The 2015 Winter Meetings begin December 6th in Nashville at the Gaylord Opryland Resort & Convention Center (pictured above). With that date fast-approaching, Baltimore Sports and Life’s (BSL) Orioles Analysts – Gary Armida, Jonathan Bernhardt, and Rob Shields – come together to give their opinions on several O’s related topics.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

BSL: What happens with Davis will obviously impact the roster either way. Some believe the O’s should move on from Davis, thinking that those dollars can be better allocated elsewhere. Others believe he should be a priority, even up to $175M in a total contract. Regardless of where you fall on that spectrum, do you believe the O’s should have an artificial deadline in-place for a deal? i.e. if a deal is not complete by Date X, we are moving on, while other options at-least remain available?

Armida: No, I don’t believe in a deadline for a simple reason; there simply isn’t enough upper echelon free agent talent available to move on to. Aside from Jason Heyward, who is better than Chris Davis? Justin Upton? Ok, sure. Yoenis Cespedes? Maybe, but Cespedes has his warts as well. Instead, I believe that Duquette will do what most General Managers will do. He’ll negotiate with everyone on his list and go from there. I do think the market is going to be very slow for these four hitters. Heyward comes with some injury risk. Despite Upton’s consistency, there is a bit of a stigma about him never really breaking out. Cespedes has one elite half to his credit and some questions about how he’ll fare with a long term deal. And, Davis’ battles have been well documented. All three have their risks and with teams playing the trade market more than ever, a quick signing doesn’t appear to be likely. So, Duquette waits and sees if his allotted budget can get him one the big three hitters. 

Bernhardt: I don’t have much use for artificial deadlines, especially not public-facing ones that are essentially media negotiating tactics. That never really ends well with Scott Boras clients, anyway. The good news is that the Orioles are already treating this with the seriousness it requires, as Peter Angelos is directly involved; Boras loves to negotiate with ownership directly (that was how the Prince Fielder deal got done with Detroit, though that turned out not to be a perfect fit for everyone involved). The drop-off from Davis at the 1B position is such that if they fail to retain him, Justin Morneau et al should still be out there; I don’t think it’s credible for the Orioles to present Morneau (or even Mike Napoli) as a substitute plan for signing Davis either to fans or to Boras in negotiations, and I think that if Baltimore wants to address the 1B hole via trade, that’s not something that really works on one team’s timetable — both teams have to be in the right place at the right time. So I’d hope to see Baltimore competitive in discussions with Davis until he has either signed or made it clear he’s priced himself out of Baltimore’s budget.

Shields:  I wouldn’t say to Davis, sign right now or else we are moving on but I also wouldn’t be waiting for him either.  At this point, the Orioles should know what they are willing to pay for Davis and they should have let him know that.  He isn’t new to them.  They have had him here for a while and at this point, you either are willing to go to the level it will take or you aren’t.  What they can’t let happen is have many other players sign elsewhere as they are “held hostage” by Davis.  Boras clients will sign late sometimes and if this drags into January, i think there is a good chance the Orioles miss out on everyone.

BSL: This past week, BSL looked at the O’s Minor Leagues. General thoughts on the commentary from Nick Faleris (2080 Baseball), and Jonathan Mayo (MLB Pipeline)?

Armida: First off, Nick Faleris and Jonathan Mayo are as good as it gets. I found myself nodding along as I read their answers. Bundy and Harvey have to be developed as starters. Yes, that may be a longer term approach, but the Orioles have two potential elite level arms. Most teams lack even one. Yes, injuries have derailed them, but it is easy to forget that they are still young, Bundy, 23 years old, and Harvey just 21 years old. Both have time, even if the fan base is impatient. With a very good pitching development model, both need to figure out how to navigate through a full season before they can be considered Major League assets. That shouldn’t impact playoff chances for 2016, but it certainly impacts the Orioles’ model for 2017 and beyond. 

Bernhardt: It is what it is. The system hasn’t been outright good in over a decade, and even in recent years the best it’s ever gotten was “three great guys and a prayer.” The team has been very unlucky with injuries to high picks Bundy and Harvey, but Gausman’s struggles to develop into a frontline starter despite being a great polished college package are as much on the Orioles as they are on him, perhaps moreso, and there’s no excuse for the failure to build value in the late rounds that has plagued Baltimore even since MacPhail’s time here. If anything I’m a bit surprised Faleris and Mayo weren’t harsher in their assessment. 

