Baltimore Orioles: March 2020 Top Prospects 15-1

Zach Spedden, Bob Phelan, and myself continue our series ranking the Orioles Top 30 prospects.

You can find our previous article on numbers 30-16 here.

You can hear us discuss the Top 30 on our On The Verge podcast.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

15) OF Kyle Stowers – 22 years old/ Competitive Balance B, 2019/ Stanford

The 6’3” left-handed hitting outfielder showcased his powerful swing with the Ironbirds last season, hitting 13 doubles and six home runs in 55 games, earning an All-Star nod in his first professional season. Stowers has a big swing from the left side that will result in a lot of home runs, but also a lot of strikeouts with his current approach. Per Baseball America, he ranked among the top 5% in average exit velocity while at Stanford and the hard hits continued in limited action as a pro. If he can show that he can hit for average, Stowers’ ceiling is that of a starting left fielder for the Orioles, joining Hays and Yusniel Diaz as a possible impressive starting outfield in 2023.

14) LHP Drew Rom – 20 years old/ 4th round, 2018/ Highlands HS (KY)

If you want a potential breakout pitching prospect in 2020, Drew Rom is a solid choice. With a fastball that sits 88-92 mph, Rom has three secondary pitches which he has above-average command of and the ability to miss plenty of bats (30.3% strikeout rate in 2019). At 6’2” and 170 pounds, Rom still has a bit of projection left in his frame and a slight bump in velocity will take his stuff up a notch as he prepares to face more advanced hitters. It was hard to remember that he was just 19 years old when he went 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA (2.74 FIP), a 1.22 WHIP, .227 average against, and a 0.47 HR/9 IP rate with the Shorebirds in 2019. Rom has a ceiling similar to Alex Wells, Zac Lowther, and Keegan Akin (back-end starter), but of the four southpaws, Rom’s ceiling slightly rises above the rest.

13) SS Adam Hall – 20 years old/ 2nd round, 2017/ Canada

Among the names on the top half of our Top 30 list here, Adam Hall may be the most polarizing due to his extreme range of potential outcomes. Hall had a solid year at the plate last season in Delmarva, slashing .298/.385/.395 with 31 extra-base hits (5 HR) and a 133 wRC+. His speed is elite (33 stolen bases in ‘19) and watching him turn routing singles into doubles is exciting, but can he develop into an everyday starter in the big leagues? Hall doesn’t possess much power and posted a meager .097 ISO in 2019 and owns a career strikeout rate of around 22% in the minor leagues, not exciting numbers from someone who won’t deposit balls over the fence. However, Hall gets on base at a high clip, can drive the ball into the gaps and still finds ways to get on base (including 33 HBP in 184 games). If he can continue this trend in the upper minors, there’s a path to the second base job in Baltimore.

12) RHP Hunter Harvey – 25 years old/ 1st round, 2013/ Bandys HS (NC)

It took more than six years, however, Hunter Harvey and his glorious mane just might have found himself a home in the major leagues. Despite an extreme list of injuries over his career, Harvey has appeared within the Top 15 on MLB Pipeline’s list of top Orioles prospects every year since being drafted because of his dominating stuff. Now in the bullpen, Harvey’s stuff played up last season, with his fastball averaging 98 mph and limiting hitters to a .118 average. Commanding his changeup and curveball will help his low-spin fastball continue to play up in the bullpen. His arm tired at the end of 2019 after throwing 82 innings across three levels, more innings then he combined to throw from 2015-2018. A healthy Hunter Harvey has all the makings of a reliable closer out of the bullpen and an unbelievable success story.

11) LHP Keegan Akin – 24 years old/ 2nd round, 2016/ Western Michigan

The king of strikeouts in the International League last season, Akin’s issue has never been missing bats, but limiting walks has been. Armed with a fastball (90-93 mph), slider, and changeup, Akin was forced to use his secondary pitches more in 2019 which resulted in more strikeouts (26%) but also a career-high walk rate (12%). Akin hasn’t had a walk rate lower than 10% in any of his three full seasons in the professional ranks, however, his high swing and miss rates and career .233 average against have helped him succeed. Akin’s ceiling is still that of backend starter, but if his velocity can tick up out of the bullpen and feel for his secondary pitches improves, he could be a reliable long-relief arm out of the pen if his rotation experience doesn’t pan out.

