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2017-18: Game 28 @Nebraska 2/13 7PM BTN


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#1 BSLZackKiesel

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 08:00 AM

The Cornhuskers enter this game with a 5-game winning streak, and they've been winners in 7 of their last 8. Their record stands at 19-8 (10-4 B1G), and they sit at 4th in the conference (5 spots above Maryland).

 

Key Win: Michigan

Key Losses: St. John's, UCF

 

Nebraska Statistics (KenPom: #52)

 

Field Goals: 44%

Three Pointers: 35%

Free Throws: 72%

Rebounds: 36/game

Assists:Turnovers: 14:11

 

Maryland Statistics (KenPom: #39)

 

Field Goals: 48%

Three Pointers: 39%

Free Throws: 75%

Rebounds: 37/game

Assists:Turnovers: 14:14


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#2 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:33 AM

Needed a miracle finish to win on the road at Iowa back in December when we had Jackson.  Aside from another near-miracle finish against Michigan, we haven't even been close to a road win since.

 

Not feeling confident about finding one against a surging Nebraska team.  But would do a lot for my opinion of the squad if they can carry over some momentum from Saturday's performance and bring it on the road with them.

 

I have no illusions of this team doing enough to end up dancing, unless they have a plane slide off the tarmac before heading to MSG.  My current goal is for them to play well enough down the stretch that I think it's a shame that they aren't in and getting a chance to play while at their peak.  I want to avoid feeling like it doesn't matter that they didn't make it, because they'd get rolled even if they were in (like last season).  Turgeon hasn't had a team finish strong since he's been here, would do a little bit of good for my opinion of him - and improve my opinion of Cowan and Huerter's leadership abilities - if this squad can improve over the final month plus of the season.



#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 09:49 AM

This team can dance, and their odds drastically go up (or down) depending on Tuesday night.

 

As Mackus said, they've been a disaster on the road so far....  (though they played pretty well at Purdue, and it was a game at PSU... so maybe they are ready to breakthrough.)



#4 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 10:47 AM

Win every game the rest of the regular season, make it to but lose the Big Ten tournament final, and we don't get an at large bid, IMO.

 

Winning out the regular season gets us to 21-10 with only 2 decent wins (Butler and Michigan, maybe add @Nebraska but they are outside top-50 currently and would likely drop if we beat them), but still doesn't get a double bye.  So you're the 5 or 6 seed and play a game against a bad team (Wisconsin, Illinois, Rutgers, Iowa, or Minnesota).  Then you'd get a game against the 3 or 4 seed most likely, which should add another good win.  Then you beat the 1 or 2 seed (or a lower team that's also managed some upsets to get to the semifinals) and win, presumably a 4th good win on the year.  Then you lose in the finals. 

 

So we're 24-11 with only 4 good wins, none on the road. The record is ok, but the pathetic non-conference schedule is pretty damning.  I think that far outweighs the "last 10" record which would be pretty good in this scenario.  In recent years the committee has valued "who did you played and who did you beat" over "how hot are you now", and I think that continues.

 

I don't think we'll need to worry about this scenario unfolding, but I think we're on the outside looking in even if we catch fire at this point.


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#5 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:10 AM

By BPI they've got a roughly 50% chance now as is.

Win out in the regular season, win 1 game in the BTT and they are in.
Win 3 of 4 to close the regular season, win 1 game in the BTT and they'll be right on the bubble imo...
Win 3 of 4 to close the regular season, lose 1st game in the BTT, and they'll be out imo.



#6 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 11:42 AM

Would love to get in, but I disagree entirely with that assessment.  I don't think we have any chance of an at large bid.

 

Doubtful that the theory will be able to be tested on the upper end.  If we lose at some point but still get in, then obviously it was wrong. 



#7 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 01:16 PM

I think VA Tech had a 23, 24 win team not get in once cause the rest of their resumue was garbage. A ranked SMU team didn't get in a few years ago. There is a 1% chance of MD dancing, and that is winning the BTT. Meaning beating 3 teams better than them in a row away from home. So...0% chance. 

 

Maryland isn't in on Lunardi's updated Bracketology. They aren't first four out, or next four out. Nebraska and St. Bonaventure are in the first four out. So Nebraska needs this one. Bonnies got their win over MD. Syracuse is there too and might get in on name and coach credits. I think in conference Penn State gets a nod before MD as far as not likely to make it goes. 

 

I definitely don't think winning out then winning just one tournament game is enough. If they get to Sunday in the BTT but lose, they might have climbed into that first four out, and then maybe they are 50% at that point. 50% now doesn't make sense to me.


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#8 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:36 PM

39th in BPI, and given a roughly 50% chance as of today making the dance.


Next four out on Bracket Matrix....
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 

They aren't that far away.  Tomorrow huge either way.



#9 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2018 - 02:57 PM

Admire the optimistic outlook on their chances, I just don't share it. 

 

Losing tomorrow would be a (further) death knell.  But obviously I already think they are toast even if they win the rest, so I don't think winning tomorrow does anything for us in terms of dancing.  It would certainly be huge towards achieving my remaining goal, which is to end the season playing like a team that could win a game or two if we were in the dance.



#10 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:30 PM

Tied at 18... 7:35 left.



#11 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:30 PM

Cowan with a floater.



#12 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:31 PM

Kevin finds Wiley for 3.



#13 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:32 PM

Offense working through Bruno... he's backing guys down.



#14 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:35 PM

27-23 MD... 4:30 left.



#15 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:36 PM

Highlight dunk for the Huskers....  followed by an extra-curricular throw down of Cowan...  could have been a T.



#16 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:44 PM

Cowan gives MD the lead... 1:10 left.



#17 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:47 PM

Bruno with a put back to end the half... MD leads by 2.



#18 Mackus

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 07:56 PM

Yikes. I'll take a 2 point lead but that was a tough watch.

Couple nice plays for each side, but other than that was some rough basketball for both squads.

#19 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 08:05 PM

MD 13 of 26....  3 of 7 from 3, 3 of 4 at the line...

Bruno is 5 for 8... 12 points, 4 boards, 3 assists....
Cowan 7

Huerter 5
Morsell 5


MD down on the boards 17-14...

Terps with 6 turnovers.



#20 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 13 February 2018 - 08:05 PM

All ball... called a foul.






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