Shields:  It was pretty depressing.  We all know how rough the system is but when it gets articulated by experts who are in constant contact with other teams, scouts, etc…it really sticks the knife in further.  The future of this team is looking bad and I don’t see enough urgency from Duquette to improve it the way they should.  DJ Stewart is extremely important to this franchise and while I don’t think you write him off, his performance last year was extremely troubling.

BSL: Rob recently argued why the Orioles should trade Britton. Rob’s suggested targeted return is, “One player that is or close to ML ready and another prospect not far behind. The return should be 1 top 25ish guy, a top 60ish guy and another guy that is a lower level guy with good upside or a close to ML ready reliever type prospect.” Gary and Jonathan, do you agree here? Rob, it would seem that if you were trading Britton, the priority would be getting cost-controlled positional talent back in return. Is there a player / team you have in-mind?

Armida: I agree if you could get that, but I honestly don’t see Britton having that type of value. Unfortunately, the closer role is really a reputation-type thing. That’s why a Kimbrel nets the Padres such a large return. It’s why the Reds would get a big haul for Chapman. Britton has been excellent and I’ve been a big fan of his work, but I don’t see a team opening up the prospect vault for him. 

Instead, I keep that strength in the bullpen, unless a team overvalues him. Yes, he’s in his arbitration years, but he’ll still be relatively cost-effective. And, more importantly, it’s the one area of the team that Duquette doesn’t have to worry about as he rebuilds the rotation and offense. 

Bernhardt: If you can get that, and if the guys you’re getting are either position players or pitchers who are more or less ready to slot into the MLB staff somewhere, then you do that ten times out of ten. But I don’t think we’re in a climate where that kind of deal can be had anymore. The exec I’d first suspect of jumping for that, Dave Dombrowski, works in Boston now, and he just did one better by acquiring Craig Kimbrel. I imagine if the Washington Nationals deal Papelbon and Storen due to the various clubhouse issues that club is suffering, they’d be an intriguing partner for something like this. But I don’t think that deal exists in the wild right now.

Shields:  The Astros are all in in terms of getting a closer this off-season.  They would certainly be a team worth talking to.  The Cubs are another team as well.  But really, almost any team that fancies themselves a contender and has a good farm system is who you go after.  With the success of the Royals, who depended a lot on their bullpen, teams are trying to emulate that.  So, whether its a team that needs a closer or a team that wants that great back end with multiple pitchers, the market should be pretty big for Britton.

BSL: ESPN recently suggested Yasiel Puig as a potential trade target for the Orioles, with Britton and Gausman mentioned as potential chips. I’m not sure I believe Puig would be a player that Showalter would welcome – what do you think of that idea?

Armida: Puig is a high-end talent, whose troubles have been documented. He’s a guy, at this point, whose value is way down. Would I deal Gausman for him? No. Britton? Probably, only because a closer is infinitely less valuable than an everyday player with Puig’s ceiling. Whether or not Showalter would welcome him is almost irrelevant. If he wants to win, he needs to get the best out of his players. If he were able to unlock the best of Yasiel Puig, the Orioles would have an elite, dynamic presence in the middle of their lineup. 

The thing with all of this is that I don’t see the Dodgers actually trading Puig. Their front office isn’t really about “addition by subtraction” or anything like that. He’s still cost effective and one bad, injury-riddled season doesn’t wipe out that potential. 

Bernhardt: I’m generally against acquiring players with domestic violence arrests because I tend to believe victims and I tend to dislike rooting for players who hit women. From a business perspective, if you think the health stuff is behind him and the Dodgers are actually interested in dealing him, then some kind of package centered around Britton or Gausman — not and, or — with some cheap near-MLB players with little upside for Andrew Friedman to fiddle around with would be about the upper limit of the package I’d offer. As for Buck and the guys already here, I can guarantee that there will be discontented rumbling in the clubhouse within the first couple weeks of his arrival, and I can almost as strongly guarantee that it’ll go away if Puig stays healthy and the Orioles win.

