Before the season, I wrote that the Pac 12 was a top heavy conference that had some very good NBA talent. So far, that is how the league has played out. I spoke about UCLA and how I felt they were better than Arizona but I did feel Oregon would win the conference. Right now, you would have to give UCLA the advantage there. You can make the argument that UCLA is the best team in the country. Kenpom doesn’t agree with that though. They are ranked 12th because they are 94th in defense. They have the best offense though and if they play better defense as the season goes on, they could be the best team. UCLA has 6 players that are averaging in double figures. Lonzo Ball is setting freshman assist records, TJ Leaf is already a top inside player and Alford is a hell of a shooter. They also make their free throws.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Oregon is an interesting team. They were missing Dillon Brooks earlier in the year and didn’t look like the team many thought they were. They have been playing better and are starting to move up the rankings. They are currently just outside of the top 10. The problem with Oregon is that Brooks is hurt again. He got hurt on Thursday. He is currently in a walking boot. How long will he be out? That will be a big key with how far you take this team.

Arizona is also playing better. They are currently the second best team in the conference according to Kenpom, where they are ranked 17th. Alonzo Trier is coming back and may play today, in a matchup vs UCLA. Arizona was my pick to finish third in the conference and depending on the Brooks injury, I think they could get the second spot. This is a very talented team that could be dangerous in the tourney.

The problem with the Pac 12 is the rest of the conference. Outside of these 3 teams, the next team ranked in Kenpom is 41st. Cal and USC are also in the top 60. USC started the season well and were one of the final undefeated teams but they have fell back since conference play started.

Markelle Fultz came into the season as the highest ceiling player in the conference. He wasn’t the Conference POY favorite though. That belonged to Brooks. But with Brooks’ injuries and the stellar play of Fultz (he leads the conference in scoring), the DeMatha product might get the hardware. His biggest obstacle is that his team isn’t good at all, so they could give the award to Lonzo Ball instead.

I said preseason that the conference had a chance to get 6 teams in. Colorado, an 8th seed last year who returned a lot of their top scorers from last year has been terrible. They are 0-6 in league play and are pretty much done. Utah, Cal and USC still have a chance to make the tourney. Right now, they will definitely get 3 in and my guess is 1 or 2 more will get in as well. I don’t think I buy them getting 6 teams in unless all 3 of Cal, Utah and USC do some damage against the big 3 teams the rest of the year.

Switching gears to the Big Ten, this conference has struggled some this year. Preseason favorites Indiana and Mich St have looked poor. OSU, a team I thought could be a top 6 team in the conference has struggled and Michigan isn’t good. Nebraska and Penn St have a few good wins and have played some good teams tough but they have poor overall records. Right now, Northwestern is the surprise of the league IMO, They are 15-4 and 4-2 in conference play. NU has never made the NCAA tournament but this year they have a good chance. They are currently 31st in Kenpom. The issue with them is that they don’t have any good wins. The best teams they have played this year are Butler, Notre Dame, Mich St and Minnesota. They lost all 4 of those games. Now, they lost 3 of the 4 by 4 points or less but they still lost. They need to keep beating the bottom of the league but could use a few wins against teams like MD, Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin. Speaking of Wisconsin, they were the preseason favorite and they are arguably the best team. They are 10th in Kenpom, which is the highest ranked team in the conference, although they are only 1 spot ahead of Purdue. Purdue beat them head to head a few weeks ago, so you could argue for the Boilermakers. It was always going to be close between them and I think that continues to be the case. Purdue has Swanigan and Haas in the middle and both are having solid years. Swanigan has a good shot at Conference POY. He is second in the conference in scoring and first in rebounding. He is also shooting 55% from the field.

Michigan St is playing better and could be dangerous come tourney time. They have some very good young talent and Izzo scheduled them very tough early on. That hurt them early in the season (as did their injuries) and will impact their seeding but they aren’t a team you will be excited to face, if you are a top 3 seed, come tourney time. Minnesota has also been a surprise team. They are 38th in Kenpom and are lead by a top 5 defense, efficiency wise. No surprise that they play good defense, considering that they are coached by a Pitino. They have a win at Purdue, which is a very tough place to play. Looks like barring some kind of a collapse, Minnesota should go to the tourney, which I don’t think many people figured on.

One of the reasons the conference doesn’t look as good is because Indiana has been so bad. They can’t play defense. They already have 6 losses and had no business losing a few of those games. To make matters worse, OG Anunoby (who was probably their best defender), is out for the season with a torn ACL. Indiana has gone from final 4 contender to bubble team in a hurry. They are still very talented and are 14th in offense according to Kenpom, so my guess is they still find a way to get into the tournament but they don’t appear to be the title contender many thought they would be to begin the season.

And of course, you have the Big Ten leaders, the Maryland Terrapins. Maryland is 46th in Kenpom. The offense is only 84th but the defense is 36th. They have had some issues closing out games and have been fortunate to win some games but this team keeps finding ways to win and when you are a young team, that is tough to do. I don’t think they are the best team and come tourney time, I don’t think they are more than the 4th or 5th best team in the conference but they do have talent and are very dangerous. MD has some tough games in the second half of the year, so we will learn more about them at that point but they have started the year off as good as any fan could have hoped and have positioned themselves to get a top 5 seed in the tourney.

I predicted that the Big Ten would get 7 teams in the tourney and that still feels like what will happen, although Minnesota getting in wasn’t a prediction of mine. Purdue and Wisconsin still feel like they are easily the best 2 teams in the conference and the only 2 teams I feel confident about when it comes to going deep in the tournament.

Rob Shields
Rob Shields

Rob has interviewed guests from outlets such as ESPN, Sports Illustrated, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, FOX Sports, Baseball Prospectus, Athlon, Sporting News, MLB Network, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Info Solutions, The Boston Globe, The Washington Post, Sports on Earth, Grantland, NFL Network, FanGraphs, Football Outsiders, ProFootballFocus, etc. etc. The Baltimore native lives in Perry Hall with his Wife Lindsay, and two young sons. He has appeared as a guest on 105.7 The Fan, Q1370, and WNST 1570. Co-Host of The Warehouse: https://anchor.fm/the-warehouse Co-Host of Sports Tonight: https://anchor.fm/sports-tonight

X