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BSL: Discussing Free Agent Starting Pitching


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#1 BSLBrandonWarne

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Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:23 AM

BSL: Discussing Free Agent Starting Pitching

http://baltimorespor...rting-pitching/


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#2 dude

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Posted 02 November 2017 - 08:26 PM

Most interesting development for me in the WS?....Yu Darvish's struggles.  I expected him to be a hammer and more or less force LAD to extend him, but it's odd how these last second views impact guys.  Depending on Darvish's/agent's approach in the offseason, he could open up a little more value to certain teams if he wants to get done early.

 

I have no delusion that the Orioles would be one of those teams....but the Mariners could be.  One thing I'm interested in is to see what other things potentially impacts where Ohtani goes.  I'd guess having high-profile Asians could be impactful for getting a deal done.  Also rumored he may want an AL team that would allow him to DH.

 

Bring in the Mariners.  If they can get Darvish early for a (relative) bargain (something between Jon's 3/51 and MLBTRs 6/160)....they could create some incentive for bringing on Ohtani....Darvish, West Coast, DH....

 

...but Dipoto likely has other issues especially with King Felix's 26M and 27M the next 2 years.  When Dipoto needs something, the Orioles are his go to team.

 

While the Orioles aren't in on those numbers and it probably doesn't make any sense for the Mariners to eat money...Hernandez has an odd 1M (conditional) contract option for 2020....so he's sort of 3/54, not 2/53.  I don't know what Hernandez would require to work something out, but what if you added 2021 money and flattened the deal....would you take Felix for 4/70?

 

I'm actually torn on that because it's easy not to like the drop in a lot of his numbers, but there's something to be said for getting a guy with the perception of being a hammer to change the dynamics of the staff.


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#3 dude

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Posted 04 November 2017 - 10:47 PM

Thought I'd one more thing to help Dipoto in his job.  Marlins didn't exercise the option on Ichiro....so you have another Asian legend that could join the Mariners...finish his HoF career where he started it and help usher in the next Asian legend.  Could certainly help Ohtani in the transition. 



#4 dude

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 11:54 PM

So long drive today and listened to MLB Radio talk about Ohtani for 2+ hours.

 

On Friday, his agents sent out a questionnaire to all 30 teams, responses in both English and Japanese, highlighting an organizational approach to a whole bunch of areas including non-baseball stuff about the city, etc.  Basically, it's a 'make your pitch" paper which should allow Ohtani and his representation to reject probably 22+ locations immediately...including the Orioles (don't even see Baltimore filling it out).

Consensus is this is coming down to the Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners and Rangers and I don't think the Rangers are there.

 

....but if you've read or heard any of Dipoto's comments this weekend, he's already making his generic pitch (he's the only one out there) to Ohtani in terms of what he wants.  He said "we've been preparing for this moment for a year now....time for the A game" (and words to that effect).  He already hit a lot of the answers to certain questions.

 

The bottom line is if Dipoto wants to land Ohtani, he has some roster maneuvering to do.  He may not want to do some of it without having Ohtani locked up, but that likely creates other challenges for him in terms of managing things.

 

What he'll really need is a trade partner that has agreed to X, Y and Z if A, B and C happens. 

....for example, letting Ohtani use the DH is likely the key distinction between the Mariners and Dodgers.  Dipoto's recent comments share that 'they'll play Cruz in the OF sometimes' to free up DH for Ohtani to hit....but it's not really sometimes...it should be most of the time to make that pitch and if you have Cruz in LF then you are going to get hammered on your defense and risk Cruz wearing down significantly.  Cruz only has 1/14 left on his contract.  There aren't many places for Cruz to go and having a Trumbo/Cruz swap in hand if (when) you need it could be valuable to the Mariners.  You'd need another move for Healy (Pirates?) so there's things to work.

 

The biggest issue will be what I discussed above weeks ago.  They'll need to free up rotation spots and likely money to make things happen.  Again, Dipoto will need a trade partner to align his roster to get what he wants done with Ohtani.

