As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to begin their 2015 season, BSL’s O’s Analysts (Jonathan Bernhardt, Patrick Dougherty, Jeff Long, and myself) have come together roundtable style to preview the year.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Question 1)  The Orioles have 3 very good young arms in Gausman, Harvey and Bundy.  Each of them, when healthy, are viewed as elite talents but they each have different questions surrounding them as we enter the 2015 season.  Do you feel any different about any or all of these guys than you did in July of 2014?

Bernhardt: I think their stock’s dropping, both as major league arms and as trade chips, and I don’t have much faith that this regime is willing to make the hard choice and deal, say, Bundy for someone they know can contribute instead of playing out the string on him. I continue to wonder why the organization is prioritizing roster flexibility over stable development in the case of Kevin Gausman when they’re more than willing to allow, say, Jonathan Schoop to learn on the job at the MLB level while putting up a .598 OPS over the full season; I’d prefer to see him in a rotation somewhere — either Baltimore or Norfolk — rather than doing this option dance. As for Harvey, I still think it’s too early to tell with him, but I’m frustrated by the freak injury in camp this year while he’s still trying to re-establish himself after being shut down last year.

Dougherty: Yeah. I’m more concerned that Bundy never becomes a contributor at the Major League level, and that the Orioles hold onto him for so long hoping something works out that they run out of rope with which to trade him to a team hoping for a rebound. I’ve been impressed with Gausman, and I think getting some more control of his secondary pitches will turn him into a monster, but I’m worried that with a plethora of good-enough starters, he won’t get the reps he needs to be the stud pitcher we’ve all wanted for so long. I’m far more pessimistic during the season than I am during the offseason.

Long: Prospects have ups and downs, but I don’t think anything has actually changed in the last year. We knew there would be question about Bundy’s rehab, whether Gausman could use his slider at the MLB level, and whether Harvey could deliver on all of his promise. I think Gausman has breakout potential, so I’m excited to see what comes from his 2015 season. Harvey has rocketed up prospect lists, I just want to see him stay healthy for a full season at this point and work on maintaining his mechanics. Bundy is the biggest question mark. I think we all want him to be dominant out there, but the reality is that his command is still working it’s way back. That’ll be his focus for 2015, fine-tuning his post-op command.

Shields:  Mid July was a point to use because it gave us more time to see Bundy after the surgery, Harvey just pitching more and its before Gausman really started to get the ball every 5th day.  For me, I feel very good about Harvey provided he stays healthy.  We have heard many good things about his health and that’s encouraging.  Now, he has the leg injury but that actually could be a  good thing as he could be available for the Orioles late in the year when otherwise he likely wouldn’t.  We still don’t know what we have in Gausman, which is a big reason why I want him in the rotation.  He still has question marks but they won’t be answered if he isn’t on a ML mound starting every 5th day.  Bundy is the big question mark.  Whether its stuff or injuries, his stock has dropped.  With the plan, at least for now, for him to throw only 100 innings this year, he is a few years way from giving us real starter innings.  I hope he has a big first half(or at least looks like he is getting his old stuff back) and he is able to be dealt for a key guy that has multiple years of service time left.

Question 2) Beyond the pitchers just mentioned, what prospects stand out to you as guys you look forward to seeing how they develop in 2015?

Bernhardt: There’s a reason every publication is putting the Orioles at the bottom of their org lists going into the season, sadly. Not much of what Baltimore has done in the draft outside the top first round picks has done much to impress people over the past few years, but at the very least it’s good that the places where the team does have moderately interesting secondary prospects — Walker at 1B, Alvarez in COF — are places where the big league team doesn’t have guys signed for a long time blocking them.

Dougherty: I’m not much of a prospect guy because I have trouble translating MiLB results into MLB results. I don’t feel bad about that because so do teams and so do players. Probably a copout since they’re the two most common names you hear, but I’m interested to see Dariel Alvarez and Christian Walker. Alvarez is already 26, and would need to be less in development mode and more in translating to the bigs mode.

