.  Jon Heyman talked about how the Os could be interested in him.  He makes some sense if the price tag stays lower because of the missed time.

Stoner: I mean if you lose Davis (or if you prefer the OF’s), you could turn your attention to trying to sign one of Heyward, Cespedes, Upton, or Gordon. Of that group, I’ve written previously that the only one that seems possibly obtainable to me is Upton. For this question, let’s assume he would also take a 9 figure contract (I think he should probably be South of that). Outside of trading Britton, I’m not sure where you finding an impact option, if the higher ends of Free Agency are not available.

I can see the O’s going cheap at 1st – Mancini / Walker / Pearce; and going after an Upton.  If Davis was resigned, I would expect the corner OF spots to be cheap.  Parra struggled with the O’s, and he’s certainly not as good as he was in the 1st half of 2015 for Milwaukee; but I continue to think if you could have him for 2 years he gives you some versatility with some upside. Unfortunately, it seems like he’s likely to get 3-4 years from someone, and that doesn’t interest me.

BSL: Will the O’s offer Wieters a qualifying offer, and if so – will he accept?

Shields: I think they mess things up and fail to offer Wieters a QO.  I don’t see him accepting.

Stoner: I don’t expect the O’s to providing the qualifying offer to Wieters. As for if he would accept? History says he would not, but there will be a first at some point. I do think there is a reasonable argument to be made that if Wieters could show he could catch regularly next year, and hit at his career norms; he could be more attractive on the general market next year. That said, I’m sure Boras can find him a multiple year deal somewhere. Ultimately I think the risk is above 0% that he would decline, but the O’s should be willing to take that risk. I’m sure O’s Scouting Director Gary Rajsich agrees.

BSL: The biggest decision facing the O’s this off-season is?

Shields: The biggest decision is whether or not to pay Machado what it takes to sign him long term.  He is the face of the franchise and locking him as long as we can is something they should be doing.

Stoner: The biggest decision facing the O’s this off-season has already been answered. (Would there be a change in leadership in the Baseball Operations department?) The biggest question now becomes how do the O’s build a team for +/- $120M, that goes into Spring Training looked at as a team that should contend vs. a team that has a chance to contend? If Davis is lost, how do we replace that production? For years now the O’s have had an offense that slugs, but has trouble putting people on-base. How do you improve a rotation that figures to lose Chen, when you won’t be competing for the best FA pitchers on the market? How do you address needs via trade, when your system lacks depth (and the premier talent at the top in Bundy and Harvey have injury concerns)?

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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