 

fwiw, Darvish is best friends with Ohtani and they apparently work out together in the offseason.  I figured the Dodgers had the Darvish/Ohtani play in hand (genesis of Kazmir/McCarthy/Wood)....but his playoff struggles seem to have changed that.  Apparently Darvish is hoping to stay in LA, but the Angels are maybe content (lot of options) with their pitching situation too.  Yu will need to find a different home if LA teams aren't biting.

 

The Mariners may want to keep King Felix unless they need Darvish to land Ohtani....then they need to move contract.

 

Dipoto may need the Orioles, Royals and Pirates in various packages for him to land Ohtani.  They should absolutely be sitting down sooner than later and working out the packages.  Would certainly benefit the other teams to get involved.

 

....what if the Orioles could wind up with Hernandez, Paxton, Marco Gonzalez and Cruz?



#5 BSLRobShields

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:19 AM

Do you think Otani is going to make a decision based on a few hundred k?
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#6 dude

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:36 AM

Do you think Otani is going to make a decision based on a few hundred k?

 

I don't think that is a YES or NO question.

 

I think his decision goes a lot deeper than that.  It's fair to say money doesn't really matter as much since he's probably rejecting 200M guaranteed by not waiting 2 years.  He wants to start now and is betting on himself.  He'll sign as an amateur so he has to follow service rules....although, while teams specifically can't talk about money, as soon as MLB is willing to avert their eyes, he'll get a significant guaranteed contract.

 

For current pool amounts, the Yankees have ~3.5M, the Mariners ~1.5M and the Dodgers are limited to a 300k signing.

 

If I'm the team that wants to sign him, I'm stacking my deck with every factor.

 

Do I think a few hundred k will be the ultimate difference in the signing....No.....but the difference will be a few million (not hundred k)....I still think the answer is no.....but if it comes down to 2 teams....maybe Yankees and Mariners....if I'm Dipoto I don't want another team to have the $$ advantage.

 

If I'm Dipoto, I need people talking about the Mariners having the most money.  Pirates apparently have 2.3M left....so there's places he could go to add. Marlins too (Yankees just added some from Miami).

 

The Orioles had 1M.....that should have been an easy strike for Dipoto.  Go from 1.5M to 2.5M.



#7 BSLRobShields

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:43 AM

Yea but teams aren’t unloading assets and doing stupid things to get a few hundred k in slot money.

Otanis first contract is going to be meaningless. It’s all about how quickly he will get to be a FA.
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#8 dude

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:54 AM

Yea but teams aren’t unloading assets and doing stupid things to get a few hundred k in slot money.

Otanis first contract is going to be meaningless. It’s all about how quickly he will get to be a FA.

 

He's going to be a FA in 6 years, regardless of where he signs.

 

Technically, because he's signing as an amateur, his team could send him to the minors (manage his service) to get a 7th year.  That's technically.  No team that signs him will do that.  He starts in the Majors Game 1 next year.  I don't think they can actually say that (can't give him a Major League deal), but you have to say the things that Dipoto said this weekend..."we think he's a player with a skill set that is already mature at a level where he could play immediately in the majors"

 

He won't have to wait for FA to sign a huge contract.



#9 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:09 AM

MASN: Ranking several free agent pitchers

http://www.masnsport...t-pitchers.html



#10 Cisc-O's

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 09:07 PM

We want Cobb, Lynn, or Darvish.

 

 

We end up with Fiers, Garcia, and Miggy. 


I am pretty sure Shack is thinking of PBR.


#11 dude

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Posted 02 December 2017 - 01:30 PM

MASN: Ranking several free agent pitchers

http://www.masnsport...t-pitchers.html

 

It's comical to me that Melewski continues a full court press on FA pitching options.

 

The Orioles aren't signing anyone to a 4+ year deal, so you can take Cobb and Lynn off the table.

 

What group of guys in that list would be better than...

 

....Chen, McCarthy and Marco Gonzalez.  I can get those 3 guys cheaper than anything on the pitching market and I could do it now and do other good things with it.

 

...and if we were good, we could even improve on the trade options some.  Not as pathetic as sitting back and waiting for what pitchers can't sign with anyone else....but that's what we do.



