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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 01:54 PM

When you project out Chris Davis for '12, would you go Over or Under Davis having a .750 OPS, and 20 bombs?

It was a shame that he dealt with injuries down the stretch last year. His power to all fields is obvious.

In ’08, Davis had 42 XBH’s in 295 ab’s with the Rangers, posting a .880 OPS.

In 391 ab’s in ’09, Davis had 38 XBH’s (including 21 homers) as his OPS dropped to .726. (Slugging % fell from .549 to .442).

In '10, Davis had just 120 ab’s with the Rangers.

In '11, Davis had 199 ab’s (17 xbh's, 11 bb's, 63 k's) with Texas and the O’s. Davis was absolutely on fire in '11 with AAA Round Rock. (193 ab’s, 1.229 OPS, 39 xbh’s, 24 homers, .368 baa) The only negative blemish on his time there was his 11 bb’s vs. his 58 k’s.

In his Major League career, Davis has a career .700 OPS against LHP, and a .768 OPS against RHP.

I'm pleased that the plan is keep Reynolds at 3rd, and use Davis at 1st. Not just because I believe Reynolds plays better at 3rd, but because I thought Davis was very stiff there.

I was hoping that the O's would be in position to bring Davis off the bench this year, but I'm ok with giving him everyday ab's. If he gets 550 ab's, I would expect him to reach that .750 OPS, 20 hr level; I'm not sure he goes over it.

#2 JonathanMitchell

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 02:04 PM

If he gets the at-bats I can see 20 HRs and a 750 OPS and given the lack of options I think he could get enough at-bats to post that, albeit with a low AVG.

#3 Mackus

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Posted 25 January 2012 - 02:13 PM

.750 and 20 sounds about right if he gets ~500 PAs, those are right around his career MLB numbers so far per PA (20.33 HR, .749 OPS). I'd say with regular time he may do a bit better than that, but he isn't likely going to be somebody we are happy to have on the team, yet alone starting as our 1B. There is still a slim chance he really puts things together and can be a 25-30, .850ish OPS guy but I don't really see that as being likely.

That said, he's currently both our best offensive option at the position and the only guy in the upper minors or majors with any upside at 1B, so might as well see what he can do unless a more promising young player can be acquired via trade.

#4 Greg Pappas

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 03:15 PM

I'll say he goes over, which means he's our 1B'man moving forward... until a superior option presents itself.

#5 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 05:56 PM

He's definitely a wildcard.

I'd guess a little under on the OPS and over on the HR's if he plays consistently.

Something like .260/.305/.435 25 hr's.

#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 26 January 2012 - 11:17 PM

I definitely go lower because I think there is a good chance he could be DFA'ed by June.

I also think there is a chance he could be our David Ortiz.

He has the upside to be a beast but the downside is more likely.
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#7 clapdiddy

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Posted 27 January 2012 - 09:52 AM

I definitely go lower because I think there is a good chance he could be DFA'ed by June.

I also think there is a chance he could be our David Ortiz.

He has the upside to be a beast but the downside is more likely.


I agree with this. I don't see a problem with giving him at least the beginning of this season to see if he can produce.

His walks/strikeouts lead me to believe he won't succeed in this opportunity, but I'd be happy to be wrong.

#8 NCRaven

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Posted 28 January 2012 - 03:23 PM

I've always liked Davis and have advocated trying to get him for the last few seasons. He is like Reimold, in the sense that he hasn't really had a chance to establish himself, either due to injuries or a lack of commitment by his management to give him that shot. I'm glad Buck seems committed to giving both of these guys a shot at the full time 1B and LF jobs. If they prove themselves incapable, so be it, but I like both their chances.

#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 09:07 AM

CSN Baltimore: First things first for Davis
http://www.csnbaltim...464&feedID=6704

#10 bnickle

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Posted 07 February 2012 - 09:30 AM

Assuming he's not a complete blackhole, which I don't think he will be, they aren't going to DFA him by the end of June. He'll get more than 3 months.. I just haven't seen enough of Davis to get a feel for even how high his potential is let alone what I think he'll do this year. Because of that I'd have to err on the side of caution and say lower but it's not really based on anything. I'll have a better feel for Davis sometime in May.