10) LHP Zac Lowther – 23 years old/ Competitive Balance B, 2017/ Xavier

While guys like Akin and Zimmermann are seen as MLB ready and arms like Michael Baumann and Dean Kremer took big steps forward in 2019, Lowther has quietly continued to put together solid campaigns year after year since joining the Orioles system. Expect more people to be talking about him in 2020. His fastball doesn’t have the high velo numbers, but he can mix speeds with it and put it where he wants. A bit of funk in his delivery and good movement on his fastball make it difficult for hitters to square him up. He also mixes in a major league curveball and an impressive changeup. Across four levels in the minors, Lowther has compiled 380 strikeouts in 326 innings and a career 2.26 ERA and .194 average against. While he will get the opportunity to start with the Orioles, his success against both LHH and RHH won’t limit him out of the bullpen where he could have a long, successful big league career.

9) RHP Michael Baumann – 24 years old/ 3rd round, 2017/ Jacksonville

No one on this list increased their stock more last season than Michael Baumann. Entering 2019, Baumann was seen more as a relief prospect and a risky one at that. Fast forward one year and Baumann is a prime example of what the Orioles new development program can do for a pitcher. With a four-pitch mix that includes a four-seam fastball that sits 93-95, and can continue to hit the upper-90s very late into outings, Baumann is a legitimate starting pitching prospect for the Orioles.. If he continues to trend up, Baumann is a mid/back-rotation arm in the major leagues. His floor is that of a power reliever with a big league quality slider/curveball. In Frederick, Baumann posted a 3.83 ERA, a 34% K rate, 10.7% walk rate, and a .200 average against. After moving up to Bowie, Baumann recorded a 2.31 ERA, a 24% K rate, 7.8% walk rate, and a .183 average against.

8) RHP Dean Kremer – 24 years old/ 14th round, 2016 (Dodgers)/ UNLV

A big season in Double-A (9-4, 2.98 ERA) and a solid showing in the Arizona Fall League has Kremer trending in the right direction heading into 2020. He saw plenty of action this spring, giving fans a small glimpse into why so many are high on Kremer to crack the Orioles rotation this season. His fastball, curveball, slider combination, with a developing changeup, have missed plenty of bats in the minor leagues, but can he keep missing bats in Triple-A and keep hitters off balance? He logged 19 innings with the Tides last season and while he was hit hard and often, he recorded a 21/4 K/BB ratio. If the changeup comes along and his fastball can miss big league bats, he’s a solid mid-rotation arm.

7) SS Gunnar Henderson – 18 years old/ 2nd round, 2019/ Morgan Academy (AL)

Like some of the other younger names on this list, we’re relying more on reputable reports of Henderson versus live looks as the high school product played in just 29 games last season, all in the Gulf Coast League. Much of the discussion around Henderson revolves around whether or not he continues to play shortstop or move over to third as he fills out his 6’3” and 195 pound frame. Either way, the Orioles have a lack of depth at both positions down on the farm system and if his hit and power tools develop, he profiles as an everyday starter on the left side of the infield. He has an opportunity to make a huge jump in 2020 and make some big noise with his bat in his first full season.

6) OF Austin Hays – 24 years old/ 3rd round, 2016/ Jacksonville

After a scorching hot September campaign, Hays just barely qualifies as a prospect heading into 2020 and will finally graduate this season. None of his impressive five tools have diminished over the last few seasons, but constant injuries and missed time have held Hays from reaching his potential, an above-average everyday center fielder. Whenever the 2020 season begins, Hays will find his name on the Opening Day lineup card as the starting center fielder and possibly at the top of the lineup. His aggressive approach at the plate hurts his overall offensive profile, but if he can come close to his 9.3% walk rate and 17.3% strikeout rate and improve his numbers against secondary pitches (.222 avg vs breaking balls, .100 avg vs offspeed pitches), we will finally get the Austin Hays we have been waiting for.