Shields:  Well, you first have to see what ends up happening with his recent legal issue and if the domestic violence policy will ding him for this or not.  Putting that aside, I think if you can get him, it is worth looking into.  I do agree that Buck has to believe that Puig is either misunderstood or just needs a stronger presence to get him in line.  If he believes that, by all  means, look into the move.  If he doesn’t and thinks he is just immature and won’t listen, it is probably better to use whatever resources it takes to get him on something else.  I will say this though.  We don’t really know how much longer Buck will be around and while his opinion matters a lot, ultimately you have to do what is best for the long term good of the franchise.  You can argue that doing something your manager is against isn’t good for the long term good and that may be correct but it may also be a case where Buck himself is wrong about Puig and once he got here, he would realize that. 

BSL: ESPN also looked at where Justin Upton might wind-up, with the O’s listed as an option if Davis signs elsewhere. This mirrors what we’ve said previously. Upton has 4 straight season with an OPS between .785 and .833. By DRS and UZR/150 over the past 4 years, Upton’s been below average, to slightly above.  It’s probably fair to call him ‘average.’ If you are going to point to him playing at Petco this past year, it should be noted his numbers were much better at home. MLBTR projected Upton to receive a 7 year $147M contract – are you comfortable with that?

Armida: Yes, I am all in. Upton has been the most consistent player amongst the free agent hitters. He’s still on the right side of 30 and I’ll take the guy who has averaged 152 games played since 2011. Showing up and consistently putting up above average numbers is important. If I’m Dan Duquette, I’m hoping Davis signs elsewhere and Upton signs in Baltimore.  

Bernhardt: I’m comfortable with it. But I also remain skeptical that Baltimore’s going to be handing out any single contract over $110 million in total value or so — that’s still going to be the richest deal in Baltimore free agent history. I think it’s far more likely Baltimore chases Ben Zobrist, ends up with Matt Joyce, and trumpets that the savings from that signing are what allowed them to ink Yovani Gallardo.

Shields: Absolutely.  He would be my #2 target, behind Heyward.  Alex Gordon is close but the age difference gives the nod to Upton.  The thing I like about Upton is that his worst seasons have still been okay seasons.  The floor seems to be pretty high with him and the ceiling is a perennial AS with the potential of being an MVP candidate.  150M isn’t what it used to be anymore.  With the value of a win going up more and more, he only has to be a 3ish WAR player to be worth that deal.  On top of that, he seemingly still has a few years in his prime, which is unusual for a free agent.  I think if you get him in a better hitting environment(which includes away stadiums as well), you could see him finally be that yearly 30-40 homer guy so many people believe he can be.  Plus, he is from NOVA, which is a bonus and maybe will re-energize him.  It also wouldn’t hurt having another black athlete on the Orioles for the City of Baltimore.  Adam Jones is a great voice in the community and if Upton can be similar, that gives you some nice PR for a city that is hurting right now.

BSL: The other OF that seems plausibly obtainable is Alex Gordon. MLBTR projected a 5 year $105M deal for the KC OF. Would you rather have Gordon at that contract, vs. Davis at 6-7 years and $150-$175M?

Armida: That’s a tough call only because Gordon will be 32 and doesn’t come with the power the Orioles are built upon. Much of Gordon’s value is his elite level defense in left field. As he enters his mid-30’s, can that maintain? If it doesn’t the bat doesn’t compensate for that type of loss. I’d view Gordon as the clear fourth amongst the big free agent hitters, behind Upton, Hayward, and Davis. Gordon and Cespedes, while very different, are similar in terms of value and risk. 

Bernhardt: On those contracts, I’ll take Gordon. If Davis’s market doesn’t develop above 5/$120 million, I’m back to Davis. Gordon’s the best all-around LF in baseball right now and I’m not too worried about his age becoming an issue until the last year, perhaps two, of a five year deal. I’d like to see the Orioles maintain good team defense — that was a cornerstone of their successful 2014 team — and I don’t think Baltimore has a realistic shot at Upton or Heyward, though I’m sure their reps will be dropping the Orioles’ name in the media to help along negotiations with their real targets.

Shields:  Easily Gordon.  He’s not that much older than Davis and, much like Upton, I believe he has a relatively high floor, which isn’t the case for Davis(see 2014).  Gordon doesn’t have the power Davis brings but I could see him hit more homers in OPACY vs Royals Stadium.  He has been a 20ish homer guy but that also usually comes with a lot of doubles.  Some of those doubles in KC would be homers in Baltimore.  On top of that, he is an excellent defensive player at a more important position, is a better average hitter and has a more consistent walk rate, although it probably won’t be better than Davis in a normal Davis season.  I just don’t see Davis being worth another 2 years and another 40-70M dollars. 

