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This is why the team isn't built right


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#1 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 08:53 PM

I know that many don't share my opinion on this subject. But tonight MASN  gave us a stat the really drives home the problem with this team's structure.

 

They won tonight 2-1. This game was the 65th time this season that the O's have scored 3 or fewer runs. That is almost 45% of their total games played so far. 

 

Their record in those 65 games? A woeful 15-50. 35 games below .500. They are 7th in the league in runs scored so right in the middle. But their % of games where they don't score much is just pathetic. All or nothing. Exciting when it works and dreadful when it doesn't. 

 

Time to think about a different approach.


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#2 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 11:52 PM

So, let me see if I have this right Steve. You're saying if we had a higher OBP and maybe more speed (but less HRs/power) and scored the exact same amount of runs per game (on average) that the scoring distribution would be more even, resulting in more wins with the same level/performance of pitching? 


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#3 DJ MC

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 08:23 AM

To offer a comparison, since I was curious, the Astros are the leading AL team in runs scored (789, +100 on the O's). They have scored <=3 runs in 51 games, or about 35 percent of their total, with a record of 15-36. The Red Sox are the closest team to the Orioles in total runs (692). They have scored <=3 runs in 56 games, or 39 percent, with a record of 10-46.

 

So yeah, that Orioles record is not good.


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#4 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 09:06 AM

CA what I am saying is that the O's total runs scored is quite skewed. They tend to score not very many or a whole bunch. So they average out what looks to be right in the middle. But the problem is there are too many games on the low end that is masked by the games where they score lots.

 

No team is going to win lots of games when they score 3 or less. But the O's score that number too often and are worse in winning those when they do compared to other teams.

 

So yes I am suggesting that the POTENTIAL to improve the overall club is to try something different than a roster full of HR hitters. Would it work? Don't know until you try but its clear to me that the recipe they are following is too risky.



#5 Mackus

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 09:34 AM

http://www.fangraphs...elp-a-team-win/

 

Some support for the concept.

 

I can definitely believe that consistency is a virtue in both run scoring and run prevention, and that teams that reach a certain run threshold in a less volatile manner tend to outperform their expected win total based on runs compared to other teams that have the same run differential but with higher volatility.

 

There is a lot to isolate though, in order to really study it to get an idea of how much impact it has.  You'd need to basically find groups of teams that have very similar RS and RA, not just total run differential, and adjust that all for league averages over different seasons. 



#6 CA-ORIOLE

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 01:07 PM

CA what I am saying is that the O's total runs scored is quite skewed. They tend to score not very many or a whole bunch. So they average out what looks to be right in the middle. But the problem is there are too many games on the low end that is masked by the games where they score lots.

 

No team is going to win lots of games when they score 3 or less. But the O's score that number too often and are worse in winning those when they do compared to other teams.

 

So yes I am suggesting that the POTENTIAL to improve the overall club is to try something different than a roster full of HR hitters. Would it work? Don't know until you try but its clear to me that the recipe they are following is too risky.

Well, I agree that this year seems particularly "skewed/uneven". I'm not sure this year isn't somewhat of an anomaly as compared to previous seasons though. Basically I don't disagree with the supposition and Mackus provided a nice suppoting articles. Sorting it all out is another question. Besides neutralizing the pitching how do we fall out marginally in games we score more runs for example?

 

Also my guess is the team is designed to perform marginally better in its home park than other teams. You change the chemistry you change that calculus. One thing we do know is the team routinely beats projections and often Pythageron. That would suggest efficiency with scoring. That said, leveraged performance, defense (and home field) probably have factor into most of that.

 

DJ's input about BOS is pretty compelling. They have little power and use OBP and sped to score runs. They are in our division. That said they face our pitching 18 times a year and we face their pitching 18 games a year.

 

Definitely something to think about. In the end I think we're better looking to improve the offense and pitching/defense as an aggregate and within our cost control. I'm not sure trying to change "un-even run distribution" is a great strategy or even that significant. I got nothing against more OBP (certainly the most important factor in scoring runs) and good pitching though. Lets develop more because it's typically way too expensive to buy.     



#7 MDtransplant757

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 01:22 PM

It's really just the starting pitching. The OBP is concerning, but I think outside of Trumbo and Davis our offense for the most part is top of the sport. I think if we can get rid of Trumbo this offseason, then we'll see a rise in the team's overall OBP






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