5) OF Yusniel Diaz– 23 years old/ International FA, 2015 (Dodgers)/ Cuba

Expectations of Diaz were high after being the centerpiece of the 2018 Manny Machado deal with Los Angeles, unfortunately, injuries have prevented Diaz to really take off with the Orioles, other than a hot spring training in 2019 and the occasional healthy month of robust numbers in Double-A. Much like Austin Hays, don’t write off Diaz just yet as the potential to be an everyday starting outfielder is still very much a possibility. Despite the injuries, Diaz slashed .262/.335/.472 with 11 home runs, a .210 ISO, and a 10% walk rate in 76 games (135 wRC+). Those are the types of numbers Diaz are capable of putting together across a full season (20+ HR potential). Combine that with his plus-arm in right field and the Orioles still have themselves an exciting outfielder.

4) OF/1B Ryan Mountcastle – 23 years old/ 1st round, 2015/ Hagerty HS (FL)

The discussions about Mountcastle’s defense are exhausting, but there’s no denying his beautiful swing from the right side of the plate and explosive hands through the zone. Mountcastle has been much younger than his competition at every level he’s played at, yet has consistently put up well above-average numbers, including a .312 average, 25 home runs, and a 117 wRC+ en route to International League MVP honors in 2019. His aggressive nature at the plate leads to low walk rates, but the power and ability to use the entire field are there. If he can eventually increase his walk numbers and on-base abilities, Mountcastle is a smart baseball player who is better defensively at LF and 1B than what the narrative leads you to believe.

3) LHP DL Hall – 21 years old/ 1st round, 2017/ Valdosta HS (GA)

To describe DL Hall in one quick sentence- Electric stuff and one of the top left-handed pitching prospects in all of minor league baseball. Hall brings a four-pitch mix to the mound, including a fastball that can hold at 96 mph deep into outings, and a major league mix consisting of a changeup, slider, and curveball. Hall showed off his deep repertoire in High-A last season, striking out more than 33% of hitters and limiting opponents to a .185 average and three home runs in 80 innings. His 15.6% walk rate was a major issue last season and his command will be under a microscope in 2020, but if he can limit the walks, Hall’s ceiling is that of a top of the rotation arm. Not many MLB left-handed pitchers can hold 96 mph into the sixth inning of a game.

2) RHP Grayson Rodriguez – 20 years old/ 1st round, 2018/ Central Heights HS (TX)

Not only do the Orioles have one pitching prospect with real potential to be a top of the rotation arm, but they have two in Hall and Grayson Rodriguez. At 6’5” and 220 pounds, Rodriguez is a powerful righty with four plus pitches, including a fastball that saw velocity numbers increase throughout the season. When watching Rodriguez live in Delmarva last season, you wouldn’t believe he was 19 years old if you didn’t already know. He finished his first full season with a 10-4 record, a 2.68 ERA, a 34% strikeout rate, a .170 average against, and only four home runs allowed in 94 innings. The Orioles limited his innings last season and if there’s a 2020 season, don’t expect the kid gloves to come off just yet. Rodriguez is one of the more elite pitching prospects in all of baseball and with a new player development system guiding the way in Baltimore, there is a major reason for optimism as Rodriguez moves up the ladder.

1) C Adley Rutschman – 22 years old/ 1st round, 2019/ Oregon State

Nothing new to add here that hasn’t already been discussed over and over again since the Baltimore Orioles drafted Rutschman with the top overall pick in the 2019 draft. There aren’t a lot of questions surrounding his bat except for wondering how he will handle more advanced pitching in the upper minor leagues. With plus-tools across the board (minus his speed on the basepaths), the switch-hitting catcher shouldn’t face many struggles. While at Oregon State, Rutschman slashed .352/.473/.559 with 28 home runs and more walks (156) than strikeouts (117). Defensively, Rutschman gunned down 7 of 11 base stealers in his first taste of pro baseball. If the Orioles pair him with another advanced college bat in this year’s draft, a fun major league lineup isn’t too far away.