Day 1 of the MLB Draft came and went, and Orioles fans seemed to have more questions than answers. Heston Kjerstad went at #2 in a move that clearly seemed to set up overslot deals later on. At #30, the team turned to Jordan Westburg, a player ranked right in the 30-35 range by most outlets. With that in mind, there seemed to be money to spend with their four Day 2 picks. Let’s look at those picks. As a reminder, many of these picks are being partially evaluated through my DRAFT (Data-Reasoned Amateur Future Talent) Model. The scores have been updated to include Baseball America’s Top 500 players and can be seen here.

Pick 39: Hudson Haskin, CF

As a draft-eligible sophomore, Haskin was going to require some extra incentive to leave Tulane. However, being ranked 211th by Baseball America (79th by MLB.com), drafting him 39th overall would probably provide enough money at slot to get him away from campus.

Haskin’s swing isn’t pretty, but it does work. He slashed .362/.457/.612 over 329 PAs at Tulane. The .250 ISO is impressive, and despite the odd swing mechanics, he only strikes out at an 11.9% rate. This is due to his advanced hand-eye coordination and bat control. Further, he performed with the wood bat last summer, putting up impressive numbers in the New England Collegiate Baseball League. He profiles as a center fielder with very good defense, and has major speed.

The DRAFT model wasn’t so kind. Driven down by his 211th rank at Baseball America, Haskin’s score was 0.71, 359th overall. Now, draft boards can deviate wildly as you move down the board. If you believe the MLB.com assessment of 79th overall, Haskin’s score jumps up to 2.75, 96th overall. The positional model probably undersells his chances to stick in center field (Currently only 35%), and if that’s upped to about 60%, his score goes up even further to around 5.0, which would slot him in around 60th.

There are a lot of questions for Haskin, but if you squint there’s a high-upside player there. He’ll cost money to sign away from Tulane and he definitely has potential to be a contributor, but his swing has to continue to work in pro ball.

Pick 74: Anthony Servideo, SS

Servideo is another guy who doesn’t profile as an overslot. Ranked 97th by Baseball America, he took off in the short season. He slashed .390/.575/.695 in 87 PAs, and walked 27.6% of the time. He’s a plus shortstop, plus runner, and has additionally played at third base and in the outfield. It’s not all good news, as he is a bit undersized at 5’10”-170 and struggled mightily on the Cape last year, slashing .149/.277/.228 with the wood bat.

Servideo’s DRAFT score was 2.61, 102nd overall. His adjusted walks are great—0.071 above expected—but he strikes out a bit and his ISO is a little lower than expected. However, the positional model undersells his shortstop potential. Adjusting that would raise his score to the 4.6 range, around 70th overall. Further, had he a full season with his improved offensive profile continuing, his score easily could’ve reached the top 50 range through an improved Baseball America ranking and improved adjusted stats.

Servideo has potential, and plays a premium position well. If the improvements to the power are real, he could surpass the two players drafted ahead of him by the Orioles.

Pick 103: Coby Mayo, 3B

Here’s your overslot. Mayo was ranked 79th overall by Baseball America, and the Florida commit was expected to require a decent payday to get him away from campus. He’s a big guy at 6’5″-215, with big raw power to match. There are questions about his hit tool. He’s messed with his swing over the past year and it still isn’t what you’d call smooth.

The model loves big high school players with power potential, and Mayo is no exception. His DRAFT score of 6.43 ranks 49th overall. If there were more conviction from the scouting community about his hit tool–and thus raising his ranking—he could’ve easily been a top-30 guy. With some player development work on the swing, it’s a definite possibility.

Pick 133: Carter Baumler, RHP

Ranked 147th overall by Baseball America, Baumler will be an interesting sign. He’s committed to TCU and didn’t get much work this Spring before the season was shut down. His fastball sits in the low 90s, but his slim frame—6’2″-195—implies that he could add strength and a few MPH to the pitch. The breaking ball works, but the changeup is currently more advanced.

Baumler’s DRAFT score was 1.99, 146th overall. As a high school pitcher, his score is a bit lower than it could be, reflecting the uncertainty of high school pitchers in general. The clean mechanics imply a solid chance of starting, and if that predicted starting percentage is raised to 70% to reflect this his score becomes 2.62, 102nd overall. Baumler has the potential to be a steal if the physicality and thus fastball improves, especially since he seems to have a solid chance at starting.

The Draft As a Whole

On the surface, it’s easy to be disappointed by the draft haul. Digging a little deeper, there is a method that appears. The Orioles focused on position players with loud tools—particularly power—especially when those tools exist at premium positions. They are trusting their player development team to iron out some of the downsides of these hitters—specifically odd tics in swings to raise their hit tools to allow players to access their raw power—while counting on physical development in Baumler and an improved breaking pitch. In doing so, it’s reasonable to think that the front office is working with data that isn’t readily available to the public, particularly exit velocities. Given that information and the ability to include it in my model, I can’t say that I’d be guaranteed to make a different decision.

Are there players I would have preferred? Absolutely. I think much of what the team accomplished in the later rounds could have been done taking a player other than Kjerstad. However, I do tend to think that their overslot targets at #30—Nick Bitsko and Jordan Walker come to mind—were taken by earlier teams, hence the choice of Westburg. I would have loved to see the team take a shot at incredibly deep college pitching class, particularly high upside guys like Cole Wilcox, Slade Cecconi, or JT Ginn. But I can respect a front office that likes loud tools and trusts its player development system. It’s now up to that system, which will determine whether the Orioles will continue to be in this position for the foreseeable future or if the team has a chance of reaching the playoffs.

Stephen Loftus
Stephen Loftus

Orioles Analyst

Dr. Stephen Loftus received his Ph.D. in Statistics from Virginia Tech in 2015 and is an Assistant Professor of Mathematical Sciences at Randolph-Macon College. Prior to that, he worked as an Analyst in Baseball Research and Development for the Tampa Bay Rays, focusing on the Amateur Draft. He formerly wrote at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score. As a lifelong fan of the Orioles, he fondly remembers the playoff teams of 1996-97 and prefers to forget constantly impending doom of Jorge Julio, Albert Belle’s contract, and most years between 1998 and 2011.

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