O’s Q&A with Gary Armida, The Baseball Report / Baseball Digest

With the hiring of Dan Duquette, and the hot-stove league kicking into high gear, Baltimore Sports and Life has reached out to Gary Armida for his thoughts.

Armida has previously written for Baseball Prospectus, and been the Executive Editor of Full Count Pitch. Currently Armida operates  The Baseball Report, and writes for Baseball Digest.

You can find his work with The Baseball Report at:
http://fcpbaseballreport.com/

& with Baseball Digest at:
http://www.baseballdigest.com/

You can find Armida on Twitter at:
http://twitter.com/#!/GaryArmidaFCP

Baltimore Sports and Life thanks Mr. Armida for taking the time to answer a few questions.

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Dan Duquette  has been named the Orioles GM / Executive VP of Baseball Operations. I get the impression that Duquette has a chip on his shoulder, is hungry, and believes Epstein received too much of the credit he felt he deserved.

I’m thinking that even though the GM search was another PR nightmare for the O’s, that they still came out of this with a quality hire. Tony LaCava was a popular choice among many fans of the Birds for this position. I certainly recognized him to be capable, and would have supported that hire as well. For what ever reason, that hire was not able to be completed. Had LaCava been hired, the Orioles would have announced a 50 year-old first time GM. Instead they have announced the hiring of a 53 year-old, who has sat in the big chair (with success) a couple of times. Whatever went well (or bad) for Duquette with the Expos and Red Sox; Duquette has the advantage of leveraging those prior experiences.

My take is that O’s fans should give Duquette a fair shake and only concern themselves with what happens going forward.

What are your thoughts on Duquette, and how much does his absence from the game concern you?”

Armida: “I think the Orioles lucked out here and made the perfect hire. If you look at Duquette’s track record as a GM, he has excelled in player development, excelled in the trade market, and has shown an ability to make hard decisions with retaining players. He took a beating for not re-signing Mo Vaughn and he proved to be right. The whole Roger Clemens thing about being in the twilight of his career was right given what we know about Clemens now. He’s worked in two tough situations and made his team contenders by developing talent and making good trades.”

The time off is a good question. I don’t think it hurts him. He’s still be involved in scouting and has kept plugged in. He’s a baseball man who is polished, experienced, and has experience in different, difficult markets. He’s exactly who the Orioles need. Peter Angelos isn’t easy to work for. Someone with experience was needed. It worked out well for them, even if it wasn’t their plan.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Duquette takes over a team which has had not had a winning season since 1997. He also takes over a team which has not even won 70+ games since 2006. Yet, it would also be unfair to say he inherits a total reclamation project either. There is enough talent on the Major League roster, that heading into the 2011 season the averaged predicted win total from 19 different analysts (including yourself) was 78. I still think the O’s underachieved this year. While all of the existing core players have plenty of questions, I still believe there is a decent group of players to move forward with.

Duquette made clear in his Press conference Tuesday that he plans to build the organization through Scouting (Amateur and International) and Player Development. If it seemed unlikely to Orioles fans that the O’s would bid on Fielder, or Darvish, etc. this off-season, I think it is fair to say those odds have been reduced further with the hiring of Duquette.

I see the O’s at a fork in the road. I lean towards believing a deeper rebuilding is necessary and should be the path traveled. However, there is a prevailing belief by many that Orioles Manager Buck Showalter wants to augment around the existing core. I can support heading in either direction, but what I want to see is a complete commitment to which ever road the O’s want to take.

What are a couple of things you believe the O’s should be working to accomplish this Winter?”

Armida: “You remembered my Orioles prediction, huh? Yes, I do think the Orioles underachieved and had a lot go wrong last year. The first thing they have to do is figure out if their young pitching is for real. I think each young starter had the worst possible scenario happen. A veteran starter to eat some innings would be ideal, but I’d like to see them roll out Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, and Zach Britton every fifth day. They have to figure out if they can be those anchors or not. If they determine that they can project to be quality Major Leaguers, they build from there.

For the winter, I’d like to see them go after a low risk, high reward player like Grady Sizemore and add to the bullpen a bit. Honestly, they are in a position where they have pieces in place that won’t allow for major changes right now. So, barring a trade, I think they enter the spring with basically the same team.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “During this past 2011 season, Showalter met regularly with Majority Owner Peter Angelos. Showalter has enough influence within the organization, that he was part of the interview committee with the prospective GM candidates. Presumably, Duquette and Showalter are currently on the same page.

However, if it becomes apparent that Duquette, and Showalter have differing philosophies of how the organization should be built (both in the immediate, and long-term) do you agree that Showalter’s opinions should be considered, but that the Manager reports to the GM; and thus the GM should have autonomy to make the moves they desire? If the O’s are going to listen to Showalter first, should he have been the one named the GM?”

