Photo

BSL: To replace Machado the O's Need to Trade for Beltre


  • Please log in to reply
74 replies to this topic

#1 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 91,583 posts

Posted 23 August 2014 - 11:02 AM

BSL: To replace Machado the O's Need to Trade for Beltre

http://baltimorespor...beltre-rangers/

 

The latest from O's Analyst Jonathan Mitchell.



#2 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 67,038 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 23 August 2014 - 11:09 AM

Is there an echo in here? :)

Totally agree...do wonder if we have to give up Bundy though. 20+ million owed is a lot.


@BSLRobShields

#3 fan4life

fan4life
  • Members
  • 145 posts

Posted 23 August 2014 - 11:47 AM

BSL: To replace Machado the O's Need to Trade for Beltre

http://baltimorespor...beltre-rangers/

 

The latest from O's Analyst Jonathan Mitchell.

 

 

I like the idea and am for it. However, not at the price of Bundy. If we pick up all the $$$ there is no way I send Bundy, I prefer something less than all the money being picked up as that isn't likely, as well as not sending Bundy. Can that option exist? If we wait the Rangers out, do they lower they're asking price? Is there anyone else in line for Beltre besides us?



#4 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,717 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:02 PM

So some additional comments on these thoughts....

 

The Rangers have top prospect Joey Gallo and his 80-grade power waiting to take over third base duties for the next six seasons and they could be eager to move Beltre and the money he is owed.

This actually a reason they WOULDN'T trade him today unless they were getting talked into a deal prospect wise.

 

​Texas isn't interested in starting Gallo's clock early and Beltre's presence makes it easy to send him back to AAA for 2015 and, depending on what's going on, trade him next July to make room for Gallo (saves money and protects a year of service).

--------------

 

Also, saying the Orioles can handle the 18M 2015 salary implies we know that the budget will be over 100M next year.  Saying they've only got 33M committed is misleading when you have another 33M in Davis/Wieters/Norris and you have ARB 1 raises to several key players....they won't go up big-time.....but collectively you have an additional 10-12M....or you have to trade guys.  You still need to address RF, LF and DH.

 

It's not that it couldn't work (trade Wieters, MGon, Matusz, Hunter) but the math today for an Orioles team that focuses on value management isn't as clean as saying we can add an 18M player.

-------------

 

Also....if you're forced to deal Bundy to make it happen, then you are likely spending money (ARB or FA) on a pitcher in the future too.  ie, trade Norris (8M) and keep MGon (2-3M) to save some 2015 $$, but MGon has an escalating cost in 2016 (6-8M), 2017 (9-10M) where Bundy would be a 500k player.

 

ll of that is fine, but it works better for a team that is deeper in prospects and more willing to use $$ to solve issues.

 

If the Orioles truly leveraged resources then you can absorb those consequences and move forward....but there's no indication the Orioles operate in that way.



#5 JonathanMitchell

JonathanMitchell

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • 52 posts
  • LocationTampa, FL

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:05 PM

Is there an echo in here? :)

Totally agree...do wonder if we have to give up Bundy though. 20+ million owed is a lot.

 

It's not that much when you consider that's for this year and next. It's a great value for one of the best players the last five years.



#6 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 67,038 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:07 PM

It's not that much when you consider that's for this year and next. It's a great value for one of the best players the last five years.


It's still a lot of money...it would represent 20% or so of most teams payroll.
@BSLRobShields

#7 JonathanMitchell

JonathanMitchell

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • 52 posts
  • LocationTampa, FL

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:08 PM

So some additional comments on these thoughts....

 

This actually a reason they WOULDN'T trade him today unless they were getting talked into a deal prospect wise.

 

​Texas isn't interested in starting Gallo's clock early and Beltre's presence makes it easy to send him back to AAA for 2015 and, depending on what's going on, trade him next July to make room for Gallo (saves money and protects a year of service).