#11 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 February 2012 - 11:58 AM

Assuming he's not a complete blackhole, which I don't think he will be, they aren't going to DFA him by the end of June. He'll get more than 3 months.. I just haven't seen enough of Davis to get a feel for even how high his potential is let alone what I think he'll do this year. Because of that I'd have to err on the side of caution and say lower but it's not really based on anything. I'll have a better feel for Davis sometime in May.


I agree with a lot of this. Was hard to get a real feel on the guy last year, with him in and out of the lineup. We did see some ridiculous power. As I look towards the year, watching him is one of the things I'm currently most interested in. Could flame out completely, or could prove to be a useful piece.

#12 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 19 February 2012 - 09:21 PM

FanGraphs (Rotographs): Chris Davis, Legitimate Late Round Sleeper?
http://www.fangraphs...-round-sleeper/

#13 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 04:19 PM

MASN / Kubatko: Another chance for Chris Davis
http://www.masnsport...hris-davis.html

#14 Why Not?

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Posted 21 February 2012 - 08:00 PM

Davis might be Carlos Pena....or Sam Horn.

#15 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 08:05 AM

Camden Crazies: http://www.camdencra...ds-betemit.html

"575 PA, .248/.297/.414. -4 fielding, -0.2 WAR
Frankly, if Davis is this bad then I have a hard time seeing him getting this much playing time. I'm assuming he'll get every chance to produce though. Lots of K's, poor defense, and not nearly enough walks or homers to make up for it. Replacement level players should be freely available - no reason to give up assets to acquire them."

#16 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 08:31 AM

Baltimore Sports and Life: “If Chris Davis receives 550 ab’s, would you take the under or over for him providing a .750 OPS, and 20 homers?”

Marc Normandin, SB Nation: “He certainly has the power in his arsenal, although it hasn’t manifested at the big league level very often. He’s been below-average offensively for his career, but the O’s at least represent a situation where Davis can stick until we know he won’t be successful, whereas the Rangers shuttled him back-and-forth between starting, sitting, and the minors. Let’s put it this way: if Davis plays enough to rack up 550 at-bats, then the over already happened.”

Stan McNeal, Sporting News: “Over and here’s why: There’s no way he gets that many at-bats unless he is producing. Now do I think he’ll hit 20 homers? No. I think pitchers have figured him out.”

Matthew Pouliot, NBC Sports / Hardball Talk: "My projection calls for him to bat .247/.302/.434."

Jim Callis, Baseball America: "I’m not sold on Davis hitting consistently enough to stay in the lineup."

#17 Oriole85

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 10:51 AM

I agree with many of the comments already stated. Do I think he'll get 20 homers provided he stays healthy, plays everyday, and decent enough to stay on the roster, sure. At the same time will his K's and lack of walks be detrimental, absolutely. Nonetheless, the Orioles aren't going anywhere, he deserves every chance to prove himself. Time for him to sink or swim, whether he is a legitimate MLBer or just 4a minor league filler. I do think it's going to very hard for him to stay in the majors playing 1B given his glove but the Orioles have nothing to lose, seeing what he brings to the table this year. Worse case scenario, he doesn't work out and they DFA him around the All-Star break or later.
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#18 DJ MC

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Posted 23 February 2012 - 04:36 PM

Davis might be Carlos Pena....or Sam Horn.


If the Orioles could get Sam Horn's production from 1990 and '91 (essentially a full season between the two) of 37 homers and a .817 OPS from Davis, which considering Horn's strikeout rate would make Davis a mirror to Reynolds, I would be perfectly happy. Now, of course, Horn did nothing else in his career outside of a couple great months as a rookie with the Sox, so it would make next year very interesting from that perspective, too.

#19 Mike B

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 08:22 PM

I think he does better than most think. 27 HR's, .775 OPS. Sort of Luke Scott type stuff.
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#20 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 25 February 2012 - 09:35 AM

MASN / Kubatko: http://www.masnsport...e-other-38.html

"The ball explodes off Davis' bat. It makes a distinct sound. I know it's him without turning around."




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