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Cobb improving


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#1 BSLRobShields

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:19 AM

Obviously, Cobb has had a disastrous season but he is quietly pitching much better since July. In his last 7 starts, covering 42 innings, Cobb has lowered his ERA by almost a full run.

 

His ERA is 3.42 in those starts.  He has a K rate of 6 (which sucks but is an improvement) and a BB rate of 2.1.  He has also only given up 4 homers in this recent stretch.

 

In his last 2 starts, his swinging str% is 17%.  

 

He still has a long ways to go...the K rate needs to go up more and he needs to continue to improve on the missed bats but it would be nice to see him end the year well and go into the offseason believing he can be a positive on the team next year.  He could be a good leader for this staff, which will be full of young pitchers very soon.


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#2 McNulty

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:20 AM

Read an article the other day, think it was the Athletic, that his splitter has improved a lot in the last 2 months.


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#3 McNulty

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:42 AM

Alex Cobb has long thrown a split-finger fastball, and it was such an important part of his success that he started teaching it to other pitchers. Jake Odorizzi learned “The Thing” from Cobb and used it to power his own success. But now Thing Two is in Minnesota, and Thing One disappeared.

 

Once Cobb had Tommy John surgery, something mechanically kept him from getting the same action on his pitch. Cobb survived with his excellent curve and the occasional “show me” change, but the drop on the pitch suffered greatly. He went from having five to six inches of difference between his sinker and his splitter to having virtually no difference.

 

 

 

Brooksbaseball-Chart-35.jpeg


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#4 McNulty

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:43 AM

And without the drop, the peripherals on the pitch worsened.

 

Period Vert Move GB% Whiff% 2011-2014 2.02 62.7% 18.7% 2016-2017 7.01 51.3% 12.2%

 

Cobb tried to make a go of it, still throwing the pitch occasionally and finding it and losing it repeatedly, and he may have even tried a straight change for a while this year. Now, he’s finally got something back on his splitter, and the drop has returned recently, if not all the way back to the halcyon days of early 2014.

 

Brooksbaseball-Chart-36.jpeg


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#5 McNulty

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:44 AM

Looks like The Thing has returned. In his past three starts, it’s back to 18% whiffs and 67% ground balls. In his last start, he got a season-high seven whiffs on the pitch. In related news, he threw more splitters than he has all year and struck out six Yankees and walked none in six one-run innings.

 

Maybe Cobb will start teaching the pitch to other pitchers on the staff and spread some love around. Or maybe he’ll be an August waiver trade candidate, considering the size of his deal, and bring the Orioles something for their rebuild. At the very least, it looks like he has his split-finger fastball back.

When it’s right, that’s a nasty Thing.


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#6 bnickle

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:45 AM


Read an article the other day, think it was the Athletic, that his splitter has improved a lot in the last 2 months.

We talked about this around the time of his signing. It seeems the splitter is crucial to his success

#7 Dystopia

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:57 AM

Look for him to be a lot better next season.



#8 BSLRobShields

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 11:31 AM

If some team claimed him, I don’t think I would let him go for free.

He’s a lot better than he has shown. I don’t think he’s great but I do think he has value and I would rather have trade him for value than dump him for nothing.
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#9 weird-O

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 01:54 PM

I have been surprised to see how missing ST caused such distress to his season. I also think he'll return to form next season.  


Good news! I saw a dog today.


#10 Mackus

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 02:46 PM

I'd let him go for free and be done with it. I do think it's possible, perhaps likely, that he pitches really well and we can trade him for something of value next July or later on. But I don't think that something is valuable enough to give up the chance to completely get out from under his deal.

I still think it was a smart deal to give at the time, but things obviously have changed. The only benefit he likely provides to the organization now is a possible trade return or maybe we are decent by his final season. Cash out and try again if given the opportunity.

#11 bnickle

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 02:54 PM

Of course you let him go if a team took on his contract. Not that that money would be reinvested in any way in the team but still

#12 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 04:26 PM

Best case here is that he starts perform reasonably close to his pr-TJ level and  you trade him in the off-season or at next years deadline for some meaningful prospects and a salary offset. 



#13 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 04:32 PM

We talked about this around the time of his signing. It seeems the splitter is crucial to his success

Right, one of out outstanding posters brought it up at the time. 



#14 birdwatcher55

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 05:47 PM

I'd let him go for free and be done with it. I do think it's possible, perhaps likely, that he pitches really well and we can trade him for something of value next July or later on. But I don't think that something is valuable enough to give up the chance to completely get out from under his deal.
I still think it was a smart deal to give at the time, but things obviously have changed. The only benefit he likely provides to the organization now is a possible trade return or maybe we are decent by his final season. Cash out and try again if given the opportunity.

Sign me on. Dial up Cashman.

#15 Ricker Says

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:14 PM

I'd let him go for free and be done with it. I do think it's possible, perhaps likely, that he pitches really well and we can trade him for something of value next July or later on. But I don't think that something is valuable enough to give up the chance to completely get out from under his deal.

I still think it was a smart deal to give at the time, but things obviously have changed. The only benefit he likely provides to the organization now is a possible trade return or maybe we are decent by his final season. Cash out and try again if given the opportunity.

What do you mean by this specifically? You think they will reinvest those funds in another FA SP?
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#16 Ricker Says

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Posted 08 August 2018 - 10:16 PM


Of course you let him go if a team took on his contract. Not that that money would be reinvested in any way in the team but still

Why but still? Especially if he somehow has some fluke 2.25 ERA heading into July (way stranger things have happened) and gains legitimate trade value. Not likely, but not impossible and if they aren't reinvesting, I just don't see the downside.
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#17 Mackus

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 06:20 AM

Why but still? Especially if he somehow has some fluke 2.25 ERA heading into July (way stranger things have happened) and gains legitimate trade value. Not likely, but not impossible and if they aren't reinvesting, I just don't see the downside.

Good point.

I've been waffling between saving contract being a positive because we could use it elsewhere and negatively evaluating the trades because I don't see them reinvesting the salary savings. It's hard to juggle the "what would I do" approach with the "what will they do" approach.

#18 Mike B

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Posted 09 August 2018 - 07:10 AM

If we get value, then sure trade him, but I am against another salary dump.  I think the Cobb we are seeing now, is the guy who has been a good pitcher in the AL East for years.   Trading now will bring nothing more than salary relief.  If we are patient, I think he will build his value, and we could trade him at next years deadline for a legitimate return.

I also think,we have to at least field a team next year.  As it stands right now, that team is another 115 loss team.  I am not sure the fan base can take another year this bad.  


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#19 BSLRobShields

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 03:21 PM

Another good start today.
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#20 dude

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Posted 12 August 2018 - 04:09 PM

Another good start today.

 

Yup.

 

I understand why people don't view him as effective right now...becasue the numbers say it....but he was absolutely the #3 FA pitcher this offseason behind Arrieta and Darvish.

 

The lesson learned...and we haven't learned it because they keep doing it....is there are consequences beyond just the contract for waiting on guys at the end.  we saw it with Ubaldo, we saw it with Gallardo and we see it with Cashner and Cobb.  Offseason preparation is important and for people that think "so what, just go do your work", Britton is an example of a guy who was just doing his work when he damaged his Achilles...imagine if he'd had been a FA.

 

My guess would be that Cobb, Bundy and Cashner are a reasonable start point for a credible rotation in 2019.






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