The Baltimore Orioles beat Tampa Bay Rays 6-5 last night in extra innings, improving to 8-12 for the year.

So far in this 2019 season, I’ve found the O’s to be entertaining. They aren’t particularly good, but for the most part their games have been competitive, and have been fun to watch.

Part of that stems from the low expectations, but part of it is the actual play.
If you are just following the box scores at this point, I think you have been missing out if you are an actual baseball fan.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Everything we watch this year has to be framed through the context of, “Can this player possibly be part of the next quality Orioles team? Or, can this player possibly be moved elsewhere, bringing back value (and team control) to the O’s?”

One of the issues we talked about before the season was the lack of impact talent directly on the verge, and that remains a concern. The guys that have some impact potential aren’t here yet, and even their overall ceilings are questionable. However, part of the reason why I’m pleased so far, is that I think we have seen decent signs from potential secondary type guys. Guys that aren’t going to dramatically move the needle for you, but could be viable contributors of a winning team.

John Means turns 26 in a couple of days. His Minor League numbers certainly don’t overwhelm you. But watching him has been fun. His changeup has been exceptional, and he was pouring in fastballs last night at 94. (Average FB velocity is 92.2.) Going to need a larger sample to believe in him as a potential rotation piece, but he can definitely help a roster. The O’s are talking about utilizing him as a 6th starter, and they’ve made clear he will get other starting opportunities this year. I think I like him in an extra-starter / swing man capacity.

David Hess has allowed a ridiculous 7 homers in 21.1 innings, so I won’t fault you at all if you are lukewarm at best about him. I like him though. I’ll like him more when he’s not starting (aside from potential ‘openers’), and he’s being used out of the pen where he belongs. The slider is nice, and he’s got better velocity than you’d think. Not as much movement as you’d like though.

Jimmy Yacabonis has 6 walks, and just 5 k’s in his 12.1 innings of work. If you are just watching the box score, that’s not going to excite you. That said, I like what we’ve seen from his 7 outings so far. He’s got strong velocity, and his ball moves. The sample is too low to have any strong opinions, but something to watch is that he’s been strong vs. lefties so far.

That’s three guys who in my opinion look well poised to help a winning team in middle / long relief.
You might be saying, “Who cares?”, but that does have value. You control those guys for years at minimal cost. If they can be long-term contributors making nothing, that’s a win.

Through 76 ab’s, Dwight Smith Jr. has a .276 / .317 / .474 slash line.  He sprays line drives. He’s willing to take a walk. By the eye test, and by the early metrics; he’s playing a quality LF.  Is he a legitimate starting corner OF? He is at this pace. Let’s see what he looks like after the league has made some adjustments. At the minimum, he’s showing you enough to feel really good about him going forward as a 4th OF.

The metrics don’t like Richie Martin so far at SS, which surprises me. By the eye, I think he’s been above average. Not the elite of the elite, but solidly above average. He makes the routine plays, he has good range, and the arm is strong. Offensively he’s been overwhelmed so far (18 k’s in 46 ab’s), but he did enough at the AA level to believe there is some promise there as well.  Seems to me he’s changed his stance a bit in the last few days, and approach wise looks to be shorter to the ball and looking for right. We will see if he starts hitting a bit more. Right now, I’m enjoying watching him play a very competent SS.

Renato Nunez shows good offensive potential. Check the exit velocity on his hits. When he squares, he hits balls hard. He’s just 25, and  he’s under contract through 2023. He could be a helpful piece for sometime.

It’s way too early to project Smith, Martin, or Nunez as long-term pieces. Each are showing the ability to help a roster in some capacity though. Especially at a minimal cost.

Some Other Thoughts: 

I’m going to restate what I said two weeks ago about Villar. He’s definitely a legitimate Major Leaguer. If the O’s want to move him this July, I’m sure they’ll find a suitor. He turns 28 May 2nd. He’s arbitration eligible next year, and a Free Agent before ’21.  I look at him like Mancini.  You could move him, and bring back a piece or two under longer-term team control. Or you could keep him, and he could be a solid piece of the puzzle. If he’d consider tacking on a year or two to his contract, I think that could work for all sides.

Mancini is posting MVP level numbers right now. We shouldn’t expect that from him. But you should be able to expect him to be a consistently reliable regular. Maybe even multiple AS appearances. He’s just doing everything you possibly ask of him at this point.

