Win every game the rest of the regular season, make it to but lose the Big Ten tournament final, and we don't get an at large bid, IMO.
Winning out the regular season gets us to 21-10 with only 2 decent wins (Butler and Michigan, maybe add @Nebraska but they are outside top-50 currently and would likely drop if we beat them), but still doesn't get a double bye. So you're the 5 or 6 seed and play a game against a bad team (Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, or Minnesota). Then you'd get a game against the 3 or 4 seed most likely, which should add another good win. Then you beat the 1 or 2 seed (or a lower team that's also managed some upsets to get to the semifinals) and win, presumably a 4th good win on the year. Then you lose in the finals.
So we're 24-11 with only 4 good wins, none on the road. The record is ok, but the pathetic non-conference schedule is pretty damning. I think that far outweighs the "last 10" record which would be pretty good in this scenario. In recent years the committee has valued "who did you played and who did you beat" over "how hot are you now", and I think that continues.
I don't think we'll need to worry about this scenario unfolding, but I think we're on the outside looking in even if we catch fire at this point.