The franchise has become the model of Major League Baseball. While the Oakland A’s three year run has received its fair share of deserved attention, it has been the Tampa Bay Rays who have been the most successful small market team in the sport. Since the start of the 2008 season, the first season that they dropped “the devil” from their name, the Rays have won 90 games in five of six seasons. That other season, an 84 win season, was after their World Series appearance of 2008. That success has come despite never having a payroll over $72 million. It comes during years when the Rays paid $42 million for its roster. It’s come despite a constant free agent exodus. No matter the payroll, the loss of free agents, or an ever changing roster, the Tampa Bay Rays have been Major League Baseball’s most well run franchise.

To reiterate, the Rays have averaged 92 wins while paying out an average of $57 million in team payroll during that span. But, wins per dollar really doesn’t matter all that much. And, that entire introduction has become a cliched way of looking at the Rays. Instead, it is time to start looking at the Rays for what the organization has become: an organization that wins every year.

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The Rays have set a precedent that they will compete every season, despite deficiencies and despite a division that houses two of the biggest spenders in the sport. 2014 is setting up to be a typical year in the American League East. The Yankees spent a boatload of money. The Red Sox appear to be loaded. The Orioles made a late winter splurge; even the Blue Jays have a roster that could lead the league in home runs. The Rays? Despite another quiet offseason, they enter 2014 with their most talented roster since 2010. And, despite the tough division, they enter the season as the favorite to claim their first division title since 2010 and to make their fifth playoff appearance in the past seven seasons.

The Good

The Rotation

From starter one through five, it is very difficult to pick a rotation better than the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite all the rumors, David Price will be in Tampa for the season and will top a rotation that includes 25 year old Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, and most likely 24 year old Jake Odorizzi.  Even with Jeremy Hellickson to start the season on the disabled list, the Rays will send out a quality starter each night. Outdated metrics will say that David Price had a poor 2013, but the 28 year old southpaw posted a 4.4 WAR season during which he pitched 186 innings and compiled a 3.33 ERA (3.03 FIP). His 20.4 percent strikeout rate was in line with his career norm, while his 3.8 percent walk rate was the best of his career. Price is backed by fellow southpaw Matt Moore, who had the breakout season many predicted. Moore missed some time, but still made 27 starts and completed 150 innings of work. His 3.29 ERA is somewhat mitigated by his 3.95 FIP, but the southpaw did post a 22.3 percent strikeout rate. Control is an issue for the lefty, but Moore still has some ceiling left as he enters his prime years. Even if his growth is stunted, there are few better number two starters in the sport, let alone in the American League East.

Perhaps the most underrated starter is right hander Alex Cobb. The 26 year old missed time after taking a line drive to the head, but his 22 starts were another example of just how deep and talented the Rays organizational pitching is. In 143.1 innings, Cobb posted a 2.76 ERA (3.36 FIP) along with a 23.8 percent strikeout rate and a 7.8 walk rate. Averaging 90 MPH with his fastball, Cobb still generates swings and misses at a 12.5 percent clip with pitches thrown in the strike zone.

The rotation is rounded out with Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi. Archer found success last season during his first tour of duty as a Major Leaguer, posting a 3.22 ERA (4.07 FIP), a 19.2 percent strikeout rate and a 7.2 percent walk rate in 22 starts. Odorizzi was acquired along with Wil Myers in last winter’s James Shields deal. Odorizzi comes to the Majors with a solid Minor League track record that includes a little more than a strikeout per inning and an excellent walk rate.

Those five represent the deepest staff in the division. David Price may not be the best pitcher in the division, but he can matchup with any ace. But, teams have a difficult time matching up with Moore, Cobb, and Archer. Even Odorizzi represents a high end fifth starter. In a division that features home run power, the Rays walk into any series with pitching that can match up with any team.

The Manager

The American League East features some of the best Managers in the game. Buck Showalter, Joe Girardi, and John Farrell have all had success. They’ve all demonstrated the ability to lead a team (an underrated characteristic) and positively impact a game. But, no Manager does it all like the Rays Joe Maddon. Maddon consistently unites a team with deficiencies and gets the most out of role players. A couple of years ago it was Sam Fuld. Last season, it was getting bounce back seasons from James Loney and Yunel Escobar. Maddon is also the type of manager who uses data to his advantage–his use of defensive shifts are the best in the sport– but he also has the human touch as evidenced by his themed road trips. The Rays don’t play in front of sold out crowds and are usually faced with losing star players each winter in the name of a budget. Yet, Maddon’s teams have never finished below .500.

The Defense

There is no doubt that the Rays have a talented rotation. But, that rotation, along with the bullpen, are the beneficiaries of elite level defense. With the exception of David Price, each starter had a FIP higher than his ERA, meaning that the defense helped keep the ERA down. According to DRS, the Rays ranked last in the American League East with 8 runs saved. That points more towards the elite defense played in the AL East rather than the Rays’ deficiencies. According the UZR, the Rays were the second best AL East team, behind the Orioles, with a 37.7 UZR. By defensive WAR standards, the Rays were also second to the Orioles. Rays pitchers posted the third best strikeout percentage in the American League, which takes much of the pressure off of the defense. And, when batters do put the ball in play, the Rays have an elite defense.

