146 Games To Go; Quick Hits on the Baltimore Orioles

That series in Toronto was not a lot of fun. As the Orioles return home tonight to begin a weekend series vs. the Red Sox; Baltimore is 7-9 overall and in the basement of the American League East.

In the approximate words of The Ramones, 146 games to go, I want to be sedated.

(You can discuss this on the BSL Board here.)

Well, that last line is not particularly accurate. I don’t want to be sedated. It was the O’s who looked comatose much of their time North of the border. Teams often have that look when their starting pitching doesn’t give them a chance.

Norris lasted 2.1, allowing 9 er.
Jimenez gave 5 innings, allowing 4 er.
Tillman went 4.1, and allowed 7 er to the Jays for the second time this year.

You really don’t need much discussion or analysis past this. The starting pitching has to be better. That’s the primary takeaway of the initial 16 games.

Orioles starters have a 5.82 era, worst overall in the game.
In 2014, O’s starters had a 3.61 era, good for 12th best overall (5th in the AL). In the 2nd half, they were collectively down to 2.98.

That 2nd half era last year was extremely low. That current 5.82 era is extremely high. It didn’t make sense to project that 2nd half era to be maintained throughout 2015, nor does it make sense to believe the O’s starters will remain abysmal throughout this year.

Ultimately I see the O’s starters being around the middle of the pack. That 3.61 starters era last year would currently be good for 9th overall. Somewhere between that as a low, and 4.30 for a high, seems likely to me for their final numbers this season.

As the starters improve, things will fall into place. The bullpen will be able to do more matching-up. I believe this O’s offense will be in the upper-third in runs (currently 8th overall). The on-base % (currently 6th) seems a bit inflated, but the slugging (currently 3rd) does not.

Get average ish to plus starting pitching, and this team will contend as anticipated in the East. If my expectations of a rebound from the starters falls flat, then it is going to be a long Summer here in Charm City.

Of course one of the reasons we believe the starting pitching will rebound, is because we believe in the defense that should be behind them.

Should be, being the operative phrase. The O’s need Hardy, and Schoop back sooner than later. Wieters for his career has been regarded as a plus defensive catcher. Last year he couldn’t throw. By the available metrics – Joseph was superior defensively last year, particularly with his pitch framing, but also with his throwing. This year, Joseph has had some runners steal against him (and the staff).  Between last year and this season, Joseph still only has 90 games caught in the Majors. I’m not sure we have enough of a sample size to really definitively say what he defensively as a catcher. I think we can say that if Wieters gets back and can not throw as he once did – that Joseph is probably better. I think there is also a chance Wieters could be the better defensive option (though for the record, I’ve never loved his framing or pitch-calling abilities).

So, what is the latest on these guys?

On the 21st, MASN’s Roch Kubatko reported that Hardy would be working out with AAA Norfolk today. The question is when will he get into a game? If he is physically ready to work out, I think expecting him back by May 15th is reasonable. That’s three weeks from today.  If he’s not ready in that window to get a week of MiL ab’s and return to the Majors; there will be plenty of cause for raised eyebrows and additional concern.

Yesterday, The Baltimore Sun’s Ed Encina stated that the O’s are still waiting for Schoop’s swelling to go down. Once that happens, the O’s will be able to give a more accurate time frame for Schoop’s return. What was stated initially last Saturday (the 18th) was that Schoop was looking at 3-4 weeks minimum on the DL, with as-long as 6-8 weeks possible. It’s plausible he is back before June 1st, and probably more likely he is back after that. Right now, the start of June is what I’m hoping for as a realistic target date.

On Wednesday, The Sun also had a report updating the status of Wieters. They reported that Wieters would be catching 2-3 innings today in an extended Spring Training game. Seeing how Wieters responds to that usage, will be something to watch this weekend. If he progresses through that test without pain, a mid-May return for him is also possible. If there are set-backs, his return becomes a giant question mark.

Some Quick Hits:

1) I feel bad for Flaherty going on the DL. With Schoop out, this was an opportunity for Flaherty to get some everyday playing time.

2) It was nice to see Machado break out last night. He has to be a regular force in the lineup.

3) During this 4 game losing streak, we’ve seen comments resurface at the BSL Board and elsewhere that Duquette and the O’s leadership did not do enough to augment the existing roster this Winter.