I’m not sure what the O’s have in Hanser Alberto or RIo Ruiz, but I’m enjoying watching both.

The early metrics hate Alberto at 3rd, but he made a couple of great plays there recently. His MiL numbers say he can hit. He’s got some position versatility. I could see him getting squeezed off the roster at some point if the O’s are in need of another arm, but I hope that doesn’t happen. He might be a nice UTI option for some time.

Ruiz is a strong defensive 3rd baseman. The overall offensive ceiling seems a bit light, but he has quality ab’s. The approach seems sound. He’s having a tough time vs. lefties. I’d like to see the average pick up.

After 20 games, Chris Davis has a higher BAA than Cedric Mullins.  After being sick and missing all of the first two games in Tampa, Davis had a much needed single in extra innings last night. Don’t know what to say about Chris, other than I felt great for him on a human level getting his first knocks in Boston. Hopefully he can build on that. Him giving the O’s some production would certainly make the lineup stronger.

Mullins has been ice cold so far in his 56 ab’s. He’s a better player than this, and I believe he’ll produce at some point. Unfortunately though, he’s burying himself a bit number wise. Also, while I think he’s better than he has shown, there were real questions entering the year of what his ceiling is? Is he a regular? Is he a reserve? He isn’t giving fans or Management reason so far to believe he is a piece you build around. I still think without anyone pushing for his spot, you continue to put him in the lineup and give him a real extended run.  He did make a terrific grab last night against the Rays, that was good to see.

Castro is sporting a not-so-sexy 9.31 era. He’s allowed 10 er in his 9.2 innings of work. My take is that the arm talent is real, and he’s just 24.  I don’t want to get rid of him yet. I want to see if this new Coaching staff can tap into what he does bring to the table. That said, you can try and limit the higher leverage situations for him right now. Hyde should hide him some, until his play warrants being used in tougher capacities.

No saves yet for Mychal Givens. The stuff is electric, but not all guys are built to close. That homer he allowed last night was crushed. Hyde has been trying to get extra outs from him, and use him in the most crucial situations. Of his 7 outings, he’s been asked to get more than 3 outs 5 times. If the O’s want to build his trade value, they might want to look at that. Not with the idea of an artificial boost of trade value through the accumulation of saves, but with the idea that his overall effectiveness might increase when asked to get 3 outs or less.

Bundy had better velocity (92-93) in Tampa Bay vs. what we’ve seen previously this year. Good movement too. His change and breaking ball are excellent. Like Hess, he’s again allowing a ridiculous amount of homers (7 in 17.1 innings pitched). His numbers the first time through the lineup are really strong. If he can’t produce multiple times through, maybe you should just capitalize on the strong 3 inning outs he can provide. Right now, you can’t be expecting to trade him for anything. So what matters is getting value out of him yourself.

Straily made some good strides in his 2nd start. Which should be expected, as he gets back into a routine. He’s got a chance to help bring some stability to the rotation.

Cashner has 12 walks, and 15 k’s in his 25.1 innings. He’s made 170 ML starts at this point, and everyone has a pretty good handle on what the 32 year old starter is. Still, I think the new staff has made some adjustments with him (using the fastball less), and he’s looked better. He’s made 5 starts, and in 4 of them he has given the O’s a chance to win.

Outside of the walk he allowed last night, I’ve liked what we’ve seen from Phillips. Fry has also been stout. Two more guys who are potential usable arms for some time.

I’m pleased to see Scott back with the roster. His stuff is electric. Obviously the issue with him remains control.

Four hits for Rickard last night, and an underrated play in RF.  Again, he gets exposed a bit as a regular, but he’s a fine reserve OF. He’s also got 6XBH’s in his 52 ab’s.

One thing you are definitely missing if you aren’t watching the O’s daily is the play of Jesus Sucre, and Pedro Severino behind the plate. I know these two aren’t long-term answers, and both have some real limitations; but they really are fun to watch. They call good games, take control of situations. Frame well, encourage their pitchers, and have strong arms. And at the plate, neither is going to hit much, but for guys hitting .213 and .208; I think they’ve had a surprising amount of quality ab’s.

 

Tonight’s game looks iffy weather wise, maybe leading to a double-header tomorrow. Either way, Cobb is off the IL, and will be making just his 2nd start. He needs to stay healthy, and lead this staff.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

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