Long: There’s not much to get excited about in the minors besides Harvey. I do want to see what kind of seasons two guys have though. I want to see if Chance Sisco can continue to develop as a catcher, while his hitting continues to improve. I’m also eager to see how Jomar Reyes responds to getting more games under his belt.

Shields:  A few guys stand out to me.  Does Sisco continue to hit and can he improve his defense? How does Mike Wright look and will he put himself in position to be a bullpen contributor late in the year?  Does Jomar Reyes continue to look like a very good power prospect?  Does Walker look like a guy who can take over for Davis after the year?  Is Alvarez as good as Buck thinks he is?  And does Connaughton end up playing baseball and how does he develop? This isn’t a deep system right now but between these names and the upcoming draft, this system could look much improved soon.

Question 3) When you look at the Orioles likely roster, what stands out to you, good or bad?

Bernhardt: I see a lot of stability up the middle, and a lot of question marks at the corners — Machado at 3B being the only notable exception here. I’m not sure a full season of Alejandro de Aza and Travis Snider in the outfield corners is tenable for a team that wants to win the AL East unless Chris Davis returns to 2013 form and Steve Pearce stays in 2014 form. This is a roster with very little margin for error — if one of the big guys gets hurt for a long time, that could throw the season wildly out of whack. As far as the roster goes, the ratio between lineup stalwarts (most of whom came over from MacPhail’s tenure) to AAAA situational/bench players is shifting more and more in the latter’s favor. You can’t platoon everywhere.

Dougherty: The main thing I notice is kind of good and bad. The Orioles as a team have very few true weaknesses, which is great. Each of their starters and platoons is worthy of a Major League role. They rarely put in bench players that actively hurt the team. Avoiding mistakes goes a long way towards a good season. At the same time, upgrading is really difficult. There are no obvious places to swap out a scrub with a great FA or trade pickup, and there’s little chance that a prospect can come in, get reps, and/or make a difference quickly. Everyone’s good enough, but everyone also has a flaw that can be exploited. The team is solid, but attacking individual cracks in the armor is possible.

Long: I think this is a high-volatility roster. If everything goes right this could be a high-90 win team. There’s also a significant potential for collapse with the club winning 75 or fewer games in 2015. Duquette’s emphasis on the bench helps maintain a higher baseline performance I think, but it’ll be interesting to see how some of the O’s most volatile players (Machado, Hardy, Young, Gausman, etc.) perform this coming season.

Shields:  For the bad, I see the injuries.  This team needs a very good defense and Hardy being out is a problem.  Hopefully he will be okay long term.  For the good?  Balance.  This isn’t a team that is likely to beat themselves and they have a lot of depth.

Question 4) O’Day ended the year poorly, Britton doesn’t get Ks(but he does miss bats) and Hunter is a good but not great reliever.  How good do you think the back end of the bullpen will be in 2015?

Bernhardt: It should be fine; the bullpen is probably one of the areas of least concern for Baltimore, especially at the back end. That’s one area where Duquette’s plug-and-play, low cost philosophy has worked out pretty well, and there’s some interesting minor-league depth to come up and fill shoes if one guy or another doesn’t work out: T.J. McFarland, Ryan Webb, eventually guys like Wright and Berry — the Orioles might want to especially look into trying to take Wright and Berry down the Britton route, given the starter logjam. We’ll see.

Dougherty: It’ll be good; 2/3 of the names you listed are just flat-out good pitchers. O’Day will get right and Britton is going to continue to be very good. Hunter always has a chance to give up some fireworks. We won’t be ending games in the 6th inning any more, but the 8th and 9th innings are going to be tough for opponents.

Long: I’m not worried about the bullpen at all, I think the guys that we expect to be good will pitch well enough and we’ll have other names (Brach for example) step up in big ways.

Shields:  I think these guys will be collectively worse in 2015 than they were in 2014.  I am not sure that it will be enough to make a difference though.

Question 5) OBP has been an issue for recent Orioles teams.  For 2015, will that improve?  Why or why not?

