Over the past five seasons (2012-2016) the Baltimore Orioles have won more games than any other American League team, and reached the post-season three times.

Weeks away from the start of Spring Training, we have a good sense of what the 2017 O’s roster will look like. For whatever reasons, when the projections start to come in, a likely common thread will be that Baltimore is again underrated.

It’s somewhat difficult to understand why so many experts continue to be confounded by the Birds. Half-a-decade of surprise? Maybe it’s time for some to introspectively look at the way they evaluate teams.

Each Spring we read prognosticators state that regression is around the corner. Each Summer we see articles stating the O’s are exceeding expectations.

Must we really do this dance again here in ’17?

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

What have the O’s consistently done well over the past five seasons?

They’ve hit for power. They’ve had strong bullpens. They’ve typically had quality defenses (according to metrics like UZR/150, DRS, and Defensive Efficiency). 

Where have the O’s consistently struggled over the past five seasons?

Regularly the rotation has been middling at-best. They’ve struggled with getting runners on-base.

What outliers have we seen during this period? In 2012 the O’s had an unsustainable record in 1 run games. In the 2nd half of ’14, the rotation was excellent. In ’16, the OF defense was below average.

Maybe there will be another outlier in ’17.  For the most part I think we can look at the roster, and have a good sense of what the O’s are going to be.

Call me crazy, but I think we’re going to see a team with plus power, a plus bullpen, and at-least a quality infield defense. There is reason to think the rotation can be improved over ’16, and little reason to think it will be any worse. From history alone, in-addition to the most likely outcomes for the O’s starters in ’17 – an average at-best rotation this coming year is a reasonable bet. There is no reason to believe this O’s lineup is going to wake-up and choose to be selective. Their on-base %’s, will again be largely batting average reliant.

I see an 85 win team. Good enough to play-up and win the 90-92 games likely necessary to reach the post-season for a 4th time in 6 years. Enough limitations to finish just under .500 if the wheels come off. Playing-up a more likely possibility in my opinion  vs. things falling apart.

You disagree? Tell me why 2017 is going to be drastically different for the Orioles vs. 2012-16.

Annually we see some provide team predictions by totaling individual projections.
That’s quick and dirty, and inherently limiting.

Baseball Prospectus does that with their PECOTA projections. A seemingly easy adjustment would be for BP to use PECOTA to compile the individual forecasts, have that as part of the evaluation, and then have BP’s staff have their own anecdotal observed knowledge / scouting of the overall roster added to the model, at-least as a percentage thereof.

Let’s not just pick on BP though. The last two years, we (Baltimore Sports and Life) have polled numerous writers and analysts across the game about the O’s. In those polls, many experts have dramatically under estimated the Orioles.

I can only guess that the things the O’s have consistently been good at – power, defense, bullpen – are for some reason underappreciated by some.

It’s just lazy analysis to say relievers are volatile. Great, that’s true on the whole. As one would suspect though, that volatility is reduced when you have elite options. If you are looking at reasons why the O’s will be worse in ’17 than they were in ’16, and you point to Britton – maybe writing about baseball is not for you. Yes, Britton is more likely to allow something more like the 16 earned runs he allowed in ’15, vs. the 7 he allowed in ’16; but his peripheral numbers the last two years were largely the same.

Admittedly, I’m cherry-picking with Britton and his established greatness. So, take a look at O’Day. Review what he’s done every healthy year of his career. Tell me why Brach, and Givens fall flat this year.

Machado and Hardy are easily as good or better than any other 3rd base / SS combo defensively in the game. Schoop has an outstanding arm, and is excellent around the bag. His range is not great, but it’s livable. Davis at 1st, is not quite as good as the accolades he has received from Showatler, but he’s plenty solid. At the minimum, the O’s will again have a quality infield defense.

There isn’t any question about the O’s power, right?

With these basic starting constants, it’s shouldn’t be too much to ask for the baseball writing universe to go into ’17 expecting the O’s to again be ‘good.’ 

What I’ve said above makes clear what I think the ’17 O’s will look like. Basically more of the same. A good team which will again have the chance to compete, and might ultimately be constrained from reaching their goals due to the limitations which continue to exist.

I’m sure I’ll be bewildered by those Writers and Analysts elsewhere who express bewilderment of their own on what the O’s have accomplished this past half-decade, and believe this is the year significant regression roster wise takes place.

What I would like to see from the National (and local) Media is further commentary on what the O’s are doing overall as an organization. Not the prospects of the O’s again being competitive in ’17, but questions which ask what are the O’s doing to to build further lasting success? Obviously decisions are needed with Machado and Britton.  You can sign both, and build a team around them which continues to contend. You can trade both, and obtain the cheap long-term team-controlled assets which would also allow regular contention to be extended.

Some people look at COTS, and who the O’s have under contract in forthcoming years and see the situation past ’17 (and particularly ’18) as dire. I get the apprehension, but I’m not overly scared by the general lack of numbers. If you have a +/- $150M payroll, you will have the ability to fill out the roster. The primary point is that the O’s have to develop more talent internally that they can use to plug-and-play. Contributing players at minimal cost, which can be augmented via Free Agency.

Whatever strategy the O’s have past this year alludes me currently.

What the O’s figure to be in ’17 is clear, and better than the majority of predictions / projections I anticipate seeing leading up to Opening Day. The 2017 Baltimore Orioles will again be good. For whatever reason, the O’s figure to exceed the minimal expectations which will be placed on them by others. The last five years shows this.

Alas all of the success of the previous five years has not added a 4th World Championship to the organization’s mantel. You can like the guys which exist, believe they are better than advertised to be by many; believe they are good enough to contend again – and still question their ability to win it all.

It’s on Duquette and company to improve the O’s chances at winning it all now if that is the sole current goal of the organization. It’s also on Duquette and company to best position the O’s going forward past ’17.

It’s on everyone else (fans, writers, analysts) to realize what has been achieved by the O’s the past five years has not been smoke and mirrors. It hasn’t truly been surprising. The only expectations the O’s have exceeded are from those who have failed to learn from prior results and continued to set the bar too low.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

X