Armida: “I do believe in chain of command. The GM has to have the overrule button so to speak. But, a team works better when the manager and GM work together. Showalter has worked well with GM’s in the past. If he was on the committee to hire Duquette, I would believe he’s good right now. Showalter’s opinion should definitely be heard, acknowledged, and worked with. He’s a great baseball man and great baseball men cannot be ignored. I think Duquette is smart enough to know that, know the landscape, and avoid the potential pitfalls, at least early on.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Beyond the Major League team itself, Duquette also inherits a Minor League system with some high top-level talent, and a overall lack of depth. Last Winter, Baseball America and ESPN’s Keith Law both ranked the O’s system in the lower 1/3 of baseball. When we spoke with Baseball America’s Jim Callis last month (https://baltimoresportsandlife.com/?p=3047), Callis did not anticipate the O’s moving into the middle of the 2012 rankings.

Joe Jordan, who had been the Orioles Director of Amateur Scouting, has left the organization to become the Phillies Player Development Director. An immediate question for Duquette will be, who is he going to get to replace Jordan? One name that interests me is Amiel Sawdaye, who is currently Boston’s Director of Amateur Scouting. Sawdaye is not going to leave the Red Sox for a lateral position, but perhaps the Baltimore native would join the O’s if he was named Asst. General Manager? If not Sawdaye, are there other external options you can name that you believe Duquette should consider?”

Armida: “That’s a tough question. There are two that come to mind for me. When looking at people for positions like this, I look to the organizations that develop talent well. Teams like the Rays and Brewers jump to mind. They have a system and it has proven successful. One person who jumps out at me is Jim Rooney of the Milwaukee Brewers. Right now, he is the National Pitching Crosschecker, but given his work under Jack Zduriencik when Zduriencik ran the player development side of the Brewers, he would be an outstanding choice.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “In a Baseball America poll (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/best-tools/2011/2612213.html) of Major League Managers, Adam Jones was ranked as the 2^nd best defensive CF in the American League. On the other-side you have the most advanced defensive metrics which state Jones is a below average CF. I tend to believe that the truth lies between those two extremes. Jones finished ’11 with a Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of .339, and his Isolated Power (ISO) was .185. For the 2^nd consecutive year, he has played in 149+ games. For the 3^rd consecutive year his OPS fell within the range of .767 to .792. He finished with 25 homers, and 26 doubles. Jones is a Free Agent after the 2013 season. By Opening Day 2012, do you think the O’s need to have either extended him or traded him? If you would like to see him extended, what type of contract do you think would be fair?”

Armida: “Jones has tools, but I would wait until at least Spring Training of 2013 before thinking about extending him. I fear he becomes Alex Rios rather than Torii Hunter, which looks to be his ceiling. That type of contract depends on his growth over the next two seasons. I need an OBP better than .325 or .319 out of him. I need his defense to be more consistent, although I agree that defensive metrics are still having a hard time giving an accurate read on players. I’d wait to extend him. Actually, I might be in the minority, but I’d actually hope he gets off to a great start and trade him. He’s a good player, but I don’t think he’s a foundation player.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If the O’s are ever going to be competitive in the near term, their young pitching has to produce. Matusz was extremely strong over his last 10 starts of 2010, and abysmal over his 12 outings in 2011. Like Jones’s defense, I think the truth about Matusz is probably somewhere in the middle, but he absolutely needs to earn his spot next Spring.

In 2011, Arrieta saw improvement in his K/9, Line Drive %, Ground Ball %, and First Strike % numbers. With the removed bone spur not directly at the elbow (and with him having surgery when he did), there seems to be confidence in his ability to have a normal throwing program this Winter. Obviously 21 homers in 119.1 ip is too much, and his fastball command has to increase.

There was been a lot to like about Britton’s rookie season, especially with how he responded to the adversity of July. Overall he finished 11-11, with a 4.61 era. In his 154.1 ip, he allowed 162 hits, 12 homers, 62 bb’s, with 97 k’s. His OPS against was .735, and he had a G/F ratio of 1.24. Like Arrieta, his fastball command needs to improve.

What are your current thoughts on these three?”

Armida: “I still like them all. Like I said earlier, the Orioles have to commit to them and keep running them out there. Matusz had everything go wrong for him—some health and some bad luck as his .382 BABIP would suggest. As long as he is healthy, I see him rebounding. I actually think Arrieta is the best of the three. I love his stuff, but like you said, he has to control it. 4.5 walks per nine innings is unsustainable. If he can cut down the walks, which I believe would cut down on homeruns too as a result of being in the count, he can lead the staff. I love Britton’s tenacity on the mound. His stuff translates into being the most consistent of the three. He was the only one to pitch better than his ERA suggests. His 4.00 FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage) actually shows he was hurt a bit by the Orioles’ defense. My one caution with him is that his strikeouts (5.4 K/9) are dangerously close to being a serious red flag. Pitchers who strike out five or less batters per nine innings don’t project well for the long term. Add in his elevated walk total, and you have some legitimate worries.