Bernhardt: No, it won’t. Almost every hitter on the club is a finished product, and the major one who isn’t — Jonathan Schoop — shows little interest in OBP, and his coaches show little interest in changing that. Snider had a decent enough year last year for walks — .338 OBP — but that’s not who he’s been for the rest of his career. This isn’t a problem as long as they lead the league in HR again, but without massive seasons from Davis, Pearce, or some other surprise source, I don’t see that happening.

Dougherty: Probably not significantly. The Orioles make their OBP money in power hitters who can take a walk, not on-base artists. I don’t see that changing significantly after an offseason with no major moves.

Long: We might see minor gains from Schoop or Machado. Pearce getting more PAs might raise it a bit, but in general I don’t see a big jump coming anytime soon.

Shields:  I don’t see a big jump but I do see improvement.  I don’t think they will be near the bottom of the AL this year.  May not be much more than average at best but still, an improvement should happen.

Question 6) It can be argued that the defense is the best part of this team. However, right now, they are dealing with the Wieters and Hardy injuries.  If these injuries take a while to heal and they are out longer than we anticipate, what impact will that have on the defense and the pitching staff in general?

Bernhardt: I think any length of time without JJ Hardy is tantamount to disaster for a team whose starting pitching is as uninspiring on their own merits as Baltimore’s. I’m less worried about the catching situation due to Joseph’s 2014, but if Hardy’s gone for more than a week or two the Orioles could have a serious problem on their hands.

Dougherty: The staff and defense did pretty well with Caleb Joseph last year, right? I think if Wieters is out, the O’s miss the bat more than the glove. And let’s be honest, most teams see a catcher who can hit as a bonus. I don’t want to lose Hardy, who is on the other side of things. His glove is terrific and it’s hard to imagine Flaherty doing well in extended time at SS. It would bump up the BABIP and force our pitchers to cross their fingers a little more often.

Long: Joseph is a better defensive catcher than Wieters, so that’s honestly not much of a loss at all. If Hardy is out for a long time though, that could become a much bigger issue, though Everth Cabrera is certainly capable enough to fill that spot for a few weeks.

Shields:  The Orioles can withstand Wieters being out longer, at least defensively. Hardy is a big one though.  Just can’t afford to have him out for a sustained period of time.  The defense he provides is huge to how this team, and more importantly the pitching staff, is put together.

Question 7) How would you handle the OF situation as we enter the season?  Who would make the roster if you were making the decision?  How would you split up the playing time?

Bernhardt: Depends on Steve Pearce. If Steve Pearce is hitting RHP, then you’re golden to rotate him between LF and DH, with Delmon Young DHing when Pearce is in LF and De Aza in LF when Pearce is DHing — you’d work this rotation to keep Young away from LHP. If Pearce returns to being a platoon guy, then he and Young are the DH platoon, and De Aza is the everyday left fielder. I think Snider should be allowed to play RF everyday until he shows he doesn’t deserve that job. If none of these guys perform well enough to be worth a starting job, you’ve got much bigger problems than the precise rotation of playing time.

Dougherty: That’s a loaded question that deserves a long writeup like Jeff’s. Instead of getting into too many details, I’ll say that I’d like to see Jones full time in CF. Is that enough? No? Okay, then I’d like to see De Aza, Snider, Pearce, and a healthy Reimold getting the majority of corner outfield reps. Pearce can also play 1B and DH, and Reimold is a good enough hitter to DH, so they can get ABs without an OF slot.

Long: I talked about this quite a bit in my piece on potential O’s lineups, so I won’t get into this too much. Suffice it to say that (unfortunately) Delmon Young seems like a big contributor this season.

Shields:  De Aza and Snider start everyday vs righties until either or both show they shouldn’t get significant playing time.  Pearce is in the vs lefties(Pearce also plays vs righties at other positions as well).  If healthy, I prefer Reimold over Young but its tough to rely on Reimold.  Young was very good at what he was asked to do last year but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance and having him on the team is a roster spot I wish we had back right now.  Lough starts on the DL and I am sure his recovery will be “slow”.  When he comes back, he is a solid guy to have off the bench.

Question 8) If Ithe O/U was set at 4 fWAR for Manny Machado in 2015, what would you take?