I wanted Markakis back, but was not excited about offering him a 4th year. I thought his defense was better than the metrics showed him to be most years, and not as good as the accolades he had received. On the days he had his legs, he looked good. When his legs looked like they were in quicksand, the range was very limited. What you liked, is that you could rely on him to make the plays that needed to be made, and even though his arm was not what it once was – he made the right decisions throwing. 

I bought into the idea that Snider had a decent chance to provide similar production this year. In that opening series in Tampa Bay, he did flash some glove. Also showed his arm. Since then, it’s been an adventure. Right now, it looks like Showalter might give him in time in LF to see if that is better for him vs. RF (the metrics have shown him to be better in left historically).

I expected to lose Cruz, and didn’t have a problem with the O’s not matching the 4 year $57M deal he signed with Seattle. Looking back, the mistake was not offering him a 2 year deal when they signed him prior to the 2014 season.

Andrew Miller was the FA I wanted the O’s to sign most, and I would have matched or possibly exceeded the 4 year $36M contract he signed with NY. Relievers are volatile, and it is a lot of money for a reliever – but I sure like his chances to be excellent during the duration of that contract.

Beyond those three, there were a few players that interested me – but none that I thought were huge losses.

For those harboring resentment at the O’s Winter, I guess I get it. After winning the East last year, and reaching the ALCS last year, the primary goal for ’15 is taking the next step. When a World Series is the goal, you want to see a roster improved.

It was fine to believe that a returning Machado, and Wieters, and an improved Davis would off-set the losses. As many have pointed out though, the issue was being reliant on those things alone.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but the moves / non-moves of the Winter really aren’t on my mind at this point.

4)  I’m not fixated on the Winter, because if the guys currently wearing the O’s uniform don’t give you more – it doesn’t really matter what or was not added.

Cruz is crushing the ball right now, but that wouldn’t have made the starters pitch any better.

Miller would look great out of the bullpen, but 60 awesome innings from him would not off-set lack of production from Machado, Davis, Pearce, and to a lesser extent – De Aza. 

I’m not saying any of the aforementioned quartet won’t hit, I’m saying they haven’t been producing so far overall. More to the point,  that if they have years below the levels we anticipated / hoped for them entering ’15, those losses in production would not have been balanced equally by having Miller back.

4a) It’s been an ugly stretch for Pearce (7 for 47 overall, .507 OPS overall, 2 for his last 24) to begin the year. Showalter gave Pearce the last two days off (aside from PH appearances each night). Unless there was an undisclosed injury, that was likely to try and clear Pearce’s head. Time to get going.

5) To be without Hardy, Schoop, and Flaherty – and still have players the caliber of Cabrera, and Paredes available as Middle Infielders is a credit to the organization. It’s a step back defensively (and probably offensively as well) with Cabrera and Paredes starting over the injured Birds; but these are still guys you can win games with. As long as the starters are out, you need these guys to grind and be part of the solution.

6) The Red Sox arrive in Baltimore with an offense which is 6th overall in runs scored. After this weekend series, the O’s will see a team from outside of the AL East (the White Sox) for the first time. Chicago is currently 24th overall in runs scored. Tonight through Tuesday night is another trip through the rotation. Let’s see some improvement.

7) If Norris struggles this next time out, it’s a pretty easy move to flip him and Gausman. Norris can be used in relief of a Gausman start, and be available to give innings while you build Gausman up over a start or two. Ideally we don’t see Gausman used until Norris’ start Sunday, so you have that option available for you five days later.

8) Camden Depot’s Matt Perez posts at the BSL Board, and said something today which I really agree with:

“I was looking at this earlier today. I figure that we have 12 pitchers in AA and AAA that should be ready to be bullpen pieces by 2016 or at least awfully close (Davies, Wright, Wilson, McFarland, Jones, Drake, Johnson, Kline, Bridwell, Berry, Givens and Escat). That’s not counting Garcia who should probably also be on that list and it also excludes Gamboa who I think will never be successful.

I feel that keeping two of Davies, Wright and Wilson in the minors as starters as depth as well as Kline to see whether he develops is a good idea. I question whether Bridwell will be ready by then as he’s the furthest away and I also think that keeping Givens and Berry in the minors as depth wouldn’t be terrible. I also question whether McFarland, Jones and Escat are good enough. But realistically that means we need to graduate at least Johnson (or let him go elsewhere), Drake and one or two of the three guys listed above.

It would be awfully easy to have a bullpen made up of Britton, Brach, Davies, Drake, Johnson, McFarland and Wright next year.”