#12 RZNJ

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Posted 02 December 2017 - 10:20 PM

It's comical to me that Melewski continues a full court press on FA pitching options.

 

The Orioles aren't signing anyone to a 4+ year deal, so you can take Cobb and Lynn off the table.

 

What group of guys in that list would be better than...

 

....Chen, McCarthy and Marco Gonzalez.  I can get those 3 guys cheaper than anything on the pitching market and I could do it now and do other good things with it.

 

...and if we were good, we could even improve on the trade options some.  Not as pathetic as sitting back and waiting for what pitchers can't sign with anyone else....but that's what we do.

 

Chen is guaranteed 52M over the next 3 years with and 18M vesting options based on innings for the 4th year.   

He pitched 123 innings in 2016 and 35 IP last year.

 

Brandon McCarthy pitched 23 innings in 2015.    40 IP in 2016. and 92 IP in 2017.    He makes 11.5M in 2018.

 

Marco Gonzalez  makes about minimum next year or 550K.    He turns 26 in February.    In 14 career major league starts he has a 6.46 ERA, a 1.875 WHIP,  and a .924 OPS against him.

 

 

So you have 3 HUGE gambles for your starting rotation based on durability and performance.   Is Chen a good gamble in the right kind of trade?  Maybe.    Is McCarthy a good gamble in the right kind of move?   Maybe.     Is Marco Gonzales worth taking a flier on.  Maybe.    Is it a good idea (if you want to contend) to have these guys taking up 3/5 of your rotation heading into a season?   NO

 

My question is this.   Who pitches when McCarthy and Chen break down and Gonzales sucks because that is the likely scenario.   Chen is probably the best bet (not a good one, just the lesser of 3 evils) to have some success and actually, you know, pitch well for a full season.

 

These three make Jayson Vargas, Tyler Chatwood, and Andrew Cashner  look icons of durability.


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#13 BSLMikeRandall

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Posted 04 December 2017 - 01:25 PM

On the topic of starting pitching....MLB network lists the projected rotation as Bundy, Gausman, Ynoa, Asher, Castro.

Ewwwwww.
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#14 BSLRobShields

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Posted 04 December 2017 - 01:28 PM

On the topic of starting pitching....MLB network lists the projected rotation as Bundy, Gausman, Ynoa, Asher, Castro.

Ewwwwww.

I would be fine with that if we traded everyone and were rebuilding.


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#15 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 04 December 2017 - 01:30 PM

On the topic of starting pitching....MLB network lists the projected rotation as Bundy, Gausman, Ynoa, Asher, Castro.

Ewwwwww.

Yeah, that's not gonna happen. Castro a possibility, maybe Ynoa in spots as depth. Be surprised if Asher makes the 40 man or ends up an Oriole this year. .  



#16 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 04 December 2017 - 04:22 PM

I would be fine with that if we traded everyone and were rebuilding.

Me too. But DD will sell that as going for it in 2018.....lol.



#17 BSLRobShields

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Posted 07 December 2017 - 10:07 AM

http://www.baltimore...1207-story.html
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#18 Mackus

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Posted 07 December 2017 - 10:36 AM

I'm fine with bringing Gonzo back as the 3rd best SP we add.

 

He's not good enough to be the best or 2nd best guy we add to the team.


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#19 Mackus

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Posted 07 December 2017 - 02:31 PM

Cubs sign Chatwood.  Reportedly for 3/$38M.



#20 Mackus

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Posted 07 December 2017 - 02:40 PM

Don't think anyone here suggested going that high for him.  Here is what I can find from folks:

 

 

RZNJ:  "I might go 3 years on Tyler Chatwood"

dude:  "Chatwood @ 3/27"  (this wasn't him saying what he'd spend on Chatwood, suggesting it as a possibility for the Dodgers)

dude: "I could see the Cubs at 3+/$33"

JohnnyK27: "I'd offer him 3/27"

MDtransplant757: "Only non ace type guy who I'd keep more than a year would be Chatwood"

Camden Depot:  "Chatwood 4/41.9"

BSLRobShields: "I would even be surprised at 3/30"

CA-ORIOLE: "I suppose I'd consider Chatwood a 2 year deal"






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