Bernhardt: I’m no fWAR fan; I think it’s a black box stat and I think its defensive input, UZR, is bunk. That said, UZR loves it some Manny Machado, so as long as he’s healthy and does what he needs to do in the field I’ll take the over.

Dougherty: Assuming health, it’s an easy over for me. The kid has been on pace to put up 4+ fWAR in every season in the bigs. There’s no reason for me to think he quits now. His defense alone is worth 2-3 fWAR! I love having one of the best young players in baseball.

Long: Easy over.

Shields:  I take the over.  Health is obviously the key and probably the reason you take the under.  I think the knee injuries will be past him.  I also believe he will take a step forward offensively and flirt with an 800ish OPS this year.  Could be a dark horse MVP candidate this year, like he was a few years back.

Question 9) If the Orioles struggle in 2015, what is the most likely reason?

Bernhardt: Roster complacency. The team’s been noncompetitive in free agency and no longer has the organizational depth to add pieces via trade. One or two injuries — like to Hardy — could have a ripple effect that dooms the club, just because there’s no one to pick up the slack.

Dougherty: Injuries and a mediocre rotation. If Hardy and Machado go down, Wieters struggles to stay healthy, and Davis has another lingering oblique issue, our infield defense is all but blown up, and so is most of our offense. That would kill a rotation that relies so heavily on the players behind it. Alternatively, if one pitcher implodes, we have another to take his place. If two or three go down in flames, there’s suddenly a home run derby at Camden Yards every night.

Long: I think it’s what I hinted at before. There are just a lot of guys on this roster that are volatile and have a wide array of possible outcomes for their performance next season. It probably won’t be any one thing, but a combination of things that cause them to struggle.

Shields:  Not talented enough.  They should have done more in the off-season and didn’t.  Hope it doesn’t come back to bite them.  This team has depth but you can question how quality the depth is if they have injury issues or a guy like Davis really struggles again.  T

Question 10) Who is the most underrated Oriole?  Most overrated?

Bernhardt: I’ll take Chris Tillman for overrated, but I’ve been a skeptic on that guy his entire career. I think he’s an average starter who gets picked up a lot by his defense, and there’s nothing wrong with that, but he got an All-Star appearance two years ago out of it and now there’s talk of trying to lock him down with an extension, and I just don’t see that being necessary. Underrated is a tough one. Outside of Baltimore I feel like it might be Chris Davis; the combination of his PED suspension and his hitting upon return have caused a lot of people who aren’t predisposed to root for him to write him off entirely. I think he’ll surprise some people this season.

Dougherty: So many of these players are properly rated, it’s very difficult to say. I’m going to go with “on a national scale,” since I like to think that most Orioles fans, or at least most BSL readers, are pretty educated on the strengths and weaknesses of the roster. So on a national level, I’d say Adam Jones is overrated? Maybe? Some NL GM said they’d take him over Trout for some old-baseball reason, and that leads me to think that there are lots of people out there who see highlight reel catches and deep bombs and think that he must be a mystical talent. He’s really good, don’t get me wrong, but that Jones-over-Trout thing needed to be addressed. He’s one of the best players in baseball, but there are guys you’d take before him. Most underrated? Probably De Aza. Markakis left big character/community shoes here in Baltimore, and it’s natural but wrong to compare De Aza’s on-field contributions with Nick’s on-field AND community contributions. Heck, De Aza was almost waived by the White Sox last year, and I’m pretty confident in saying he’ll be worth more than Markakis in 2015 and for the duration of Markakis’ tenure with the Braves.

Long: I think Jones is probably the most overrated player on the team. He’s a good player, great guy for the organization for sure. He’s just not a star like many make him to be. Honestly, he’s the closest thing to a star the O’s have, so it makes sense that he gets that reputation. The most underrated Oriole is, in my mind anyway, Darren O’Day. Here’s a complete list of relievers who have posted better ERA- from 2009-2014: Kimbrel (38), Davis (43), Rivera (45), Uehara (49), O’Flaherty (51). O’Day’s 51 ERA- is T-5th best over that time period, but he’s thrown 50 more innings than the next closest guy.

