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#1 dude

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 11:04 AM

Ok....so I had a longer post and accidentally deleted it (hate it when I do that, but think of the reading it saved you!)....so we're going to the Cliff Notes version and maybe pick up details later (unless it's saved somewhere and Chris can drop it back in)

 

Target 1.  Verlander

 

trade: Sedlock (+Tillman, +Jiminez) for Verlander and 27M

 

Target 2. Joe Ross

 

trade: Brach for Joe Ross, Blake Perkins and Drew Ward



#2 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 11:18 AM

I don't get the idea you are suggesting about Verlander.

Here's what I see, and what I think you are effectively trying to say.

The O's need starting pitching.
Detroit is in last place in the Central.
Verlander is being paid $28M this year, $28M next, $28M in '19, and has a $22M vesting option for '20.

Tillman and Jimenez give Detroit nothing this year obviously. Their contracts, and what's owed to Verlander the remainder of '17 basically balances out, so whatever there.

Is Detroit's prospects the next few years, that low... that they want to remove Verlander's '18 and '19 salary?
If so, getting rid of his contract, and adding Sedlock makes some sense for them.

Asking them to also give $27M makes less imo. At that point, Detroit gets essentially just 1 year of salary relief (depending on the vesting option for '20) for Sedlock.

You talked earlier this week about wanting to keep Jones here in Baltimore. You don't think Detroit feels similar about Verlander?


What about the O's side of this?

Yes, you get back a guy that was runner up in the Cy race last year, and would help the rotation now.... but is that worth giving up Sedlock? Even with Sedlock not impressing at all right now, he's got years of cheap team control associated with him.

Shouldn't the O's be more concerned with those years of control (and hoping he gets back to what led them to draft him) vs. thinking of improving the rotation today?

#3 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 11:42 AM

Joe Ross is a good candidate.  ERA is high but peripherals say that he is way better than that.  Also, he has been good early in his career.


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#4 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 11:53 AM

Verlander has been off this year, especially with his BB rate.

 

I know this is dude's way of saying you don't have to rebuild but I am not sure this is the way to do it either.

 

Verlander has actually seen his velocity jump way up this year but he is throwing less strikes than normal and isn't missing bats at his normal rate.  I can see going after him but I think they get more than dude is offering.

 

The bigger issue I have with Verlander is that this team blows and I am not that interested in adding a very expensive vet.  That is a move you make if you are close...the Orioles aren't close.

 

Ross makes way more sense.


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#5 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 11:54 AM

First I think its a joke to think the Tigers would do that trade. But lets just assume they would.

 

Rotation now becomes Verlander, Bundy, Ross, Gausman, and Miley.  Certainly better than what it is now. Or is it? Ross sucks so far this year. Could he turn it around? Maybe. But if not then you still are trotting out 3 garbage starters instead of four.

 

Bullpen loses Brach. If Britton comes back healthy AND O'Day can stay healthy it is improved over today.

 

Bottom line is that I don't see that team as being a true playoff contender. Improved yes. But not strong enough to get me to deal Brach and Sedlock.

 

And lastly, Verlander is 34 years old. I don't want his $28M salary for three more years.



#6 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 11:59 AM

Oh and the Tigers would laugh at the idea of essentially paying next year's salary.


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#7 dude

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 02:53 PM

I don't get the idea you are suggesting about Verlander.

 

I posted a Verlander discussion elsewhere (w/Steve) and pulled it plus some other stuff together here and then got frustrated when I deleted it by accident, so I just posted the final thought without the reasoning....let me try again...

 

As of maybe yesterday(?) Detroit has decided to sell.  They actually tried to sell over the winter but found zero buyers at the player costs ($$) and desired return (prospects)....so they came into the season thinking about winning....now back to selling.

 

Detroit couldn't find a buyer for Verlander in the offseason....so the fact that he's posted lesser numbers and the fact that he has full no-trade protection makes the opportunity to trade limited at best.  He's owed a ton of money still (2/56) and he only goes where he wants.

 

Verlander was born and raised (thru HS) NW of Richmond and went to college in Norfolk.  I have no idea if he grew up an Oriole fan or not, but it's probably more likely than not and regardless, he may consider this area (baseball region wise) home.  If Detroit is throwing in the towel, does he really want to hang out through his age36 season in a rebuild?....of would he rather go someplace that shows interest in winning that is more 'home'. (I don't know, maybe he considers Detroit home now in the same sense that Jones considers Baltimore home now....but I'd find out)

 

I'm suggesting trading for him and including a 2 year extension so that the deal is a 4/77 with the Orioles covering 4/50 of it. JV has the opportunity to structure it however he wants, but spreading Detroit's 27M out can encourage them significantly.

 

The Orioles could have a rotation of

Verlander (4/50)

Gausman (thru 2020)

Bundy (thru 2021)

Ross (thru 2021) 

Miley (1/12) bridge to Akin/Lee

 

basically for the next 4-5 years.  Plenty of time to build the next level of opportunity in the system and still puts you in a win now position.

 

I'll repeat something else I wrote before.  I think getting a guy like Verlander in your rotation may really help a guy like Gausman.  There's certainly some mental/emotional pressure with him being at the top of the rotation while guys like Tillman and UJ have had injury and performance issues)...changing that dynamic has the potential to bring back the Gausman we'd rather see pitch.



#8 dude

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 03:03 PM

Oh and the Tigers would laugh at the idea of essentially paying next year's salary.

 

Well....they're going to pay it and another 28M in 2019 and get nothing for him while they rebuild.

