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BSL: Schedule could help Ravens salvage season


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#41 bnickle

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Posted Yesterday, 02:52 PM

I said this before the rash of QB injuries on teams we play. We should make the playoffs based solely on the ease of our schedule. The schedule has only gotten easier since I said that and honestly it's still a true statement as we sit a 4-5 after 9 wins. Rob says this is me setting up to bash the Ravens if they don't make it but give them no credit if they do make it. He's exactly right because most likely all the Ravens have to do from this point on to make the playoffs is just be a mediocre football team. Now, they could play better than mediocre and make the playoffs and if that's the case Ill say that.

#42 jkough1

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Posted Yesterday, 02:57 PM

Oh I totally think the Ravens are backing their way into the playoffs. It'd be a pretty epic failure if they don't. 

 

They don't even need to be a mediocre team to get in. They just have to beat a team that hasn't won, a 2-7 team, and two 3-6 teams. The only way their schedule could be any easier is to play SF too. 



#43 bnickle

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Posted Yesterday, 03:15 PM

Oh I totally think the Ravens are backing their way into the playoffs. It'd be a pretty epic failure if they don't.

They don't even need to be a mediocre team to get in. They just have to beat a team that hasn't won, a 2-7 team, and two 3-6 teams. The only way their schedule could be any easier is to play SF too.

Exactly. If we don't back our way in at 9-7, assuming 9-7 would get us in, it is a huge failure. Let's assume @Pitt is a loss. You need 5 of the remaining 6.

@GB (1-3 with Hundley)
Hou( 3- 6 overall, 0-3 in games Savage started)
@Cle(0-9)
Ind(3-7)
Cin(3-6)
Det(5-4)

I mean even the hardest of these games above are home games. Detroit, Cincy, and Indy. Just no excuse not to win 5 out of 6.

#44 BSLRobShields

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Posted Yesterday, 03:20 PM

100% agree.

Even with our injuries, these are games we should win.

But this is why i asked the question, do you prefer to back into the playoffs or have a much higher pick?

Backing into the playoffs with this schedule isn’t exactly an accomplishment imo.

Guess we need to see how the team is playing to really determine that answer.
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#45 jkough1

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Posted Yesterday, 03:33 PM

I want to see how they play with a healthy WR core and Woodhead. 

 

I like this team and group if those guys are good enough. And I like this group good enough moving forward that I don't need a marginally better pick. 

 

I also think 8-8 or 7-9 will be the record of the team that gets the last WC spot, so I think there's a strong chance we back into that spot quite hard. And I still wouldn't rule out our ability to go win at KC or Tenn...they just don't scare me. We're not winning @NEP, and likely not @Pitt though as a divisional game that might be different. 

 

Count me in a group that expects Joe to raise his level of play a bit as well as we need him to down the stretch (particularly in singular games that we need him to)...but not trying to bring that debate into this thread. So let's keep that out :)



#46 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted Yesterday, 03:43 PM

So Ravens have gone from having no shot at the playoffs to being a complete failure if they don't back their way in. LOL


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#47 jkough1

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Posted Yesterday, 03:44 PM

To be fair, he thinks they're going to be a complete failure. This is what he's been setting up all along. 



#48 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted Yesterday, 03:49 PM

To be fair, he thinks they're going to be a complete failure. This is what he's been setting up all along. 

Oh of course. It's just hilarious.


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#49 Mackus

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Posted Yesterday, 04:12 PM

The schedule really is quite amazing.

 

We've played backup or otherwise joke QBs in 5 of the first 9 games and will do so in 4 of the final 7.  That's over half the games where the other team doesn't have a real quarterback.  And that's counting Andy Dalton and Blake Bortles as real quarterbacks.



#50 jkough1

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Posted Yesterday, 04:17 PM

And Ben hasn't missed any time yet, when's the last time that happened? 



#51 bnickle

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Posted Yesterday, 04:21 PM


Oh of course. It's just hilarious.