Shields: Jones is easily the most overrated.  That’s not to say he isn’t good but he is put on a pedestal of one of the top players in the game.  I don’t see that.  I see a very solid guy that can help you in many ways but he isn’t elite and that is how people seem to look at him.  Underrated for me in Miguel Gonzalez.  IMO, he is easily one of the 5 best starting pitchers this team has.  The problem is, he is also the guy you look at and aren’t sure how deep into games you can trust him to go.  That being said, for the innings he does provide, he is very good despite what the peripherals say.

Question 11) Who is the most important player for the Orioles in 2015?

Bernhardt: Well, the most valuable player is probably going to be Manny Machado, but he’s paradoxically less important to the team’s overall performance for it — barring injury, we essentially know what we’re getting out of Machado. The team’s fortunes are going to hinge on who can step up and replace the production loss of Nelson Cruz, and I think in that context, we’re looking at a tie between Steve Pearce and Chris Davis.

Dougherty: Oh boy, at issue with this question is what important or valuable really means. For what it’s worth, my high school lacrosse team gave out a Most Outstanding Player award at the end of the season that was much easier to parse. Anyway, for me, it’s Machado. He could reasonably end up being the most productive Oriole by WAR, his defense at third can cover up some average pitching and patch over a potential substitute shortstop if Hardy spends any DL time, and his young-and-improving bat could be a huge wild card.

Long: I think Machado is the most important player, because if he has the breakout season I think he’s on the cusp of, then he will cover up some of the other flaws that could expose themselves over the course of a full season.

Shields: Chris Davis.  We just don’t know what he is going to give us.  He can be awful or elite.  If he can be very good or better, I feel pretty good about this team.  Manny is in the running for me as well but I don’t worry about what he gives us if he is healthy.

Question 12) Turning our attention to the rest of the rest of the AL, what stands out to you about the AL East and how good do you think the division is?

Bernhardt: I think we’re looking at a lot of teams who are experimenting with the idea that you can cheap out on pitching and still win games. I’m looking specifically at Baltimore, Boston and Tampa Bay, here, with Toronto getting an honorable mention for not addressing their pitching situation over the off-season and just hoping the kids were ready. I think Baltimore and maybe Toronto have the defensive chops to carry that strategy. I think Boston’s going to be fun to watch, because they’ll score a lot of runs and give up a lot of runs.

Dougherty: The dearth of starting pitching is actually astounding to me. This will be a tight race, but it seems like the teams that made moves were doing so as if it was a tight game, stacking bats and bullpens rather than high-quality starters. If Tanaka is healthy, he’s the only first-tier producer in the bunch. As far as the quality of the division, I’d take any team in the East in a 7-game series against nearly any other team in baseball. They can all hit, they can all field, they all have bullpens, and they all have decent-enough starters. If any team can win the AL East, any AL East team can win a playoff series.

Long: It should be an interesting race to the playoffs in the AL East because all five teams have a lot of talent. I think it won’t be dubbed the “most competitive” division in baseball because the teams will seem underwhelming, but they’ll all beat up on each other a bit over the season. I suspect all five teams will end up with between 80 and 90 wins.

Shields:  I think Tampa is better than some seem to give them credit for.  I think Boston has pitching question marks but has the MiL talent to go out and get guys they want.  Toronto has a chance to be very good but they need their young talent to be good quickly, especially the pitching.  NY isn’t a team to sleep on but they are a bomb waiting to explode with the injuries and age they potentially have.  Tanaka may be the most important player in the division.  Their defense will be improved.  All in all, its a solid division with the upside of being the best in the game but things need to go right for most of the teams for that to be the case.

Question 13) How do you view the AL as a whole?

Bernhardt: I think the fall from grace of Texas has startled a lot of people, both last year and now this season, and that the true power in the West might actually be LAA for the next year or two. I think Detroit’s about to get toppled as well, but it’s hard to say if that’ll happen this season or next — David Price should buy them some time. I see the White Sox and Mariners on the rise more than any other teams, though the Royals remain dangerous in their own way.