BSL: It seems highly unlikely that the O’s would get involved with Cespedes or Heyward. I like the ability of both, and particularly like Heyward’s age. What I don’t like about Heyward is his degenerative back condition. It sounds like Heyward might get as much as 10 years $200M from someone (New York?), so others don’t seem overly bothered by that. How do you see things playing out with Heyward, and in an alternative reality, should he have been the priority this winter for the O’s?

Armida: Alternate reality…yes, the Orioles go all in on the young outfielder whose game isn’t predicated on power and has already shown elite level ability. Much of Heyward’s perceived value is in the fact that he had the audacity not to live up to Bobby Cox’s proclamation that he’s the next Hank Aaron. Heyward will get his $200 million from someone. He’s an ideal fit for the Yankees, who need his athleticism, youth, on base ability, and high ceiling. But, if they are sticking to a budget, he’s on the market a year too early. A team will surprise us with the big contract and given his age, they’ll get good value for it. 

Bernhardt: If the market falls out from under Cespedes — and if the market’s going to fall out from under anyone in that tier of player, it’s going to be him — then sure, I’d love to see the Orioles sign him to something like 4/$75 million. But I don’t think he’ll be there for that. Heyward, there’s no chance he’ll fall into anything reasonable — the Cardinals, Yankees, Angels and a couple other teams are going to be duking it out over him. The Orioles don’t compete in that market segment.

Shields:  First of all, I wouldn’t come close to signing Cespedes to the deal he will get.  That will be a regrettable deal IMO.  As for Heyward, I would be all in on him.  I think his total game is worth taking the chance on.  Again, 20 million just isn’t that much for a player anymore and his 27 y/o season(in baseball age) isn’t actually until 2017.  You never get free agents this young and unlike most FAs, he still has a higher ceiling he can reach.  Most free agents are declining and you can make the argument that he could still be ascending, especially if you get him out of the pitcher’s parks that he has been in for his career.    As for his back, it could be an issue when he is older and that is certainly a concern but I also think the last 3ish years of that deal could be a time where he is essentially playing for free because he will have already been worth the contract before that time comes.  As for how it will play out, I expect him to end up with the Yankees more than anyone else.  I think the Giants, Cubs and Angels are also teams to watch.  He will get 8-10 years at 20-22M a year.

BSL: Perhaps unfairly, my perception is that Baltimore has long had issues with walking and chewing gum at the same time. Meaning it feels like they can not do X, until Y has been settled. This ties back to our initial question with Davis. It’s understandable that the O’s can not look at larger moves until there is resolution with Davis. They could be moving on smaller 1 to 3 year deals though.  Guys that have been mentioned repeatedly like Mat Latos, Neftali Feliz, David Hernandez, Tony Sipp. Even potentially Scott Kazmir.  On Sunday, MASN suggested Denard Span for RF. What deals of this ilk would you like to see the O’s accomplish prior to the Winter Meetings next week?

Armida: Like I said at the start, I see no reason why the Orioles would wait for one thing to happen before negotiating or moving on something else. The Blue Jays have set the mid-tier pitching market with their signing of JA Happ and re-signing of Marco Estrada. Unlike the big ticket item market, both hitters and starting pitchers, the mid-tier starting pitcher market will move quickly. In my mind, the Orioles have, for better or worse, three rotation spots filled with Gausman, Tillman, and Jimenez. As much as I like the idea of a flier on Mat Latos, that’s not what they need. They already have Jimenez to fill that role. Any pitcher that slots into that three year, $12 to $15 million per slot should be signed quickly. Kazmir would be a nice signing. Yovani Gallardo is another name in that mix. If the Orioles want to spend a bit more, Mike Leake would be a nice move. I don’t believe the reports that the Orioles can get an elite hitter and an upper echelon pitcher. So, I’d go with the same approach as the Blue Jays here. But, if Duquette is going to wait, as he has done the past couple winters, these pitchers will be off the board. 

Bernhardt: Duquette’s offseason pace is ponderous, and I doubt this year will be any exception. This sort of deal vulturing has worked out for Baltimore precisely once during his tenure — the one-year deal to Nelson Cruz — and by the time the Warehouse gets serious about this offseason, most of the guys in that middle tier will be gone. That’s just how these things go. Latos could be interesting, assuming he’s not a complete headcase at this point; given the speed Baltimore moves at, however, I suspect he ends up here only if three or four other teams give him a hard look and pass on him, which should set off some alarms.

