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BSL: Schedule could help Ravens salvage season


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#1 BSLJasonBHirschhorn

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Posted 11 November 2017 - 10:06 PM

Schedule could help Ravens salvage season:

 

http://baltimorespor...salvage-season/


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Jason B. Hirschhorn is an award-winning journalist and Pro Football Writers of America member. He covers the NFL for Sports on Earth and SB Nation. He also serves as the senior writer and editor Acme Packing Company, a Green Bay Packers blog. Follow him on Twitter: @by_JBH


#2 jamesdean

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Posted 12 November 2017 - 10:38 AM

Schedule could help Ravens salvage season:

 

http://baltimorespor...salvage-season/

As the team stands right now, they're not a play-off contender.  Not even close.  There was an article in the Sun this morning about the remaining schedule and how it at least offers a sliver of hope for the Ravens going forward but I don't know how anyone can seriously think they'll wind up in the post season.  The offense would have to undergo a radical change, meaning running the ball a lot more, before they'd have a chance long term.  I thought they were an 8-8 team 3 months ago and I still feel that way. 


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#3 JohnnyK27

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:35 AM

The Ravens are clearly nothing better than pretenders. The only thing the schedule will do I'd save the coaching staff and drop the pick to the middle of the round.
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#4 Mackus

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:41 AM

I've felt for a while now that the team is worse than 2015 but the amazingly easy schedule will lead to us getting 2 or maybe even 3 more wins than that season.

 

Not easy enough to get us into the playoffs, though.  I'd put our playoff odds at about the same odds as winning a game when kicking off down 8 with a minute to go and no timeouts.



#5 BSLSeanJester

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 08:48 AM

Even with the easy schedule, this team just isn't good. They've played an insanely easy schedule so far and they're still 4-5

 

There seems to be a disconnect between coaches and players, too. For the bye week I doubt we see anything really fixed.

 

They'll be lucky to win 7 games IMO.



#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:43 AM

The Bills currently have the 6th spot...they are 5-4.

 

The other contenders for the 6th spot are the Raiders, us and Miami.  Miami likely will lose tonight.

 

We have the tiebreaker over Miami and the Raiders.

 

The bills travel to SD and KC the next 2 weeks and they have 2 games vs NE and 2 vs Miami.

 

I dont think Buffalo finishes better than 8-8.  Oakland still has to travel to KC, Philly and SD.  They have Dallas (which I think will be Elliotts first game back), Denver, NE and the Giants at home.  Do they have 5 wins in that schedule?

 

Miami has Buffalo and NE twice...They also travel to KC and have Denver and the Bucs at home.


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#7 Mackus

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 11:09 AM

The schedule is cake and the other contenders are struggling as well and have much more difficult schedules.  And I still think we end up well out of the playoff picture.

 

No doubt that the opportunity is there.  If you were judging just on strength-of-schedule and current record, we'd probably be the #1 contender.


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#8 jkough1

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 11:46 AM

If this team plays like it has the first 9 weeks, there is no doubt to me that we aren't a playoff team. But none of our wins we're "flukey" and 2 of our losses right now were 1 score games that historically are random. The world of randomness could balance that out. And a few of those tipped INTs fall to the ground, or the shanked punts don't happen...

 

I'll say this, given personnel that's healthy, I think it's fair to say that we've seen very much of the worst this team has to offer so far. The question is, do they have it in them to pull it together and show us their best for a few weeks. A trio of Maclin, Woodhead and Wallace, if all are healthy, could actually be good enough to get us places if we can trust our OL and trust Collins. 

 

I'm not sold on it either, but I don't think there's enough evidence that this team (or any team) in the NFL can't pull it together for 7 weeks against a slate of terrible QBs. I guess I'll take the, other bad teams have transformed in the 2nd half, this is the NFL, why not us approach. And it's certainly worth tuning in until we lose 2 more for me right now. 

 

But I wouldn't be on this team to be in the playoffs, that's for sure. 



#9 Mackus

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 12:32 PM

2 of our losses right now were 1 score games that historically are random.

 

This is a bit of a cherry pick, IMO.

 

The Bears game I'll give you was a toss-up, overtime game.  But it took two 4th quarter special teams touchdowns to get it to overtime.

 

The Titans game ended as a 3-point game, but that was after a touchdown scored in the final minute.  That's not a "toss-up, 1-possession game" in the spirit of what that means.  Technically a one possession result, but not really.  Ditto for the Vikings game, which you didn't count, but it was an 8 point defeat so one possession, but we all know it was only even that close because of a garbage TD on the final play of the game.



#10 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 01:32 PM

Alex Collins is 5th in the league in average yards after contact.

 

The pass defense is legit.  The rush defense is getting better.

 

Skura is coming off his best game...can they keep this current line together the rest of the season?  If so, I think Joe will have enough time in most games.

 

The offense has to prove it can get first downs and move the ball.  If they do and the run defense continues to be good again, they could be a dangerous team to play and they will make the playoffs.

 

If the offensive game plan stays the same and the defense wilts in the big moments, they are picking in the top 12.

 

Its really that simple.  Give the ball to Collins, open the passing game up more and hope your defense and ST does the rest.


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#11 jkough1

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 02:38 PM

This is a bit of a cherry pick, IMO.

 

The Bears game I'll give you was a toss-up, overtime game.  But it took two 4th quarter special teams touchdowns to get it to overtime.