Dougherty: It’s hard to say. There were so many shakeups to the status quo this offseason. The AL playoff spots were becoming stale recently, between BAL/BOS/NYY, DET, and OAK/LAA. The same 6 teams were great every year, and the team talent drops off considerably after that, so every year a good team was pulled from a hat to join the playoff race. I don’t see the same level of prospects in the AL as I do in the NL. The best of the best match up well, but there’s a steep cliff after that, I think.

Long: The NL is very top heavy whereas the American League has a lot of parity it would seem. I think that makes people think the AL is down this year, but it’s really just that the AL has a lot of depth as opposed to high end teams like the Nats or Dodgers.

Shields:  I think there are 11 teams in the AL that could all be in the playoffs.  I would say Texas, TB, Minn and Hous are the only teams I would rule out and even those teams have some intriguing talent.  But, the AL lacks an elite team imo.  A lot of quality depth though.

Question 14) Switching leagues, what are your thoughts on the NL?

Bernhardt: I think I’ll be tired of hearing about the Cubs by early June. They’ve got a stacked league in the NL, with the only clear also-rans being Milwaukee, Arizona, Philadelphia, and Colorado. Even clubs like Cincinnati and the Mets could come out of nowhere to contest the Wild Card, and if the Padres put on a good showing this season everyone’s going to be talking about how quickly they “rebuilt.” As they should.

Dougherty: The NL feels so stacked between the entire Central division, the Nats, and the top of the NL West. Even the Marlins and the Mets should be good! I think the NL is the better league right now and in the near future, which is devastating because it’ll validate everyone in St. Louis who thinks pitchers should hit. I will say that the worst teams in the NL are worse than the worst of the NL, though.

Long: The National League is very top heavy. The only really interesting story-lines there, to me anyway, are whether the Mets and their young pitching staff can make a run for a wild card, and if the Padres new-look outfield will translate into wins.

Shields: They have the 2 best teams in baseball in the Dodgers and Nats.  St Louis may be #3.  Some like Pittsburgh a lot as well.  The wild card spots are wide open and a lot of teams could get those spots but the division winners are pretty much set imo.

Question 15) Prediction time.  Give us your division winners, wild card winners, league MVPs, Cy Youngs and ROYs.  Who is in the World Series and who wins it all? 

American League

Bernhardt: Baltimore, Detroit, LAA, Oakland (WC1), Chicago (WC2)
Dougherty: Baltimore, Detroit, LAA, Boston (WC1), Cleveland (WC2)
Long: Boston, Detroit, LAA, Seattle (WC1), Baltimore (WC2)
Shields: Boston, Cleveland, Seattle, Baltimore (WC1), LAA (WC2)

National League

Bernhardt: Washington, St. Louis, LAD, SD (WC1), NY (WC2)
Dougherty: Washington, St. Louis, LAD, SD (WC1), Pitt (WC2)
Long: Washington, St. Louis, LAD, SD (WC1), NY (WC2)
Shields: Washington, St. Louis, LAD, SF (WC1), Miami (WC2)

 

Playoffs

Bernhardt: AL Champ: LAA, NL Champ: Washington, WS Champ: Washington
Dougherty: AL Champ: LAA, NL Champ: Washington, WS Champ: Washington
Long: AL Champ: NA, NL Champ: San Diego, WS Champ: San Diego
Shields: AL Champ: Seattle, NL Champ: Washington, WS Champ: Seattle

Award Winners

Bernhardt: AL MVP: Trout, NL MVP: Upton, AL CY: Price, NL CY: Harvey, AL ROY: Rodon, NL ROY: Bryant

Dougherty: AL MVP: Trout, NL MVP: Harper, AL CY: Tanaka, NL CY: Kershaw, AL ROY: NA, NL ROY: Bryant

Long: AL MVP: Trout, NL MVP: Stanton, AL CY: Hernandez, NL CY: Kershaw, AL ROY: Castillo, NL ROY: Bryant

Shields: AL MVP Trout, NL MVP: Stanton, AL CY: Hernandez, NL CY: Kershaw, AL ROY: Pompey, NL ROY: Bryant

 

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

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