--------------

 

Also, saying the Orioles can handle the 18M 2015 salary implies we know that the budget will be over 100M next year.  Saying they've only got 33M committed is misleading when you have another 33M in Davis/Wieters/Norris and you have ARB 1 raises to several key players....they won't go up big-time.....but collectively you have an additional 10-12M....or you have to trade guys.  You still need to address RF, LF and DH.

 

It's not that it couldn't work (trade Wieters, MGon, Matusz, Hunter) but the math today for an Orioles team that focuses on value management isn't as clean as saying we can add an 18M player.

-------------

 

Also....if you're forced to deal Bundy to make it happen, then you are likely spending money (ARB or FA) on a pitcher in the future too.  ie, trade Norris (8M) and keep MGon (2-3M) to save some 2015 $$, but MGon has an escalating cost in 2016 (6-8M), 2017 (9-10M) where Bundy would be a 500k player.

 

ll of that is fine, but it works better for a team that is deeper in prospects and more willing to use $$ to solve issues.

 

If the Orioles truly leveraged resources then you can absorb those consequences and move forward....but there's no indication the Orioles operate in that way.

 

I mentioned the arb raises. Remember, each team gets an extra $25M in tv revenue starting next year. That pays for Beltre plus.



#8 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,717 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:10 PM

It's not that much when you consider that's for this year and next. It's a great value for one of the best players the last five years.

 

....but it's not a great value in the context of how the Orioles operate.  

 

This isn't Fangraphs $/WAR assessment, it's the reality of the constraints the Orioles put on themselves.

 

Context matters. 



#9 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 67,038 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:18 PM

I'm not concerned about the Orioles ability to pay Beltre and be very competitive next year.

However, there is the MASN issue and that could make PA scared to take
on the contract.
@BSLRobShields

#10 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,717 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:19 PM

I mentioned the arb raises. Remember, each team gets an extra $25M in tv revenue starting next year. That pays for Beltre plus.

 

You mentioned ARB raises but didn't include them in the 33M so the scope of arbitration raises is significantly more than the 33M number you present.....it's more like 65-75M in commitments (arb included) for next season.....of course that doesn't look as good for your point as "33M".

 

Teams aren't getting 25M next season.  They are getting something significant, but a number of GMs have come out early and shared a little on it.  It's 25M average over 10 years (whatever) and it scales up over time....so it's not a flat 25M next year.....it's 12 or 15M and the league takes some tax out of it.

 

Yes....it should be worth 10+ M to the Orioles payroll, but the assumption, especially given the MASN stuff, that will somehow be translated into 2015 payroll lacks anything of merit given the Orioles historical approach.  In fact, if they are on the short end (anything less than their position) of the MASN outcome, it's possible you see payroll reduced to the 90-M range....if nothing else to prove a point.

 

If that happens, the numbers don't work at all.



#11 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,717 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:26 PM

I'm not concerned about the Orioles ability to pay Beltre and be very competitive next year.

However, there is the MASN issue and that could make PA scared to take
on the contract.

 

....but it has other consequences too.  The Orioles would likely be scared to be on the hook for another 15M QO type contract which could lead them to no QOs....simply to avoid the total payroll risk.

 

They only owed Johnson ~10M thru ARB3, but they weren't even willing to put the 10M on the books....THEN trade him.  They had to undersell him pre-hearing to avoid the commitment.

 

If Hardy accepted a QO.....do you think the Orioles would want to include 5M to move him?



#12 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 67,038 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 23 August 2014 - 12:32 PM

No one is going to accept a QO...not a worry and if they did, you could trade them.
@BSLRobShields

#13 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,717 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 August 2014 - 01:29 PM

I'd love to get Beltre, but I don't see it happening for a number of reasons.....btw....do we know anything about his limited no-trade?  If the Orioles are on it....you have to get Boras involved with a likely extension..

 

 

JImmy Rollins would be my target.  Cheaper acquisition, no commitments beyond this season.  Should play well for offense, defense and baserunning....

