Entering today, the Baltimore Orioles are 33-26 overall, 1 game back in the American League East, and currently the leader for the 2nd Wild Card in the American League.

The question everyone is asking around Charm City, is can this be sustained?

After all of the consecutive years of losing, it is understandable to wonder if this is the year the O’s break through. If you are an O’s fan, and you are not allowing yourself to enjoy this, you are depraving yourself as a fan.

Following today’s game, there will be 102 games left in this year. Obviously that is more than half the season. For everything that we have seen these first two months +, that just illustrates the proverbial cliche of a Major League season being a marathon, not a sprint. Baltimore fans who are asking what is going to happen months down the road, should probably follow the example of Buck Showalter. Showalter does a good job of (at-least outwardly) not riding the emotional roller-coaster. He does not get too high, he does not get too low. He realizes a great win the night before means nothing if his starter is bombed today, he realizes that if you get beat down today; you have the chance to come back and win tomorrow.

Dan Duquette had an interesting quote prior to this Phillies series saying, “If we’re in it in July we’ll be in it to win it. We’re out right now taking stock of our minor league system to see what we have to offer teams.”

That makes sense. It also shows that even for the Orioles Front Office, it is a question of where the O’s will be a Month from now.

The O’s don’t know where they are going to be, because there are a million variables at play. A Month from now, the O’s could (should?) have Markakis, Reimold, Roberts, Britton, and Lindstrom back on the roster. It will be easier to evaluate where the O’s are, and where they are going, (and potentially what they would need) with their full complement of players.

Lets take a look at some of the questions facing the O’s, and give our current thoughts.

Question 1) Beyond health, what is the primary issue facing the O’s?
Answer 1) If you are optimistic or pessimistic about the O’s chances the rest of this year; your point of view likely stems to your opinion of the rotation. An optimist would say that even if Hammel and Chen regress a bit during the year, you can expect them to remain competitive starters. You would say that Matusz has generally been pretty good, and still has the upside of being a bit better (and more consistent). You would say Britton was pretty effective in his 154 innings last year, and like Matusz, has the upside of being better.  You would say that out of Hunter, Arrieta, Eveland, Tillman, Bergesen, Moyer, and Gonzalez; you have a number of internal options who could be a league average 5th starter.

A pessimist would be scared of regression from Hammel, and Chen, believe Matusz remains a total question mark, and question Britton’s upside. A pessimist would believe none of the internal options for a 5th starter will be sufficient.

Question 2) Why are the O’s 33-26, and can that continue?
Answer 2) Baltimore enters today 10th in runs, 6th in slugging, and 10th in era. They are 17-15 against the AL East, and 18-12 on the road. To me, that provides a good overview of why the O’s have gotten off to a good start.

The slugging is not going away. The O’s were 4th overall in HR’s last year, and their lineup is that much deeper in 2012.

That the O’s are 10th in runs, and just 25th in on-base % is interesting. I don’t see the O’s dropping any further with their obp. If anything, you would think with Reynolds back in the lineup, and hopefully a returning Roberts, Markakis, and Reimold; that this number could improve. If it does, the offense can improve as a whole.

The strength of the team has been the bullpen. The bullpen’s ability to continue to be a strength directly ties back to question 1. The O’s are 22nd in Quality Starts. The bullpen has excelled, without the rotation being particularly strong. The bullpen probably regresses a bit on their own. If the rotation provides less innings than they have already, that would probably drag the pen down further. If Britton provides a lift to the rotation, and the 5th spot becomes anything above a black hole; that could help the pen. So could a returning Lindstrom. Hunter or Arrieta in long-relief (perhaps replacing Gregg), could also help. Not that Gregg has been horrible, but either Hunter or Arrieta could be used with greater regularity than Gregg has been utilized.

If the O’s continue to play .500 ball against the Division, and show an ability to win on the road; they will continue to compete.

Question 3) What about the defense?
Answer 3)
For anyone watching this team on a daily basis, it would be a hard sell to claim this defense is ‘good.’

Still, I would make the argument that the defense is not quite the issue it has been made out to be. Entering today, the O’s are 13th in Defensive Efficiency (the % of balls put in play, which are converted to outs.) That overall is pretty good, and probably a direct side effect of the O’s using more defensive shifts than ever before.

The up-the-middle defense is good.

Wieters has more errors already, than he had all of last year. Past his errors, his throwing and decision making has not been as good; but he is still the elite of the elite behind the plate.

Hardy’s UZR/150 is lower than the last two years, but he is one of the better defensive SS’s in the league.

The last several years, the defensive metrics have not loved Jones’ defense as much as Scouts and other Managers. This year, the metrics seem to be congruent with the praise.

If Roberts takes over 2nd, he might be a bit of a drop from Andino. The other-side is that Andino would likely get some time at 3rd, and would improve the defense there.

Lots of games left to be played, and plenty of other questions left to be answered. It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next couple of weeks.

Chris Stoner
Chris Stoner

Owner

Chris Stoner founded Baltimore Sports and Life in 2009. He has appeared as a radio guest with 1090 WBAL, 105.7 The Fan, CBS 1300, Q1370, WOYK 1350, WKAV 1400, and WNST 1570. He has also been interviewed by The Baltimore Sun, Baltimore Business Journal, and PressBox (TV). As Owner, his responsibilities include serving as the Managing Editor, Publicist, & Sales Director.

X