 

The Titans game ended as a 3-point game, but that was after a touchdown scored in the final minute.  That's not a "toss-up, 1-possession game" in the spirit of what that means.  Technically a one possession result, but not really.  Ditto for the Vikings game, which you didn't count, but it was an 8 point defeat so one possession, but we all know it was only even that close because of a garbage TD on the final play of the game.

 

Eh. I'm willing to bunch the Titans gamea s a bit closer than it seemed, even if it's a cherry pick. 

 

The way the rule goes, it's 7 point games are toss ups in terms of who wins them regularly. There is nothing in that sense for games that are won or lost as for whatever reasons there are for scores or outcomes.

 

Football is a bit more situational and there is nothing to say we'll turn this around, but where I don't think the Minnesota game was at all winnable, I felt like the Titans game was, so I'll go ahead and lump it in. 



#12 JohnnyK27

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 03:54 PM

Eh. I'm willing to bunch the Titans gamea s a bit closer than it seemed, even if it's a cherry pick.

The way the rule goes, it's 7 point games are toss ups in terms of who wins them regularly. There is nothing in that sense for games that are won or lost as for whatever reasons there are for scores or outcomes.

Football is a bit more situational and there is nothing to say we'll turn this around, but where I don't think the Minnesota game was at all winnable, I felt like the Titans game was, so I'll go ahead and lump it in.

Maybe your right ...but a last minute TD when your two scores down is not a toss up game. Even if that's the way it's counted! Too many tines Joe has moseyed down the field with 4 minutes to go in a game. Burned most of the clock before scoring a late TD? Have the Ravens attempted and onsides kick before last week? That usually indicates that you gave at least some minute chance of winning.

The game where Moore scored the TD on the final play the Ravens had no chance!

#13 jkough1

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 04:18 PM

Right, all I'm saying is the law of averages counts all 7 point games the same. And indicates that there is no trend or skill in specifically being able to win close games. Say we hit the onside kick, we have only have to go 20 yards to kick a FG there. 

 

The shanked punt, the ZDS personal foul, the tipped INT, etc. The idea is that there are random-ish events that are often out of teams control, and games that result in a less than 7 point margin have those affect the game more than others. Maybe the Ravens get all the breaks in the next two games like we lost in the Chi and Tenn games and we win a couple of games we didn't have business winning. All I'm saying is that if that happens, I'll take it. 



#14 Mackus

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 04:24 PM

Iin the Chicago game, we had a kick return where the returner fell over and then got up and ran for a touchdown.  I'd hardly say we got the raw end of the breaks in that one.



#15 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 04:28 PM

The Ravens have the record they should.  All of these what ifs and what not are meaingless.  They have had bad breaks and good breaks.  

 

What gives you hope is they are 10th in DVOA, have a chance to be better on offense and play an easy schedule.

 

They are capable even if you wouldn't count on it.


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#16 jkough1

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 04:42 PM

Iin the Chicago game, we had a kick return where the returner fell over and then got up and ran for a touchdown.  I'd hardly say we got the raw end of the breaks in that one.

 

Ack! My point is getting distorted. I'd disagree with this though, generally, as it relates to the Chicago game, that was as flukey as the INT off Perriman's hands that should have been a catch or Weddle missing that tackle. The whole concept is that football is full of random occurrences that are out of teams control and that when you play in a bunch of close games there is no evidence that it's overall skill that turns that out. 

 

I'm not trying to normalize or justify any game in particular, and I'm certainly not trying to cherry pick a game or two to say that we're due or anything like that. Just saying that 7 games is a small sample, we play a lot of bad QBs. There will be some crazy things that happen between now and the end of the year, and if they go our way we could be a team that very well ends going 5-2 in a set of games that maybe we should have gone 3-4 in and that it would only take two plays in two games for that happen. 



#17 BSLRobShields

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Posted 13 November 2017 - 10:54 PM

Miami is so bad
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#18 BSLSeanJester

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 06:43 AM

They really are. They're the Orioles of the NFL. Ross is a terrible owner and it trickles down from there.

#19 Mackus

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 07:52 AM

 that was as flukey as the INT off Perriman's hands that should have been a catch or Weddle missing that tackle.

 

No, it wasn't.  Players drop passes and miss tackles every game.  Returners don't fall down at the 20, then get up and run for a TD very often.

 

The Ravens have only played one close game this season.  If you wanna argue that the Bears game could've gone either way I'm fine with that.  The Titans and Minnseota games don't qualify.  The one-possession randomness thing is because you have to make a rule when querying data because you are trying to find trends over giant samples.  But the Ttians game and the Minnesota games don't fall into the spirit of what that result is trying to say, even if the final score was within that one-possession limit.  I get that they do for the statistical analysis of the scenario and that the overall set of all games includes both blowouts that became one-score games in garbage time and excludes previously close games that become multiple score results in garbage time. 

 

But those games don't count as tossups that could go either way in any real-world sense and it is obvious to see why.  You are allowed to use nuance when looking at specific examples.



#20 Mackus

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Posted 14 November 2017 - 08:17 AM

The Ravens ridiculously easy schedule will be a benefit come draft time.  We'll probably have a weaker strength-of-schedule than many or all of the teams we end up tied with record-wise, which is the first tie-breaker.  Not really a ton of difference in a few draft spots, but if we are trying to trade up or down it could mean more on the value chart.


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