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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 11:28 AM

Tillman 2013: 33 GS, 16-7, 3.71 era, 206.1 ip, 184 hits, 33 hr's, 68 bb's, 179 k's, .730 OPS against, 38.6 GB%, xFIP 3.88, K% 21.2, BB% 8.1, LD% 21.6, SwStr % 7.9

General Thoughts:
Tillman was one of the real positives of the O's 2013 season. On an ideal staff he would be a 2 or even a 3rd starter, but at his age (turns 26 in April) there is reason to think he might have some additional upside. 

You have to love that he was able to build on the 2nd half of 2012, and be consistent enough to take the mound 33 times in '13. Those 200+ innings were huge. I also like that his numbers improved after the All-Star break, and that he had success against both LHH's (.247 baa) and RHH's (.232 baa).

 

The biggest negative in his numbers are the homers allowed.
 



#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 11:37 AM

Per Brooks Baseball:
 

Pitch Usage All Counts vs:
LHH: 4 seam 63%, Change 2%, Curve 17%, Cutter 17%
RHH: 4 seam 61%, Change 11%, Curve 17%, Cutter 11%

 

Pitch Outcomes vs:

LHH: 4 seam 1,208 pitches FB% 5.83, Change 337 pitches FB% 8.61, Curve 334 pitches FB% 2.99, Cutter 48 pitches FB% 4.17

RHH: 4 seam 924 pitches FB% 6.28, Change 165 pitches FB% 4.24, Curve 249 pitches FB% 0.80, Cutter 165 pitches FB% 3.64
 



#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 21 November 2013 - 09:04 AM

Camden Depot: Chris Tillman: Pitch Location and Sequencing with Men on Base and Bases Empty
http://camdendepot.b...cation-and.html



#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 09:41 AM

Carroll County Times: Tillman in new situation this Spring
http://www.carrollco...a14e3dce76.html



#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 09:39 AM

USA Today: Tillman finally fulfilling promise
http://www.usatoday....romise/5514611/



#6 LanceRinker

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 11:07 PM

BSL: The Orioles Have a Front-line Starter in Chris Tillman

 

http://baltimorespor...-chris-tillman/



#7 Moose Milligan

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 11:21 PM

Well when you present it that way, things look good.

 

Here's some more stuff...this first one is fantasy related, but it applies:

 

Barr is talking about his Zone% that increased from 42.6% to 46.2% last year and his F-Strike% that increased to 57.3%, which is his highest mark since 2009. Those numbers are slightly misleading, though, as Tillman increased his strike rate more significantly in the second half. That’s where he posted a 3.42 ERA, saw his strikeout rate jump to 8.56 K/9 and his walk rate drop to 2.57 BB/9. As Barr notes, he’s worth a flier if the cost isn’t too high.

 

http://www.fangraphs...question-marks/



#8 BSLMichaelWeber

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 11:31 PM

That's encouraging info Lance and Moose.

#9 LanceRinker

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 01:47 AM

I wonder how often fans feel that the O's don't have a starter capable of becoming 'that guy' because the organization hasn't developed one for so long?

 

I do believe Tillman has the tools to do it - even if he becomes a 1a. It's more reasonable to believe he's a solid 2 but the potential is there IMO.



#10 Moose Milligan

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 02:25 AM

I wonder how often fans feel that the O's don't have a starter capable of becoming 'that guy' because the organization hasn't developed one for so long?

 

I do believe Tillman has the tools to do it - even if he becomes a 1a. It's more reasonable to believe he's a solid 2 but the potential is there IMO.

 

That might be part of it.  But for me, it has to do with his stuff.  He doesn't light up the radar gun.  I don't think anyone has ever described anything in his arsenal as "filthy".  His fastball looks straight and extremely hittable all the time.  



#11 Dr. FLK

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 06:24 AM

When I see all of these guys with "sexy" stuff who are headed for their second TJS, I get happier about Tillman.  He doesn't rely on throwing 100 MPH.  He doesn't have crazy mechanics.  He just seems like a solid, steady starter to me.  He has good command, good stuff, and he knows how to pitch.

 

[If I just jinxed him...and he blows out his arm tomorrow...I am deeply, deeply sorry.]


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#12 BSLRobShields

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 06:37 AM

There is legit concern over some of his peripheral stats, especially his LOB%. So, regression is likely because of that.

But, he was a different pitcher in the second half last year. More Ks, less walks and was going deeper into games. Very quietly, he put up 200 IP. That's a different Tillman than we saw in the past.

That's why I'm more encouraged about him entering this year vs where I felt he was entering last season.
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#13 Mackus

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 08:14 AM

I don't know if Tillman is a #2 type starter or more of a 3/4 who can eat innings, but he's definitely established himself as someone I expect to be a valuable part of a contender's rotation for a long time.  Just how valuable will depend on if he can either improve on some of the peripherals or perhaps continue to outpace them.  But his ability to be a workhorse is fantastic.  Nobody on the team comes remotely close to him in terms of being capable of throwing 110-120 pitches in a game and having it not effect him in his next start.  That also allows him time to right the ship and manager a good outing even if he's given up 3 runs in the first 2 innings, which was a common routine last year it seemed.

 

I expect he'll routinely go over 200 innings over the next 5-7 years.  I just don't know if he'll typically be around league average ERA or be someone with a 120 ERA+ or even better.  Either way he's quite valuable, and I expect he'll become known for his durability in short order.


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#14 fishteacher

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 10:28 AM

That might be part of it.  But for me, it has to do with his stuff.  He doesn't light up the radar gun.  I don't think anyone has ever described anything in his arsenal as "filthy".  His fastball looks straight and extremely hittable all the time.  

I disagree with this honestly, at least in my opinion of things being "filthy".  His 12-6 curveball is really really flithy when he's throwing his 2 seamer well...it's almost Gregg Olson-like!  I still remember HTS having a computer model of how much Olson's sinker/curve would drop in the zone and out of the zone...Tillman's is pretty damned nasty!  Just my opinion though.  


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#15 fishteacher

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 10:30 AM

That might be part of it.  But for me, it has to do with his stuff.  He doesn't light up the radar gun.  I don't think anyone has ever described anything in his arsenal as "filthy".  His fastball looks straight and extremely hittable all the time.  

Plus, when he's throwing 94 mph with movement up and away or up and in depending on Lefty/Righty batters, that's pretty much "lighting up the radar" IMO.


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#16 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 10:40 AM

That might be part of it.  But for me, it has to do with his stuff.  He doesn't light up the radar gun.  I don't think anyone has ever described anything in his arsenal as "filthy".  His fastball looks straight and extremely hittable all the time.  

 

Bet he'd strike you out. ;-)


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#17 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 April 2014 - 08:45 PM

Another strong outing for Tillman tonight.

Through 3 games...

 

1-1, 0.84 era, 21.1 ip, 15 hits, 2 er, 2 hr's, 3 bb's, 15 k's,



#18 JeffLong

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Posted 12 April 2014 - 11:15 PM

BSL: Tillman's Fantastic Start
http://baltimorespor...antastic-start/


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#19 BSLRobShields

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Posted 17 April 2014 - 09:23 PM

On our show tonight, Paul Sporer was raving about Tillman. He really likes his upside and feels he can be a legit TOR guy.
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#20 JohnnyK27

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Posted 19 April 2014 - 10:01 AM

A lot of things I've read think Tillman shouldve been pulled because of injury concerns a few hitters before he was. I wonder if folks here feel the same way. I think Buck let him finish out of respect that Tillman's earned and I'm not too concerned about the slightly inflated picth count on a cold night with a hitters umpire.






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