Y'all know that for several years my issue with the makeup of the O's is their all or nothing lineup. My theory being they tend to score runs in bunches or not at all. So I did a little checking. Interesting data.
Going back since the start of 2016 through the game today here are the O's run distribution and how they fare.
I chose the following breakdowns for the reason listed.
0-2 runs scored - expect a team to lose most the time
3-4 runs scored - expect the O's to lose more than they win due to starting pitching
5-6 runs scored - expect the team to win more than they lose (MLB average runs scored is right around 4.5 runs/game)
7+ runs - expect the team to win most of the time
0-2 runs scored: O's are 15-94
3-4 runs scored: O's are 38-58
5-6 runs scored: O's are 51-22
7+ runs scored: O's are 70-15
So the W-L results are just about what I would expect to see. But I think the runs scored distribution supports my theory. The O's have played 363 games since the start of the 2016 season. In that span they have scored:
0-2 runs: 30% of the time
3-4 runs: 26% of the time
5-6 runs: 20% of the time
7+ runs: 23% of the time
Almost a quarter of the time they score runs in bunches and almost a third of the time they don't score much at all. Now I have no idea how this distribution would look for other teams?