The Depth

Most small market clubs struggle with depth. It makes sense, but the Rays have managed to put together a versatile and deep roster for the 2014 season. The relief staff has better depth with the addition of Heath Bell and Grant Balfour. Juan Carlos Oviedo is back from Tommy John Surgery to give the Rays another power arm in the bullpen. The rotation depth has already been discussed, but the Rays also have names such as Alex Colome and Enny Romero ready to start at the Major League level. Offensively, Ryan Hanigan allows Jose Molina to settle into a part time role that will allow him to impact the game as an elite catcher in terms of his framing skills. Logan Forsythe gives the Rays a utility infielder who is capable of posting high on base percentages. With Brandon Guyer fighting for a bench spot with the likes of Wilson Betemit, Jerry Sands, and Jayson Nix, the Rays have their best bench in years. It also helps to have someone like Ben Zobrist able to start at any infield and outfield position. While their offense will always be a bit thin, the Rays have more than enough arms to compensate for poor performances and/or injuries. No other team in the division has that type of depth.

The Questionable

The Power

A full season of Wil Myers will help. Evan Longoria playing 160 games will also help. But, that’s about it in terms of power for the Rays. Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist can contribute to the power game, but the Rays lack power in a division that is full of power. The Yankees reloaded on the home run ball. The Red Sox can hit the homer. The Orioles have the best power in the division, while even the Blue Jays have above average power. They finished 9th in the American League in home runs and slugging percentage, which puts more pressure on the pitching staff. Because the other contenders hit for more power, the Rays will have to rely on their patience (first in walks drawn), gap power (4th in doubles), and their pitching and defense to be consistent on a nightly basis. Unlike the rest of the division, there aren’t nights when the Rays can slug their way back into a game. It simply isn’t in them.

Some Age

It is unusual to say that the Rays have some age on the roster, but Ben Zobrist is heading into his age 33 season and showed slight signs of decline last season, even if his year was still quite productive. Shortstop Yunel Escobar is 31 years old. David DeJesus is 33 years old and expected to play every day. James Loney is entering his age 30 season. By no means are they an old team, but some of their key players are at the tail end of their prime seasons.  While pitching depth isn’t a problem, replacements for offensive injuries will hurt the Rays. Additionally, an older team tends to defend worse. The Rays cannot afford a drop off on defense.

Offensive Cupboard

The Rays way is really about elite pitching and defense combined with just enough offense. With the exception of Longoria and Myers, no offensive player seems capable of producing any better than last season. Perhaps Desmond Jennings in his age 28 season can, but his track record is starting to speak for itself. The Rays are heavily dependent on two players to carry the lineup. The lineup can be navigated, especially in the late innings.

Most Important Player

It is easy to say either Longoria or Myers, but the real key is Ben Zobrist. If Zobrist can regain some of his patience, stay healthy, and continue to hit 35+ doubles, the lineup looks much better. The switch hitting second baseman has to be that third upper echelon member of the lineup. Myers will have moments of struggle, which makes the need for Zobrist to be consistent and avoid a decline even more paramount.

Under the Radar Player

Logan Forsythe is in the right spot with the right Manager. Joe Maddon has a knack for getting the most out of role players. Forsythe has power, has shown he can get on base in the Minor Leagues, and is versatile. It is easy to see a scenario where Forsythe gets 400 at bats and posts a line of .270/.340/.400 with 15 home runs and double digit steals.

Farmhand to Know

Enny Romero is a southpaw that averages about 94 MPH with the fastball. But, control problems take a bit of the shine off. Right hander Alex Colome will make an impact at the Major League level this season, even with last August’s elbow troubles. He showed control problems during his three 2014 Major League starts, but his strikeout ability somewhat tempers that. Whether in the rotation or out of the bullpen, Colome is the pitcher the Rays will likely go to first if it needs to dip into the organizational depth.

Breakout Player

Alex Cobb will contend for the Cy Young Award this season. That seems to qualify as a breakout candidate.

Likely Scenario

The Rays have shown a remarkable ability to win despite glaring deficiencies. One or two seasons can be considered a fluke, but since 2008, the Rays have won despite being imperfect. This season will be no different. The division will be difficult, but the Rays’ pitching depth will be enough to separate them from the rest.

Final Prediction

In a close race, the Rays win the American League East with a record of 95-67.

Gary Armida
Gary Armida

Orioles Analyst

First and foremost, a Father. After that, I am a writer and teacher who not only started my own company and published an i-magazine as well as a newsletter, but have been published by USA Today, Operation Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Digest, Gotham Baseball Magazine, and numerous other publications. As an educator, I have 20 years of classroom experience and am utilizing that experience in my current position as department coordinator. Wrote the book The Teacher And The Admin (https://theteacherandtheadmin.com/the-book/) and operate that website which is dedicated to making education better for kids.

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