Shields: Latos should be the main pitching target.  He won’t require a long term deal, he has tons of upside, was unlucky last year(in some ways) and is still just 28.  You mentioned some of the names I am interested in.  Guys like Sipp and Feliz are good names for the pen.  I recently mentioned Masterson.  That is another guy worth looking into.  Hyun Soo Kim is an intriguing guy if you can get cheaply.  He could be a nice value for one of the CO spots.

BSL: FOX Sports had an article this past week stating we should look for the 2nd tier starters to sign before Price and Grienke. They looked at Chen, and his potential AAV. My takeaway was that it’s just another reason why you can’t trade someone like Gausman, who you control for years at a minimal price. Maybe Gausman never reaches his ceiling, but you just can’t build a rotation through FA arms. What is your opinion?

Armida: Completely agree. There’s no way I deal Gausman. He needs to get a shot at 30 starts in each of the next couple of seasons. There’s way too much potential for them to deal away. As I alluded to before, the mid-tier market will still cost a good chunk of change. If the Orioles can get even mid-level production from Gausman, they win. If he comes close to his ceiling, it’s a huge advantage. 

Bernhardt: I’m dubious about the Orioles being able to develop Gausman into an effective starter, but unless the return you’re getting back for him is a return that respects his upside, you don’t deal him — and you certainly don’t do another Arrieta deal for a midseason rental. It’s one thing when another club effortlessly fixes your problem prospect and turns him into the NL Cy Young Award winner; it’s another when the only thing you have to show for it is a couple middling second-half starts from Scott Feldman.

Shields:  Gausman isn’t untouchable but it would take a ML ready cost controlled positional talent that you feel has elite upside for me to trade him.  I am not interested in dealing Gausman for a guy who is owed a bunch of money.  That defeats the purpose IMO.

BSL: The Baltimore Sun reported this week that the O’s have interest in Yovani Gallardo. Camden Chat argued here why they think it could make sense. Thoughts here?

Armida: I put Gallardo in the same class as Scott Kazmir. If I can get him for a two to three year deal at $12 million or so per season, it’s fine. I wasn’t high on him heading into Texas last season, but he’s made enough adjustments to be a solid mid-level pitcher. 

Bernhardt: He probably costs you a pick and Ubaldo Jimenez money. I wouldn’t do it personally, but I’ve already more or less mentally resigned myself to him or someone like him being the centerpiece of the offseason.

Shields:  He makes no sense.  You lose a pick, you lose 50ishM dollars and you get a mediocre pitcher for 4 years. Yes, he is durable and he does get ground balls but he has troubling peripheral stats and will be playing his entire contract on the wrong side of 30.  I wouldn’t take him for 1 year.  This isn’t the type of player you lose a pick for, especially one in the middle of the first round.  But hey, he does fit the Dan Duquette definition of a TOR starter, since he is a #3! 

BSL: Japanese RHP Kenta Maeda has asked to be posted. FanGraphs looked at what a potential contract might look like (inclusive of the posting fee) here. Should Baltimore have interest at that suggested level?

Armida: No. Sure, the Orioles might miss out on the next Hisashi Iwakuma, but I truly believe they need more sure things. They need to know that each dollar that is put into the team is put into a solid investment. Maeda may be talented, but I’m not willing to gamble. 

Bernhardt: A 6-year, $85 million commitment with a $20 million posting fee is a hefty price to pay for a guy whose downside comp is Rick Porcello and upside comp is Jordan Zimmermann. “A younger Yovani Gallardo” doesn’t set my heart on fire either. My suspicion is that even if the Orioles did bid on Maeda, and won that bid, they wouldn’t be able to come to a deal — and that’s not even touching the fact that the Orioles seem like the sort of team that’s ideologically opposed to paying a $20 million posting fee.

Shields:  He doesn’t seem to have the elite upside other guys have had that have come from Japan.  Now, he does sound like he can be a solid option and if he can come here and give you what Chen did, he will be worth it.  I just don’t think I want to pay that money for him when you have what I feel are better options out there.  Now, if the estimates of the posting fee plus the contract are higher than he ends up getting, that may change things. The one thing that bothers me about this is that the Orioles aren’t even willing to play the game with these guys. They won’t even submit a bid.  If you told them right now that they could get Chen value out of him for the posting fee and contract he is expected to get, they probably still don’t act on it.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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