Whats hilarious is I gave you +160 a few days ago on what is +120 according to your metrics and you were still too scared to take it. Told me I wasn't giving you good odds. ROFL. Its ok to admit you don't believe the 45%. I know you're a slave to these computers but I promise I won't tell anyone you are betraying them

#52 jkough1

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Posted Yesterday, 04:43 PM

I've offered to take the +160 by the way, Nickle. You've shied away from accepting. I think it's mainly because you're scared ;)



#53 BSLGabeFerguson

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Posted Yesterday, 05:39 PM

Whats hilarious is I gave you +160 a few days ago on what is +120 according to your metrics and you were still too scared to take it. Told me I wasn't giving you good odds. ROFL. Its ok to admit you don't believe the 45%. I know you're a slave to these computers but I promise I won't tell anyone you are betraying them

Whether or not I am interested in taking your bet has literally nothing to do with the odds. I know that must be hard for you to understand, but I'll try to spell it out for you. 

 

I said the Ravens are in the best position right now to take the 6th seed. 

 

You initially claimed this is ludicrous.

 

I pointed to the fact that the schedule is easy and the other teams in contention have much harder schedules.

 

I then pointed out that statistical/analytical models also show the same thing, the Ravens have the best odds.

 

You still say this is wrong.

 

Now you claim the Ravens would be complete failures if they don't back their way into the playoffs because of the ease of schedule.

 

Do you see how big of a joke you look now?


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#54 bnickle

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Posted Yesterday, 07:20 PM

I've offered to take the +160 by the way, Nickle. You've shied away from accepting. I think it's mainly because you're scared ;)

I missed it. I'll PM you. 



#55 bnickle

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Posted Yesterday, 10:14 PM

If the Ravens make the playoffs at 8-8 I'll be incredibly embarrassed. Especially, with this schedule. Doesn't even count for me. It's like getting a bid to a bowl game with a 5-6 record. Yuck.

#56 bnickle

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Posted Yesterday, 10:21 PM

Whether or not I am interested in taking your bet has literally nothing to do with the odds. I know that must be hard for you to understand, but I'll try to spell it out for you.

I said the Ravens are in the best position right now to take the 6th seed.

You initially claimed this is ludicrous.

I pointed to the fact that the schedule is easy and the other teams in contention have much harder schedules.

I then pointed out that statistical/analytical models also show the same thing, the Ravens have the best odds.

You still say this is wrong.

Now you claim the Ravens would be complete failures if they don't back their way into the playoffs because of the ease of schedule.

Do you see how big of a joke you look now?

They aren't the favorites. Oakland is and I'd have put Buf ahead of them too had they stayed with Taylor at QB. That news broke after I first debated your claim. Just because a model says they are the statistical favorite doesn't make it a fact.


The one thing I will do us readjust my % based on two factors. I said earlier I agreed with Cerrano that their odds were likely around 15%. I raise that now to around 25% for two reasons. 1. Buffalo is replacing Taylor. 2. There is a real chance 8-8 gets the last spot something you just don't think about until you realize how shitty all the teams have played outside the Top 5.

#57 bnickle

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Posted Yesterday, 10:30 PM

BTW Vegas has Oak at higher odds to win the SB and win the AFC. Doesn't necessarily mean they think Oak is more likely than the Ravens to make the playoffs but I think that's a good assumption

#58 Miller192

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Posted Yesterday, 10:49 PM

We're talking about playoffs scenarios with a 4 win team heading into week 11.  Yikes!


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#59 BSLRobShields

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Posted Yesterday, 10:52 PM

We're talking about playoffs scenarios with a 4 win team heading into week 11. Yikes!


They needed to be a 5 win team through first 10 games..I felt that before the season.

Now, as the schedule has turned out, I think they should be a 6 win team(and I think if they just had a few of the Injurwd guys back, they would be) and then clean up on the back half of the schedule.
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