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#1 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 08:22 AM

We have an extended thread (http://baltimorespor...ic.php?f=3&t=42) asking what the O's should do with Adam Jones (i.e. trade or extend).

If you have further thoughts on that topic, please use that thread.

Use this thread to discuss Jones' performance.

Jones is off to a fantastic start. He goes into today, batting .326 (31 of 95), with 6 doubles, 1 triple, 6 hr's, 12 rbi's, and 4 steals. On the negative side, he has walked just 3 times, struck out 13 times, and been caught stealing 3 times.

His OPS is currently .960, his wOBA is .407, and his ISO is .274.
He has 2 hr's in 16 ab's against LHP. His OPS is 1.000, and he is batting .351 against RHP.

His hustle has been very clear this year. There have already been several occasions where we have seen him go into 2nd very hard.

His LD% is 19.5 (17.8 for his career). His FB% is 37.8 (33.6 for his career).
In '09, his Swinging Strike % was 13.3. In '10 it was 13.2. In '11 it was 12.9. In '12 it is 12.3.

Playing in each of the O's first 24 games, he has played 217 innings in CF. His current UZR/150 is 5.6.

In the Game Thread last night, Adam Wolff stated, "Jones might not have a lot of walks to show for it, but his plate discipline is worlds better.Maybe he never has a high walk rate, but he has a much better idea of the strike zone and a much better plan so far this season."

I completely agree with that. I also think he is talented enough to be a .300 hitter (.278 for his career). That would impact the obp% as well.

You can't expect Jones to keep up this level of play over a whole season though. In '11, Jones had 3 different months with an OPS over .850. He also had 3 different months with an OPS between .674 and .710.

The key with how big a year he is going to have, will be how low, and how long are the lows?

#2 bnickle

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 08:34 AM

A couple of thoughts

- His approach at the plate is pretty good right now. Now, we've seen signs of changes in his plate discipline before and he couldn't sustain it. Hopefully, this time is different. He's never going to walk a lot but just having good ABs in general will help.

- He's playing good defense right now. He seems to be much better coming in on balls than he ever has in the past. The ball last night that knuckled and dove straight down on him last night was a ball he probably would not have caught in the past. In fact it was a ball that I could have seen getting completely by him in the past.

- He seems to have cut down on the mental lapses in general. The focus is much better. It's early though and we are winning ball games. That helps in regards to staying mentally sharp. Hopefully Adam can maintain it over the long haul and when we hit our rough patches.

#3 BSLRobShields

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 08:42 AM

As of now, his contact rate is the highest it's ever been. His out of zone swing% is better than the 2 previous seasons. His BABIP doesn't seem flukey right now with a decent 19% LD%. His ISO is way up.

I have said that I expect a few years from Adam where he posts an 850+ OPS...this could be one of those years.
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#4 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 08:45 AM

- He seems to have cut down on the mental lapses in general. The focus is much better. It's early though and we are winning ball games. That helps in regards to staying mentally sharp. Hopefully Adam can maintain it over the long haul and when we hit our rough patches.


This is a really great point. Much easier to maintain focus over a long season, when you are enjoying come to the park each day. Guess it is a chicken/egg argument, but winning just improves everything.

#5 LanceRinker

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 09:40 AM

I'm really loving Jones' hustle and intense passion for the way he plays the game right now. In the past his hustle was questioned (as a rookie) and then his passion/focus was questioned the year after that. It's like he's been listening to all of the criticism you read online and has tried to become more of a complete player.

He could still use some work running the basepaths but he does have just enough speed where he could easily steal 20 - 25 bases if he wanted.

I also don't ever see him as a high walk guy, but I do see him being more aware of the strikezone as well and that's allowing him to make better contact with the ball. It'll be interesting to see what happens when he has his first slump of the season and how much he's able to bounce back from that.

#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 10:11 AM

The 3% walk rate is awful though.
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#7 hallas

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Posted 02 May 2012 - 11:58 AM

The 3% walk rate is awful though.


