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#481 DJ MC

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 06:12 PM

Considering the disappointing season, do you guys think the cost to sign him has decreased compared to last off-season?

 

I think it's less "decreased" and more "increased less than expected on Opening Day".

 

Still...blank check.


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#482 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 06:15 PM

Considering the disappointing season, do you guys think the cost to sign him has decreased compared to last off-season?

Theoretically, but with only 1 year to free agency, the economics say you play it out next year. 



#483 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 06:15 PM

Fair. Obviously being a year closer to free agency decreases his inventive to sign now. Plus, I'm sure he has enough confidence in himself to refuse a significantly less valuable contract than he would have received if he repeated 2016.

#484 BSLRobShields

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 06:16 PM

Is this speculation presented as fact or is there truth to these statements?


Well considering the talk was that he wanted to make the AS team so bad, since it was in Miami, that he pressed during the first half, I think it's safe to say personal glory is important to him.
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#485 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 30 September 2017 - 02:03 AM

Over the last two seasons, Manny is 7th among 3Bs in WAR, just ahead of Adrian Beltre. 

 

Bryant, Donaldson, Rendon, Turner, Ramirez, Arenado, Manny. 

 

Dude wasn't an All-Star. If we go by 2017 alone he's tied for 10th in WAR among 3Bs with Todd Frazier.

 

Eye test, he might not even be top 5 in his position today. Arenado, Bryant, Turner, Ramirez, Rendon...He's not the platinum glover this time around. Though still very good with the leather. 

 

I think the truth about Manny lies somewhere in between the 2.9 WAR this year, and the 6.9 WAR in 2015. 4.9, sometimes an All-Star, never an MVP. 


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#486 BSLRobShields

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Posted 30 September 2017 - 09:05 AM

Over the last two seasons, Manny is 7th among 3Bs in WAR, just ahead of Adrian Beltre. 

 

Bryant, Donaldson, Rendon, Turner, Ramirez, Arenado, Manny. 

 

Dude wasn't an All-Star. If we go by 2017 alone he's tied for 10th in WAR among 3Bs with Todd Frazier.

 

Eye test, he might not even be top 5 in his position today. Arenado, Bryant, Turner, Ramirez, Rendon...He's not the platinum glover this time around. Though still very good with the leather. 

 

I think the truth about Manny lies somewhere in between the 2.9 WAR this year, and the 6.9 WAR in 2015. 4.9, sometimes an All-Star, never an MVP. 

Why is that where the truth lies?

 

In the last 5 years, he has had a WAR of 6.2 or higher 3 times.  One of the years he didn't was the year he got hurt ans played only 82 games.  The year was this year.

 

It seems to me that this year is more of an outlier than a sign of things to come (meaning, he is somewhere between this player and the player in the previous 4 seasons)


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#487 dude

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Posted 30 September 2017 - 09:25 AM

Still...blank check.

 

10 years 700 million?  That's a 'blank check'.  He'll sign that, no doubt.



#488 dude

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Posted 30 September 2017 - 09:26 AM

Fair. Obviously being a year closer to free agency decreases his inventive to sign now. Plus, I'm sure he has enough confidence in himself to refuse a significantly less valuable contract than he would have received if he repeated 2016.

 

I think this is true for a different reason.

 

There's some specific reasons why he could/should sign a shorter term extension now. 



#489 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 30 September 2017 - 10:31 AM

Why is that where the truth lies?

 

In the last 5 years, he has had a WAR of 6.2 or higher 3 times.  One of the years he didn't was the year he got hurt ans played only 82 games.  The year was this year.

 

It seems to me that this year is more of an outlier than a sign of things to come (meaning, he is somewhere between this player and the player in the previous 4 seasons)

Thats exactly what I said. Around a 5 WAR player, give or take. 


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#490 DJ MC

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Posted 30 September 2017 - 03:27 PM

10 years 700 million?  That's a 'blank check'.  He'll sign that, no doubt.

 


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#491 BSLRobShields

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Posted 30 September 2017 - 03:50 PM

Thats exactly what I said. Around a 5 WAR player, give or take.


But you also basically said not MVP level, despite him being at that level 3 of the last 4 years..:I see no reason to think there will be some big drop off
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#492 dude

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Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:52 AM

yup

 

I'll assume that's sarcastic.

 

Sorry, but I don't get the notion of a blank check.  I know it's more about saying something about commitment or being cool or whatever, but everyone has to have a limit.  It doesn't have to be a hard line and there's always ways to align the same $$ so it works for both sides.

 

Beyond that, I'd want Machado to be here for something other than the money.  If it's just about the money I'll question some of the commitment to the broader picture of winning.  This happens all of the time with players, especially Boras clients.**

 

I think it's difficult to align recent Orioles success specifically with MM's performance, so his presence isn't really the determing factor for organizational success.

 

Still....I want the guy, at least for a couple more years.  I just think we should frame contracts (still opinion).

 

**Machado is not a Boras client anymore, I'm just referring to situations where agents push for the last dollar regardless of circumstance.



#493 Mackus

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Posted 01 October 2017 - 09:57 AM

My limit is above what it will take to be the top bidder. It's below a billion dollars. But above what every other team will bid. I make him say no to the best offer if he wants to leave. Sound better?

#494 Mackus

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Posted 01 October 2017 - 10:02 AM

I only see three options in regards to Manny:

Let him walk after 2018 for minimal comp
Trade him; this offseason or during 2018
Sign him to a deal for 8-10+ years, for huge AAV, that includes opt out(s) so Manny can retest the market if he chooses

"Reasonable contract" isn't a possibility. 5/$150M is as unrealistic as 3/$30M.

#495 DJ MC

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Posted 01 October 2017 - 12:23 PM

My limit is above what it will take to be the top bidder. It's below a billion dollars. But above what every other team will bid. I make him say no to the best offer if he wants to leave. Sound better?


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#496 dude

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Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:17 PM

My limit is above what it will take to be the top bidder. It's below a billion dollars. But above what every other team will bid. I make him say no to the best offer if he wants to leave. Sound better?

 

That's fine...not trying to be a jerk, but there are no bidders right now.  

 

If you wanted to extend him prior to FA, how does that fit into your 'blank check'?

 

Fair enough if you want to just take him into FA and let everyone else get involved.  I think there will be money out there for him, although I'd also say the market might be thinner than he (his agent) would hope.  Also, I got 20 bucks that says he wants to find his way to the Marlins, so it may be less about being the high bidder and more about over-whelming him to not sign there.



#497 dude

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Posted 01 October 2017 - 01:19 PM

I only see three options in regards to Manny:

Let him walk after 2018 for minimal comp
Trade him; this offseason or during 2018
Sign him to a deal for 8-10+ years, for huge AAV, that includes opt out(s) so Manny can retest the market if he chooses

"Reasonable contract" isn't a possibility. 5/$150M is as unrealistic as 3/$30M.

 

I think there's a 4th option, I was going to start a different thread, but maybe I'll do it here later.

 

We should agree the Orioles' only approach is to let him walk as a FA. 

They literally have nothing (by any assessment) to create the opportunity of some extension.






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