 

 

Another guy to consider is Pedro Alvarez.  No idea if he made it thru waivers, but he's essentially lost his job to Josh Harrison and as a guy making 4.25M this year headed to ARB2 next year, he potentially a non-tender candidate if they like Ike Davis at 1B.  Trading him would solve the issue for the Pirates and it could be a pre-cursor to trading MGon to them. :)



#14 Mackus

Mackus

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 33,527 posts

Posted 23 August 2014 - 02:33 PM

No chance Gonzalez passes waivers. Texas is the only place we could deal him for help.

#15 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,717 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 August 2014 - 02:35 PM

No chance Gonzalez passes waivers. Texas is the only place we could deal him for help.

 

If that was to me, I was talking about in the offseason.  

 

I know you can't tie separate trades together......but you can have whatever non-binding discussions you want.

 

Since I was throwing the Pirates/Alvarez in there....I thought I would get MGon in again.... :)



#16 JonathanMitchell

JonathanMitchell

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • 52 posts
  • LocationTampa, FL

Posted 23 August 2014 - 02:59 PM

I'd love to get Beltre, but I don't see it happening for a number of reasons.....btw....do we know anything about his limited no-trade?  If the Orioles are on it....you have to get Boras involved with a likely extension..

 

 

JImmy Rollins would be my target.  Cheaper acquisition, no commitments beyond this season.  Should play well for offense, defense and baserunning....

 

 

Another guy to consider is Pedro Alvarez.  No idea if he made it thru waivers, but he's essentially lost his job to Josh Harrison and as a guy making 4.25M this year headed to ARB2 next year, he potentially a non-tender candidate if they like Ike Davis at 1B.  Trading him would solve the issue for the Pirates and it could be a pre-cursor to trading MGon to them. :)

 

Alvarez is what the Orioles do not need, though. No glove and low OBP. I doubt he'd come cheaply, too.



#17 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 67,038 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 23 August 2014 - 03:03 PM

I don't want to trade for anyone that we have to hope can make a position change successfully in a month. I see no point in that.
@BSLRobShields

#18 BSLGabeFerguson

BSLGabeFerguson

    Ravens Analyst

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,603 posts
  • LocationCity of Angels

Posted 23 August 2014 - 03:40 PM

Terrible idea to trade Bundy for the extremely expensive Beltre. 

 

Thankfully DD has some sense.


@gabefergy

#19 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,717 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 23 August 2014 - 03:51 PM

I don't want to trade for anyone that we have to hope can make a position change successfully in a month. I see no point in that.

Alvarez is what the Orioles do not need, though. No glove and low OBP. I doubt he'd come cheaply, too.

 

OK....but you have the options that are out there....or you are stuck with internal options.

 

Texas doesn't really have a compelling reason to trade Beltre, so how far are you willing to go to convince them to deal?

 

Beyond that, it's not really in the Orioles DNA to spend significantly so you are tied to other consequences.

 

I like Beltre and it would be great if the Orioles could add him.....but what if it was Bundy, Sisco and the CompBalB.

 

Rangers argue that you are getting a QO back from Beltre after '15 (probably not....but that would be the argument)

 

 

re Rollins.....OK.....while I don't specifically disagree, I'd guess it's easier for a seasoned 35 yr old veteran to go from SS to 3B in August than a 19 yr old kid at AA....right?

 

re Alvarez.....certainly not ideal, but that's not really the question.  Is he better than your internal options for a playoff run and the playoffs?  43 walks would put him in the same company as the Os walk leaders.....again, far from ideal but he's 27, has 2 years of control (if you want them) and brings a similar offensive profile as Hardy....and while he may not be much of a defender.....he's only been slightly below average per FG until this season.

 

Brooklyn Decker went home with someone else.....pick your date from what's left.



#20 BSLRobShields

BSLRobShields

    Sr. Orioles Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 67,038 posts
  • LocationBaltimore

Posted 23 August 2014 - 05:18 PM

I think of 20+ million reasons Texas has a compelling reason to deal Beltre.
@BSLRobShields




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Sponsors