 

They couldn't trade him last offseason coming off a CY finalist year...you think they'll get more bites in a market that will be flooded with pitching when they've announced rebuilding and he's got an ERA of 4.5?

 

He's got a full no-trade so they don't even really get to make the final call if it's something he doesn't want....they just wind up eating all 56M.

 

Also, maybe current year payout is the only thing he cares about, but Kate's got a decent income probably so they likely won't go hungry if he restructures his deal in a way that encourages Detroit to make the move.  He could just defer that 27M out for them....it wouldn't be a big deal if he was getting something he wanted.



#9 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 03:04 PM

A rotation like that might work. It certainly wouldn't be any worse than it is now and I have a hard time seeing how it wouldn't at least be a bit better.

 

But worried it might still suck and then the O's are stuck with another terrible contract. Might be worth a shot, although again I can't see Detroit going for anything near that good a deal for the O's.



#10 dude

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 03:05 PM

First I think its a joke to think the Tigers would do that trade. But lets just assume they would.

 

Why would you think that?  Sedlock was a first round pick.  Trading him for Sedlock is essentially like get a compensation pick for him....which isn't even available anymore.



#11 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 03:10 PM

Why would you think that?  Sedlock was a first round pick.  Trading him for Sedlock is essentially like get a compensation pick for him....which isn't even available anymore.

Its not the Sedlock part that I think is silly. Its the Tigers taking Tillman and Jimenez. They might take Sedlock for Verlander straight across? I can't see the O's taking on his salary.



#12 dude

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 03:14 PM

Its not the Sedlock part that I think is silly. Its the Tigers taking Tillman and Jimenez. They might take Sedlock for Verlander straight across? I can't see the O's taking on his salary.

 

So what's the difference between taking back Tillman and UJ or paying out the 2017 salary?...it's the same thing.

 

The only advantage for the Tigers is that they need someone to pitch the rest of the year and even if you throw those guys out there....you hope they start doing enough (change of scenery, whatever) that you can put them on waivers and they get claimed.

 

If Detroit pays out the remaining 2017 salary, it's complete and the books close.  At least with Tillman and UJ, you have some opportunity over the next 5-6 weeks to build any interest and move $$.

 

If they put Verlander on waivers, he'd clear.



#13 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 03:23 PM

It's a silly trade idea.

Where is the evidence they tried to trade him in the offseason and couldn't? I don't ever recall seeing that.

Only thing I have found is rumors they talked to LA. Nothing substantiated or anything like that.
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#14 dude

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 03:31 PM

Where is the evidence they tried to trade him in the offseason and couldn't? I don't ever recall seeing that.

Only thing I have found is rumors they talked to LA. Nothing substantiated or anything like that.

 

It was discussed on MLB Radio all of the time during the offseason (early).  The analysts are still talking about it (today)



#15 BSLRobShields

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 06:40 PM

It was discussed on MLB Radio all of the time during the offseason (early). The analysts are still talking about it (today)


I don't buy that they couldn't move him.

Not being able to trade him and you having a high asking price are different things.

Either way, the trade makes little sense for either side.
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#16 Cisc-O's

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 02:07 PM

Cueto is on the block. He has an opt out at the end of the year so look at as a rental. What kind of package do you think he takes? It was said that he is a risk because of the opt out and if he got hurt he wouldn't opt out and the team would be on the hook so they may not get as much.

I am pretty sure Shack is thinking of PBR.


#17 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 02:24 PM

Cueto is on the block. He has an opt out at the end of the year so look at as a rental. What kind of package do you think he takes? It was said that he is a risk because of the opt out and if he got hurt he wouldn't opt out and the team would be on the hook so they may not get as much.


Cueto for Davis.


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#18 dude

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 06:31 PM

Cueto is on the block. He has an opt out at the end of the year so look at as a rental. What kind of package do you think he takes? It was said that he is a risk because of the opt out and if he got hurt he wouldn't opt out and the team would be on the hook so they may not get as much.

 

I think any team that is considering Cueto would look for some certainty out of his contract.  

 

SF may look to deal him because of their season and the potential of the opt-out, but with 4/89 remaining, I'd question whether 20+M a year is out there for him given an ok but not great 2017 season.

 

Is Cueto a guy you want leading the Orioles staff?



#19 Cisc-O's

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 08:05 PM

I think any team that is considering Cueto would look for some certainty out of his contract.

SF may look to deal him because of their season and the potential of the opt-out, but with 4/89 remaining, I'd question whether 20+M a year is out there for him given an ok but not great 2017 season.

Is Cueto a guy you want leading the Orioles staff?

He is three years younger and could be a cheaper piece.

I am pretty sure Shack is thinking of PBR.


#20 JTrea81

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Posted 26 June 2017 - 08:58 PM

Cueto is on the block. He has an opt out at the end of the year so look at as a rental. What kind of package do you think he takes? It was said that he is a risk because of the opt out and if he got hurt he wouldn't opt out and the team would be on the hook so they may not get as much.

 

The Orioles will never pay more than $13 M per season for a SP as long as Angelos owns the team so even if he has the opt-out I doubt they'd want to risk him blowing out his arm and getting stuck with the contract.

 

Also if they have to try to dump Kim to take on $2 M in salary, then there's no way they can take on Cueto's unless they dump somebody like Davis or Trumbo and that's not happening because SF has nowhere to play them.

 

The only SP the Orioles are going to be looking at are more like Scott Feldman and Clayton Richard because they think their offense will come back around to score enough runs to win and they'd be relatively cheap to acquire.  If Lance Lynn is available, possibly they go after him too because he's not making that much as well and would be a rental.






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