All three need a chance to develop. They are doing so in the toughest division in the game which tends to skew results a bit. The Orioles just lack that one 96+ MPH to allow these three to slot in spots 2 through 4.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Wieters finished with 50xbh’s (.450 Slugging) and was lauded as one of the best defensive catchers in the game. If you were starting a team – which catchers do you take before him?”

Armida: “Great question. I’ve never wavered on my support of Wieters’ talent. I think he gets even better this year. When you factor in defense, there aren’t many that I take ahead of him. I’d still take Brian McCann, Yadier Molina, Joe Mauer, and Buster Posey, if he comes back healthy. Wieters is right there in that group.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Prior to any external additions, the O’s likely 2012 roster currently resembles something like:

Guthrie, Britton, Hunter, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Bergesen, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Davis 1^st
Reimold LF
DH
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Backup C, Angle, Adams

The Orioles 2011 payroll was roughly $85M. Those 23 players above are likely due somewhere between $65-$70M.

In 2011, the O’s spent about $10M on Amateur Scouting, and I believe around $1.5M on International Scouting. I think in generalities, you can estimate that the O’s have been willing to spend roughly $100-$105M combined on their Major League roster, Amateur Scouting, Intl. Scouting, Player Development, and Pro Scouting.

With Duquette stating he wants to build the organization, I think you have to expect that the 2012 payroll figures to be in the $85-$90M range, and could possibly be reduced. Considering Tampa Bay just went to the Playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 years with a payroll of just $41M, I feel that nobody should cry if the O’s 2012 payroll is reduced and reallocated to the other facets of Baseball Operations.

Beginning with the starting point of the existing roster, and an understanding of the limitations which will mark the O’s search; where and how can Baltimore improve through external additions? Do you agree that if the O’s are to have tangible improvement, it will come from within with currently existing parts?”

Armida: “Barring a big trade, I do think they have to improve from within. There just isn’t much depth in the free agent market that can actually help them. I’m not sure I just hand Chris Davis a job. If they could find a free agent corner type player, I’d bring him in. Or, even a platoon partner for Davis would work. The problem is that there aren’t many who fit that profile. Maybe Jonny Gomes or Wilson Betemit? They can add on the cheap though. If the Orioles do want to go outside for help, or at least guaranteed help, they need to explore the trade market or spend big money. Like you said, I don’t think the latter will happen.”

Baltimore Sports and Life: “Let’s say the O’s signed the following players for the following contracts:

Sizemore: 1yrs $9M
Buehrle: 4yrs $50M
Barajas: 1yr $2.5M (Note from BSL, Barajas signed with Pittsburgh 11/10)
DeJesus: 1yr $5M

That would equal a $29M investment for ’12. Adding that to the $65-$70M payroll which currently exists, and we are talking about a payroll in the $94-$99M range. That would be elevated over last year, but probably palatable to the O’s.

This would leave the O’s looking like:

Buehrle, Guthrie, Britton, Arrieta, Matusz
Johnson, Gregg, Strop, Tillman, Simon, Hunter, Patton

Hardy SS
Markakis RF
Jones CF
Reynolds 3^rd
Wieters C
Sizemore DH
Davis 1^st
DeJesus LF
Andino 2^nd

Roberts, Barajas, Reimold, Adams

While I think those moves would improve the O’s, Baltimore would still figure to reside in the bottom of the American League East (unless Britton, Arrieta, and Matusz drastically raised their games). If they are unlikely to move out of the cellar with such moves, do you think Baltimore would be better off saving their money?”

Armida: “I don’t think Buehrle is an option for them. Your other suggestions might be. There are two schools of thought on this. One is that you sign these guys, hope they do well, and then trade them at the mid point. The risk is that you could get stuck with a dead contract. I love Grady Sizemore, but he’s a tough sign for a team in need of guaranteed production. Or, you simply just save the money and pour it into player development. If I’m the Orioles, I pick and choose a couple of hitters, but I don’t pay big money, even if I could get a prospect back. Most likely, they won’t get a return on their investment. If the Orioles want to win, they have to commit to player development and play the draft pick game like Alex Anthopoulos has in Toronto, getting compensation picks, if the new CBA will still allow for that. I’d go for the full-blown rebuild, sell the fan base on a legitimate plan, and show that improvement is coming. If the pitchers rebound and develop quickly, they’ll have the resources to add Major League-ready talent when needed.”