It's worth noting that his performance spike is mostly tied to the fact that he's swatting the ball in the bleachers more often, which I would think is a repeatable skill. His BABIP is in line with career norms.

If he keeps doing that then either he'll enter a massive slump or his walk rate will spike. He's at least shown the ability to lay off fastballs at his eyes, so that should help his walk rate a little when people pitch around him more. His O-Swing percentage agrees with me here - it's down from 44% last year to 37% this year. Hopefully he can keep it up.

#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 03:20 PM

That was a shot from Mr. Jones today.

#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 08 May 2012 - 07:22 AM

Jones has been chasing a bit more lately. Average has dropped from .326 on the 1st, to .297 entering today.
For the season, he has a .918 OPS, with 7 doubles, 1 triple, 8 hr's, and 17 rbi. Currently 5 bb's, 17 k's.

#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 08:55 PM

Homers for the 2nd straight day, now 10 overall.

#11 Coker

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 09:06 PM

My only worry is that Jones will continue to chase the home run, leading to a sharp decline in all of his other stats.

#12 Bob Klein

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 11:26 PM

Pardon me for asking, but why the concern over Jones's walk ratio? My guess is that he gets paid to hit, and he is doing that pretty well now.

#13 Ricker Says

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Posted 11 May 2012 - 11:39 PM

Pardon me for asking, but why the concern over Jones's walk ratio? My guess is that he gets paid to hit, and he is doing that pretty well now.


Because not being able to draw walks shows a lack of patience. Not having patience isn't a good thing. Without the walks, Adam's OPS will be way too dependent on his slugging %. The most consistent, and long careers for hitters are from those who are patient, can draw walks, and consistently maintain a solid OBP, even when in their old age they slug less.
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#14 Guest_Oriole4Life_*

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Posted 12 May 2012 - 07:11 AM

He is playing hard and is getting better every year. I'm not a huge fan of long term contracts and I don't know what Adam is expecting. I would no doubt look to extend his contract. I would shoot for 3 years and no more than 5 with some vesting options and incentives. They length and not the dollar amount would be my concern. If I couldn't get that done, he'd be traded. I like him and hope he is around a long time.

#15 Oriole85

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 12:10 AM

He is playing hard and is getting better every year. I'm not a huge fan of long term contracts and I don't know what Adam is expecting. I would no doubt look to extend his contract. I would shoot for 3 years and no more than 5 with some vesting options and incentives. They length and not the dollar amount would be my concern. If I couldn't get that done, he'd be traded. I like him and hope he is around a long time.

You must've missed the "performance only" part of the title of this thread
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#16 Oriole85

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Posted 14 May 2012 - 12:15 AM

Pardon me for asking, but why the concern over Jones's walk ratio? My guess is that he gets paid to hit, and he is doing that pretty well now.

He's also getting paid to get on base?
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#17 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 08:56 AM

Jones' 15th inning hr (his 12th) last night, extended his hitting streak to 8 games.

He had a .980 OPS in April, and it is .866 so far in May.

#18 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 04:51 PM

In the 4th inning today, Jones homered for the 3rd straight day. This brought the O's back within 1, and immediately answered the Royals 3 run 3rd.

#19 Big Mac

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 07:47 PM

He has 9 BB to go with 27 K's...a pretty significant improvement from last year. He's never going to walk a ton but is on pace for about 40 BB this season.

Obviously he seems bound to regress some, but he's having an MVP-caliber season so far and deserves to be commended for that.
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#20 BSLRobShields

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Posted 17 May 2012 - 10:21 PM

He has 9 BB to go with 27 K's...a pretty significant improvement from last year. He's never going to walk a ton but is on pace for about 40 BB this season.

Obviously he seems bound to regress some, but he's having an MVP-caliber season so far and deserves to be commended for that.

He has shown that he can be a 40-60 walk guy...he needs to get back to that.
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